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Just Dial Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,025.8 Chg : -70.60 (-6.44%)
  • Target : 760.0 (18.20%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 Jan 2023

Strong paid campaign addition likely to continue

About The Stock

Just Dial (JDL) generates revenues from advertisers on various subscription and fee-based packages.

  • Reliance Retail Ventures now holds a 67% stake in JDL
  • JDL’s launch of B2B platform will be a key revenue driver in the long run
Q3FY23 Results:

JDL’s revenue rebound continued in Q3FY23.

  • Revenues grew 7.8%QoQ to ₹ 221.4 crore
  • Paid campaigns grew 3.6% QoQ while realisation grew 4.1% QoQ
  • Adjusted (ex-Esop) EBITDA grew ~380 bps QoQ to 13.3% to ₹ 29.4 crore
What should Investors do?

JDL’s share price has grown by ~1.1x over the past five years (from ~₹ 573 in January 2018 to ~₹ 643 levels in January 2023).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value JDL at ₹ 760 i.e. 23x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Continued increase in paid campaigns as well as realisation growth
  • Ramp up in sales team is expected to drive revenue growth in both B2B and B2C businesses
  • JDL will be a key beneficiary of this shift of advertising to digital medium and underpenetrated MSME (B2B) segment. The paid subscribers as a percentage of total MSME is just 1.5%
  • JDL’s B2B and B2C platforms are well placed to capture this demand leading to revenue CAGR of 23% in FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from JDL, in our IT coverage we also like Affle.

  • Key beneficiary of digital advertising spend 
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,350

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Net Sales 953.1 675.2 647.0 -2.1 842.5 1,018.1 1,192.9 22.6
EBITDA 272.9 154.9 -2.2 - 85.8 177.8 256.1 -
EBITDA Margins (%) 28.6 22.9 -0.3 - 10.2 17.5 21.5 -
Net Profit 272.3 214.2 70.8 - 123.4 213.7 277.1 57.6
EPS (|) 42.0 33.0 8.5 - 14.8 25.6 33.1 -
P/E 15.3 19.5 75.9 - 43.6 25.2 19.4 -
RoNW (%) 21.1 16.9 2.0 - 3.5 5.8 7.3 -
RoCE (%) 25.7 19.0 2.5 - 4.2 7.0 8.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of result and conference call highlights

