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JK Lakshmi Cement Ltd>
  • CMP : 795.0 Chg : 12.50 (1.60%)
  • Target : 580.0 (14.85%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

20 May 2022

Higher renewables share & controlled costs lifts margin

About The Stock

JK Lakshmi mainly caters to North, West & Eastern markets with total capacity of 13.3MT (Incl. subsidiary). It has integrated units at Sirohi, Udaipur (Rajasthan), and Durg (Chhattisgarh) while grinding units are located at Jhajjar (Haryana), Cuttack (Odisha), Kalol and Surat (Gujarat).

  • It also has 105MW power plant (74MW CPP, 21MW WHRS, and 10MW Solar) that fulfils its 75% of total power requirements.

The company is now adding 2.5MT cement capacity (1.5MT clinker) through its subsidiary unit UCWL at cost of ~₹1650 crore

Q4FY22

The results were better than estimates especially on the margins front due to lower than expected fuel and other expenses.

  • Revenues were up 13.3% YoY to ₹1497.6 crore (vs I-direct est: ₹1448 crore) led by sales volume growth of 6.9% YoY to 3.1MT  
  • Absolute EBITDA improved 3.1% YoY to ₹276.2 crore (up 88.7% QoQ). EBITDA margin of 18.4% was far higher than I-direct estimate of 10.7%.
  • PAT of ₹59.2 crore was down 42.1% YoY, vs (vs our est: ₹53.6 crore)
What should Investors do?

Given the higher renewable share in the energy mix, the company is in better position to mitigate the cost related challenges. However, growth to remain a concern till the time new capacity gets commissioned

Post sharp recent rally, we downgrade our rating to HOLD

Target Price Valuation

We value co. at ₹580 i.e.6.5x FY24E EV/EBITDA

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With capacity utilisation of 90%+, volume growth to moderate going forward as the new capacity will come on stream only by Q4FY24E.
  • The recent commissioning of 10MW WHRS (total capacity now 33MW) along with increased share of alternate fuels (14%) to help contain the cost pressure to some extent in the wake of higher fuel prices
  • BS strength to remain healthy despite ongoing capex of ~₹1650 crore for its subsidiary unit UCWL.
Other highlights

Demand: Demand has moderated in April-22 due to harvesting season that led to shortage of construction labours. Further higher temperature in Haryana and Rajasthan slowed down construction work.

Cement prices & Cost: Cement price has increased ₹25-30//bag in North during April-22. In East, prices have increased by ₹15-20/bag. Further price hikes of ₹15/bag required to offset cost pressure. Fuel consumption costs came down to ₹9000/t vs ₹9500/t in Q3 due to change in fuel mix, increased WHRS and usage of low cost inventory. At current spot prices, power & fuel cost may increase further by 25%. However, at company level, expect 7-8% increase in the P&F in Q1FY23E

Capex at Company: At JKLC, no expansion currently. 10MW WHRS has been commissioned. Expect annual cost savings of ₹22-24 crore. Total WHRS capacity now stands at 33MW and share of renewable power is now 40%.

Capex at subsidiary- UCWL completed de-bottlenecking and expanded clinker capacity by 0.3MT to 1.5MT and cement by 0.6MT to 2.2MT. It is now undergoing ₹1,650 crore expansion. To add 2.5MT cement and 1.5MT clinker capacities (financed via debt and equity in the ratio of 2:1). The financial closure with the bank has already happened with loan tenure of 15 years including first 4 years of moratorium. Company to spend ₹200 crore and ₹1000 crore in FY22E and FY23E respectively towards capex and balance to be spend in FY24E. Likely commissioning is Mar-24.

On merger of JKLC & UCWL: Currently no plans of merger between UCWL and JKLC due to difference in the tax rates (UCWL @ 25% & JKLC @ 34%)

Debt position: Consolidated gross debt stood at ~₹1856 crore while net debt at ~₹650 crore.

Others: Trade sales at 56%. Fuel mix – 30% coal, 56% petcoke and 14% biomass. Lead distance – 395km. Blending ratio – 55%. MAT credit balance left is ₹260 crore, ₹44 crore consumed in FY22.
New Stock Ideas

Apart from JK Lakshmi, in our cement sector coverage we also like another north based player Mangalam Cement.

  • The enhanced clinker capacity to drive growth going forward. The benefit of various incentives to provide cost advantage.
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 425/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 3,882.0 4,044.0 4,385.0 5,041.0 9.1 5,661.0 5,926.0 8.4
EBITDA 415.0 672.0 790.0 801.0 24.5 833.0 1,070.0 15.6
EBITDA (%) 10.7 16.6 18.0 15.9 - 14.7 18.1 -
PAT 80.0 235.0 364.0 426.0 75.0 367.0 526.0 11.1
EPS (|) 6.8 22.6 33.5 38.2 - 31.2 44.7 -
EV/EBITDA 17.1 10.1 7.8 7.7 - 7.8 5.7 -
EV/Tonne ($) 94.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - 70.0 66.0 -
RoNW 5.2 15.5 19.0 18.3 - 14.8 17.9 -
RoCE 9.3 17.1 21.1 18.1 - 17.8 21.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

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