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  • CMP : 468.5 Chg : -1.20 (-0.26%)
  • Target : 170.0 (29.77%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

21 Mar 2022

Return ratios set to improve, inexpensive valuations…

About The Stock

JK Tyre (JKT) is a leading tyre manufacturer with annual capacity pegged at 5.75 lakh MT. It serves various automotive segments via India, Mexico plants with dominance in truck/bus radial (TBR) space domestically.

  • FY21 segment mix – truck/bus 56%, PCR 23%, 2-W, 3-W 5%, others 16%
  • FY21 channel mix – aftermarket 64%, OEM 18%, exports 18%
Q3FY22

The company reported steady performance in Q3FY22.

  • Consolidated net sales were up 3% QoQ to ₹ 3,076 crores.
  • EBITDA margins slid 90 bps QoQ to 8.9% amid rise in other expenses
  • Consequent PAT stood at ₹ 57 crore was lower by 14.5% QoQ
What should Investors do?

JKT’s share price has grown at ~2.3% CAGR over the past five years (from ~₹ 116 levels in February 2017), in tandem with Nifty Auto index

  • We retain BUY rating given deleveraging thrust, expected return ratio uptick
Target Price Valuation

Introducing FY24E, we now value the company at ₹ 170 i.e. 5.2x average EV/EBITDA on FY23E-24E basis (previous target price ₹ 185)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Beneficiary of expected domestic CV cyclical upswing courtesy high market share in TBR, ~63% sales contribution from the space (India operations)
  • Combined with network expansion (~750 dealers added in 9MFY22), good PV outlook & higher exports, we build 15.9% FY21-24E net sales CAGR.
  • Planned deleveraging (~45% reduction of term debt by FY25) to strengthen B/S with consequent Debt: Equity expected at 1.1x by FY24E (1.7x in FY21).
  • With calibrated capex spends and focus on exports, return ratios profile is seen improving with consequent RoCE expected at ~ 14.5% by FY24E
New Stock Ideas

Besides JKT, in our ancillary coverage we like Apollo Tyres.

  • India CV revival beneficiary focused on debt reduction, higher return ratios
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 270

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 5 year CAGR (FY16-21) FY22E FY23E FY24E 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E)
Net Sales 10,369.9 8,724.9 9,102.2 5.7 11,944.5 13,437.5 14,163.9 15.9
EBITDA 1,114.1 987.6 1,306.3 3.2 1,153.4 1,510.9 1,639.9 7.9
EBITDA Margins (%) 10.7 11.3 14.4 - 9.7 11.2 11.6 -
Net Profit 176.4 150.8 319.4 -7.3 236.5 434.0 544.1 19.4
EPS (₹) 7.8 6.1 13.0 - 9.6 17.6 22.1 -
P/E 16.8 21.4 10.1 - 13.6 7.4 5.9 -
RoNW (%) 7.7 6.5 11.9 - 8.3 13.5 14.8 -
RoCE (%) 9.2 7.4 11.8 - 9.3 12.9 14.5 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q3FY22 Results

  • Among geographies, decline for the quarter was led by Mexican geographies. India revenues increased 5% QoQ to | 2,698 crore while Mexico operations posted decline of 5% to | 520 crore.
  • As per management commentary, the company continues to focus on all three channels i.e. OEM, aftermarket and exports and is taking price hikes across product categories. Capacity utilisation for the quarter was ~89%
  • On the margin front, Gross margin decline was limited to 20 bps sequentially with rise in other expenses being a key reason for QoQ dip in EBITDA margins. India EBIT margins fell ~73 bps QoQ to 5.6%, with Mexico EBIT margins down ~105 bps QoQ to 6.7

Q3FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Company witnessed highest ever quarterly sales mark crossing ₹3,000+ crore sales in Q3FY22, with exports amounting to ₹484 crores in Q3FY22 (up 46% QoQ), 9MFY22 exports at ₹1,414 crores up 75% YoY.
  • JKT remains bullish on demand from TBR & PCR segment in coming quarters, but demand on farm side remained muted due to high base.
  • Margins remain muted due to unabated increase in raw material prices, muted demand across segment, impact of which was however partially setoff in the form of calibrated price hike with further price hike expected in coming quarters.
  • Raw material prices have been increased by ~23% YoY (as a % of sales basis, 32% YoY in absolute terms) & partially (~60%) passed on to customers in form of price hikes. Company has taken ~2-3% hike in prices in Q3FY22. Company expects further 2-3% hike in prices of raw material
  • Cavendish industries revenue for Q3FY22 stood at ₹720 crores with EBITDA at ₹32 crores; JK Tornel reported revenue for Q3FY22 at ₹512 crores up 43% QoQ with EBITDA at ₹46 crores.
  • Net debt as at Q3FY22 end stood at ~₹4,800 crores including working capital borrowings. Company remains committed at reducing its long term borrowing by 45% i.e. ~ ₹1,400 crores in coming 3 years (FY25).
  • Capacity utilization stood at ~89% for Q3FY22 with Cavendish industries capacity utilization stood at ~82%. Further till now JKT is experiencing capacity utilization at ~90% amidst improvement in demand prospects.
  • Company is planning to incur capex of ~ ₹ 540 crores over FY22-23E out of which ~₹ 200 is for debottlenecking the capacity in PCR segment, ~₹240 crores for expansion in TBR space & ~₹ 100 crores for maintenance capex. This holds incremental revenue potential of ~₹900-1,000 crores
  • Company added ~750 dealers during 9MFY22
  • JKT will focus on smart and premium tyres to improve margins & focus on preimumization of tyres in PCR & TBR segment
  • Company is present with popular OEM models like Hyundai Alcazar, TVS Apache, Maruti Suzuki Swift Dzire, Swift, WagonR, Kia Carens & Seltos among others
  • Volume growth during Q3 in TBR was high single digit with other segments remained largely flat.
  • JK Tornel market share has increased from ~7% to 10% in Q3FY22 & achieved highest sale from online advertisement channel. Further Cavendish received orders from major CV player Ashok Leyland for CV tyres.

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I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets) and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.            

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