  • The company continued to witness a rebound and reported revenue of
    | 221.4 crore for the quarter, up 7.8% QoQ & 39.3% YoY. JDL indicated that the monthly ECS plans contributed ~| 124 crore i.e. ~56% of the revenue and grew 9.7% sequentially. JDL reported deferred revenue of | 402.4 crore, up 6.3% QoQ & 23.5% YoY and indicated this revenue would be billed in eight to nine months
  • Paid campaigns increased by 18,040 to 521,880, up 3.6% QoQ while average per paid realisation grew 4.1% QoQ to | 4,242. The company reported that top 11 cities contributed ~42% of the paid campaigns and ~62% of revenue. On the pricing front, JDL indicated the price of paid campaigns in tier I cities is higher by 30-35% compared to tier II cities
  • JDL continues to improve its EBITDA and reported an EBITDA of | 27.2 crore while adjusted to Esop charges, EBITDA was at | 29.4 crore. The adjusted EBITDA margin increased ~380 bps QoQ to 13.3% due to growth in revenue and operational efficiency. The company reported other income of | 71.2 crore and PAT of | 75.3 crore with PAT margin of 34%
  • The company indicated that it has | 3900 crore cash at the end of the quarter, out of which | 2100 core was infused by Reliance Industries in the open offer while before that transaction, there was cash of | 1500-1600 crore on the standalone entity. JDL mentioned that cash would be utilised on a) focusing on core business expansion b) on certain new initiatives being done. The company also said it operates in a disruptive sector and technology changes are very rapid. Hence, it needs to continue to invest in the business. JDL also indicated that it cannot rule out use of certain portion of the cash for inorganic opportunity if any such opportunity becomes available in the market. The company also indicated that in due course it will calibrate better utilisation of the cash. Currently, cash on yield is at 7-7.5%
  • JDL mentioned that there is huge potential to increase paid campaigns in the medium to long term. The company indicated there are around 60-65 million (mn) registered SMEs in the country and more than 20 mn additional businesses in the form of gym, yoga instructors etc. Hence, the overall market opportunity is of 80-85 mn SMEs. JDL also indicated that even if it assumes 1% of them would be advertising on platforms like JD, there are potential 8-9 mn SMEs, which can advertise. The company currently has 521,000 paid campaigns. Hence, there is a huge opportunity in front of it in the medium to long term to increase this base
  • On campaign additions, the company indicated that its paid campaign additions were strong in the last four to five quarters in the 10,000-20,000 additions per quarter. It expects the momentum in campaign additions to continue but paid campaign additions may not be linear, going forward, since Q3 is generally a weak quarter for it. The company indicated that during festivals in Q3, it has witnessed muted paid campaign additions. Generally, it has picked up in subsequent quarters. This trend is likely to continue, going ahead as well. The company also indicated paid campaign growth over the last four to five quarters has been broad based. As per the company none of the category contributes more than 4 to 5% of the paid campaign mix. The company also indicated that it does not see this materially changing, going forward as well. Growth is expected to be broad based as far as paid campaigns are concerned
  • On EBITDA margins, the company indicated that as its business continues to return to normalcy after Covid disruption, margins are likely to continue their upward trajectory. The company also indicated that its business was operating in the EBITDA margin range of 25-28% in the pre-Covid era and it is likely to see EBITDA margins hovering around the same level next year this quarter. The company also indicated that since most of its hiring is done for new initiatives as well as far for core business in last four quarters, which was at an accelerated pace, the pace of hiring is now expected to moderate. JDL also indicated that EBITDA margin improvement is also a function of timing since all the cost they incurred on employees has hit P&L immediately while employee takes anywhere between six to nine months to improve productivity and subsequently revenue generation. As the productivity of an employee improves, it is expected to help lift EBITDA margins. The company also indicated this along with moderated pace of advertising (6-7% of sales) will provide operating leverage
  • The company indicated that 66% of its new customers, which it signed in Q3 are on a monthly payment basis. JDL also mentioned as a part of its strategy, it prefers customers who are paying it on a monthly basis and remain on their platform for the long term rather than customer making large upfront payments. The company also indicated that it is planning to take the monthly payment customers to 75% of the mix so that campaigning on its network remains affordable to it and is likely to improve stickiness. JDL also indicated that 55% of its customers have stuck with it for more than a year. It expects this number to scale up, going forward
  • The company reported flattish QoQ unique quarterly visitor’s growth with 0.1% growth to 156.7 million (mn). JDL reported that 85.5% of the traffic was mobile based while desktop & voice based were 10.9% & 3.6%, respectively. The company indicated that it is launching a new website with improved user experience. It would contribute to improve its traffic in desktop-based visitors. JDL’s ratings and reviews increased 2% QoQ & 11.6% YoY to 139.8 mn while total app downloads were at 32.2 mn, up 1.6% QoQ & 7% YoY
  • The company indicated that its realisable value of collection for Q3 was
    ~| 260-270 crore, which is higher than the pre-Covid levels of | 235 crore. For the YTD December 2022, the realisable value of collections was ~ |760-770 crore compared to |435-440 crore for last year which was impacted by Covid
  • The company during the quarter hired 615 net new employees taking the total sales employee strength to 11,947. JDL indicated that out the 615 employees 421 were additions to Tele marketing team while 18 & 176 were additions to Feet on Street (Marketing) & Feet on Street (JDA’s), respectively
  • The company indicated that its cost of revenue (sales team salaries & incentive to sales team/ direct revenue) was ~40-42% at pre Covid level & currently post the ramp up of sales team is at 47-48%. The company further indicated that it aims to be back to the pre-Covid level of cost of revenue & the same can be achieved as the productivity of its newly hired employees improves
  • JDL indicated that it had capitalised ~| 5 crore on the new initiatives in Q3FY23 taking the total capitalisation in 9MFY23 to ~| 27 crore as intangibles. The company further indicated that it expects to amortise some them as it goes live from Q1FY24 as per its useful life
  • In the new initiatives, the company indicated that it expects to launch JD Experts services and JDmart from Q4FY23 in major cities of India. Regarding JD shopping the company indicated that it has delayed its launch for some time as the company does not see any urgency to launch this. It also indicated that the model is not feasible on unit economics at this time. JDL indicated that at the present model the company will make ~7-8% commission from sales through JD Shopping. The company further indicated that it using this opportunity to add transaction layer to its platform wherein the users will be able to transact on the platform or use its platform for making payments to the vendors
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q3FY23   Q3FY22   YoY (%)   Q2FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
 Revenue         221.4        158.9          39.3        205.3              7.8 Revenue aided by growth in campaigns as well as realisations
Employee expenses        167.3        129.6          29.1        162.5              3.0  
             
Gross Margin          54.1          29.3          84.6          42.8            26.3  
Gross margin (%)          24.4          18.4  599 bps           20.8  357 bps   
Other expenses          26.9          24.1          11.7          25.8              4.2  
             
EBITDA          27.2            5.2        421.5          17.0            59.9  
EBITDA Margin (%)          12.3            3.3  899 bps             8.3  400 bps   
Depreciation & amortisation            8.5            7.3          16.5            7.7              9.9  
EBIT          18.7          (2.1)   (1,007.8)            9.3          101.5  
EBIT Margin (%)            8.4          (1.3)  974 bps             4.5  393 bps   
Other income (less interest)          69.0          26.5        160.8          55.0            25.6  
PBT          87.7          24.4        259.5          64.2            36.5  
Tax paid          12.4            5.0        147.4          12.1              2.5  
PAT          75.3          19.4        288.4          52.2            44.4 Profitability improved due to higher other income which was impacted in Q1 due to MTM losses on treasury portfolio

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Sujay Chavan, MMS,, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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