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Jubilant Pharmova Ltd>
  • CMP : 685.3 Chg : 4.20 (0.62%)
  • Target : 410.0 (1.23%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

30 May 2022

Challenges persist; outlook for gradual recovery…

About The Stock

Jubilant Pharmova is engaged in specialty pharmaceuticals, CDMO, generics, drug discovery and proprietary novel drug businesses.

  • In specialty pharmaceuticals, it is the third largest radiopharmaceutical manufacturer with second largest commercial radio pharmacy network in US. It is the second biggest player in the allergenic extract market in the US
  • In CDMO (CMO, APIs) Jubilant is an integrated contract manufacturer of sterile injectables, ophthalmics, otics and ointments (sterile and non-sterile), creams and liquids
  • Revenue break up (FY22)- Formulations - 19%, Radiopharma and allergy therapy –43%, CDMO & API – 31% and CRDS – 8%
Q4FY22

Generics and CDMO business were affected leading to reduction in operating leverage this quarter.

  • Revenues were down 3% YoY to ₹ 1527 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 247 crore, down 34% YoY with margins at 16.2%

Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 60 crore (down 67% YoY)

What should Investors do?

Jubilant’s share price has de-grown by ~0.9x in the past three years (from ~₹ 440 in May 2019 to ~₹ 405 in May 2022) even after considering demerger of life science ingredients business into Jubilant Ingrevia.

  • We maintain HOLD due to 1) continued muted operational performance in Generics and regulatory overhang, 2) slower-than-expected ramp-up in Radiopharma and 3) growth on new base ex-Covid contracts in CDMO
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 410 i.e. 13x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 31.4

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Expansion of capacity for sterile fill & finish at Spokane by 50% and new ophthalmic line at Montreal
  • Increase in CDMO order-book visibility amid loss of Covid opportunities
  • Ramp up in Ruby fill installations, embarking on executing turnaround plan in radio pharmacies with a target to achieve mid to high single digit EBITDA
  • Traction for Sartans post relaunch and resolving regulatory concerns over Roorkee and Nanjungud facility
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Jubilant, in CRAMs space we like Divi’s.

  • Divi’s stays a quintessential play on Indian API/CRAMs segment with its product offering, execution prowess
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 4655

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 9,110.8 5,975.8 6,098.5 6,130.2 0.4 6,129.3 6,765.7 5.1
EBITDA 1,739.0 1,548.0 1,396.5 1,156.3 -3.0 1,088.9 1,285.8 5.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 19.1 25.9 22.9 18.9 - 17.8 19.0 -
Adjusted Net Profit 854.7 710.7 595.3 413.9 -6.4 385.2 500.6 10.0
Reported EPS (|) 36.9 42.6 36.0 26.0 - 24.2 31.4 -
Adjusted EPS (|) 54.9 44.6 37.4 26.0 - 24.2 31.4 -
PE (x) 11.0 9.5 11.2 15.6 - 16.7 12.9 -
Target P/E (Diluted) 11.1 9.6 11.4 15.8 - 17.0 13.0 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.6 6.4 6.2 7.5 - 7.9 6.5 -
Price to book (x) 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.2 - 1.1 1.1 -
RoE (%) 17.8 12.7 12.6 7.8 - 6.8 8.2 -
RoCE (%) 14.3 11.7 13.7 9.0 - 7.7 9.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Weak results amid headwinds in pharmaceutical segment

  • Jubilant Pharmova’s revenues were at | 1527 crore, down 3% YoY. Generics declined 29% YoY to | 219 crore due to 1) lower volumes due to import alert at Roorkee plant, 2) pricing pressure in the US market and 3) lower Remdesivir sales. CDMO segment declined 19% YoY to | 466 crore as Covid related one-off deals tapered off and API volumes were lower resulting from stabilisation issues post shutdown in Q3FY22. Specialty pharma (which comprises Radiopharma) grew 15% YoY to | 695 crore driven by easing of Covid-19 and some customer scheduling. Contract research & development grew 51% YoY to | 142 crore on the back of robust volume growth. EBITDA margins declined 752 bps YoY to 16.2% mainly due to lower profitability in pharmaceuticals segment. EBITDA de-grew 34% YoY to | 247 crore while adjusted PAT declined 67% to | 60 crore

 

  • Jubilant Pharmova generics remain affected while remediation measures are ongoing for Roorkee import alert. Loss of Covid related opportunities led to lower revenue and profitability in the CDMO business. API business was affected by stabilisation issues post shutdown last quarter. Multiple issues are affecting several business segments. We expect near to medium term overhang to remain amid regulatory concerns for Generics and resetting of base post loss of Covid opportunities in CDMO

Q4FY22 earnings conference call highlights

  • Radiopharma business witnessed improvement in sales driven by recovery from easing of Covid-19 pandemic and some customer order scheduling. Ruby-Fill installations shows encouraging trend. Radiopharmacy business witnessed growth due to higher volumes. Turnaround plan is working well reflected by higher volumes and lower losses
  • Allergy Immunotherapy continued to report robust performance reflected in growth in volumes and business continues to operate at volumes higher than pre-Covid levels. In addition to robust growth in the US market, business is witnessing healthy growth in the non-US markets as well
  • CMO business is operating at normal pre-pandemic levels now, Covid related one-off deals tapered off. API business decline in volumes resulting from stabilisation issues after shutdown in Q3FY22
  • Generics business got affected amid lower volumes due to import alert at Roorkee plant, pricing pressure in the US market and lower Remdesivir sales due to fewer hospitalisations
  • In Radiopharma, Jubilant continue to build a long term pipeline of diagnostic and therapeutic radiopharmaceuticals and are executing a turnaround plan of radiopharmacies. Allergy business is well placed to grow strongly with healthy margins over the medium term. CMO business is likely to operate at normal pre-Covid levels in the next two to three years before new capacity comes upstream and drive volumes. Generics business’ performance is expected to improve post resolution of regulatory issues and easing of pricing pressure in the US
  • API business is planning asset replacement programmes in H1FY23 for plant upgradation and capacity expansion with volumes expected to normalise in H2FY23
  • Contract research and development services segment has received higher demand from biotech companies for integrated services, functional chemistry and DMPK, Discovery Biology and clinical trial data management support trough trial stat, Canada. Volumes increase was supported by the recently commissioned facility at Greater Noida. CRDS business will continue to grow with commissioning of the Greater Noida facility. DMPK expansion at the Greater Noida is under way.
Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY21 Q3FY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 1,527.5 1,579.8 1,310.5 -3.3 16.6   YoY decline due to headwinds in pharmaceuticals segment
Raw Material Expenses 414.8 389.1 273.4 6.6 51.7    
Gross margins (%) 72.8 75.4 79.1 -253 bps -629 bps    
Employee Expenses 510.4 475.9 524.5 7.3 -2.7    
Other Expenditure 355.1 340.3 318.3 4.3 11.5    
Total Expenditure 1,280.2 1,205.2 1,116.3 6.2 14.7    
EBITDA 247.4 374.6 194.2 -34.0 27.3    
EBITDA (%) 16.2 23.7 14.8 -752 bps 137 bps   Pharmaceuticals EBITDA margins at 16.2% and Drug Discovery Solutions EBITDA margins at 37.6%
Interest 39.5 43.3 36.6 -8.8 7.9    
Depreciation 100.6 86.2 93.3 16.6 7.7    
Other income -3.0 6.7 5.9 PL PL    
 Exceptional Items 0.0 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0    
PBT after Exceptional Items 104.3 241.4 70.2 -56.8 48.6    
Tax  46.6 83.1 19.4 -43.9 139.7    
Tax Rate (%) 44.6 34.4 27.7        
PAT before MI 57.8 158.3 50.8 -63.5 13.8    
MI -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 NA NA    
Adj. Net Profit 59.6 183.3 51.0 -67.5 16.8   YoY Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA mainly due to higher depreciation 
Key Metrics              
Generics 219.0 309.0 181.0 -29.1 21.0   YoY decline due to 1) lower volumes due to import alert at Roorkee plant, 2) pricing pressure in the US market and 3) lower Remdesivir sales 
Specialty Pharma  695.0 602.0 633.0 15.4 9.8   Radiopharma riven by recovery from easing of Covid-19 pandemic and some customer order scheduling. Allergy immunotherapy  operating at volumes higher than pre-Covid levels
CDMO 466.0 574.0 373.0 -18.8 24.9   YoY decline amid loss of revenue related to Covid opportunity 
Drug Discovery Solutions 142.0 94.0 120.0 51.1 18.3   Growth due to higher demand from biotech companies also supported by volume increase from recently commissioned facility at Greater Noida

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I/We, Siddhant Khandekar, Inter CA, Raunak Thakur, PGDM, Kush Mehta, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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