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JK Lakshmi Cement Ltd>
  • CMP : 794.3 Chg : -3.85 (-0.48%)
  • Target : 810.0 (8.58%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

15 Feb 2023

Realisation stability critical for EBITDA/t improvement

About The Stock

JK Lakshmi mainly caters to the north, west & eastern markets with total capacity of 13.9 MT (including subsidiary). It has integrated units at Sirohi, Udaipur (Rajasthan), and Durg (Chhattisgarh) while grinding units are located at Jhajjar (Haryana), Cuttack (Odisha), Kalol and Surat (Gujarat).

  • It also has 117 MW power plant (74 MW CPP, 33 MW WHRS and 10 MW Solar) that fulfils 75% of its total power requirements
  • The company is now adding 2.5 MT cement capacity (1.5 MT clinker) through its subsidiary unit UCWL at a cost of ~₹ 1650 crore (expected by Q1FY25E)
  • The company intends to take its total cement capacity to 30 MT by 2030
Q3FY23 Results:

JK Lakshmi’ result print was a mixed bag with revenues coming in better than our expectations owing to better-than-expected utilisation rates but significantly higher power and fuel expenses impacted profitability.

  • Revenue grew 25% YoY to ₹ 1488.5 crore, mainly led by higher realisations, which increased 18% YoY (1.1% QoQ)
  • Absolute EBITDA grew 15% QoQ (9% YoY) to ₹ 159.6 crore. EBITDA margins declined 155 bps YoY to 10.7% (I-direct estimate: 11.9%)
  • Owing to lower tax rate (28% in Q3FY23 vs. 35% in Q3FY22), PAT grew 24% YoY to ₹ 73.6 crore (I-direct estimate: ₹ 73.4 crore)
What should Investors do?

While growth remain a concern till the time new capacity gets commissioned, cooling down of cost pressure along with increase in renewable energy share remain key positives for margin expansion.

  • Given the recent rally in stock price (up 69% in last six months), most positives seem to have been priced in. We await a better entry price point and, hence, downgrade it from BUY to HOLD with a revised target price
Target Price and Valuation

We value the company at ₹ 810 i.e. 9.5x FY24E EV/EBITDA (earlier target price: ₹ 780).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With capacity annual utilisation of ~90%, volume growth to remain subdued till FY24E as the new capacity will come on stream by Q1FY25E
  • Constantly striving to enhance realisations with higher focus on strengthening its geographical (geo) mix
  • B/s strength to remain healthy despite ongoing capex of ~₹ 1650 crore for its subsidiary unit UCWL
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from JK Lakshmi, in our cement sector coverage, we also like central based player Heidelberg Cement.

  • The company is the cost efficient player in central India with a strong b/s. It has a good dividend yield of over 5%

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 220/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR (%) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (%)
Net Sales 3,882.3 4,043.5 4,384.7 5,040.8 9.1 6,019.2 6,381.2 12.5
EBITDA 415.0 672.4 789.7 801.3 24.5 742.8 988.5 11.1
EBITDA (%) 10.7 16.6 18.0 15.9 - 12.3 15.5 -
PAT 79.6 235.2 363.9 426.3 75.0 365.0 496.9 8.0
EPS (|) 6.8 22.6 33.5 38.2 - 31.0 42.2 -
EV/EBITDA 24.1 14.5 11.5 11.4 - 12.1 8.7 -
EV/Tonne ($) 132.9 104.9 97.9 98.1 - 97.1 93.0 -
RoNW 5.2 15.5 19.0 18.3 - 14.7 17.1 -
RoCE 9.3 17.1 21.1 18.1 - 17.0 21.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlights

  • Revenue grew 25% YoY to | 1488.5 crore (I-direct estimate: | 1434.6 crore) mainly led by higher realisations, which increased 18% YoY (1.1% QoQ) to | 5716/t (I-direct estimate: | 5770/t). Sales volume grew 6% YoY to 2.60 MT, better than our expectations of 2.49 MT. Capacity utilisation rates improved by 500 bps YoY to 89%
  • The management, in the previous call, had indicated power & fuel expense to be up ~9% QoQ. However, the cost grew sharply by 15% QoQ to | 1668/t (I-direct estimate: | 1550/t). Freight expenses also increased 4% QoQ to | 1130/t. Lower raw material expense (down 17% QoQ) and employee expenses (down 7% QoQ) partly negated the impact of higher power & freight expenses. Subsequently, overall cost of production increased marginally QoQ to | 5103/t (I-direct estimate: | 5085/t). Ensuing EBITDA/t was at | 613/t (I-direct estimate: | 685/t, Q2FY23: | 601/t, Q3FY22: | 595/t)
  • Absolute EBITDA grew 15% QoQ (9% YoY) to | 159.6 crore (I-direct estimate: | 170.2 crore). EBITDA margins declined 155 bps YoY to 10.7% (I-direct estimate: 11.9%)
  • Owing to lower tax rate (28% in Q3FY23 vs. 35% in Q3FY22), PAT grew by 24% YoY to | 73.6 crore (I-direct estimate: | 73.4 crore)
  • The companys subsidiary Udaipur Cement Works (UCWL) is expanding its cement capacity by 2.5 MT, which is likely to be commissioned in Q1FY25E. On completion of this expansion, consolidated capacity of JKLC and UCWL will improve to 16.4 MT
 

Key conference call highlights

  • The management indicated that realisations are expected to remain range bound with a positive bias as it continues to strengthen the geo mix. The efforts are to maximise sales in the western part owing to better pricing and profitability. The price gap range of 12-14% between large and mid-cement players like JKLC has now got neutralised
  • Fuel prices increased from | 2.30/Kcal to | 2.57/Kcal on a sequential basis. We expect costs to remain in a similar range in Q4FY23E (probably owing to high cost inventory). The management expects EBITDA/t to improve in Q4FY23 (on a QoQ basis) mainly on account of operational efficiency
  • Lead distance declined marginally from 401 km to 396 km (on a QoQ) basis but freight cost was up probably owing to levy of busy season surcharge
  • The company has set a target to improve its profitability by ~| 300/t through; a) efficiency in geo mix leading to better realisation (| 200/t), b) lower cost of production (| 50/t) and c) efficiency in logistics
  • The company is well secured in terms of procuring limestone. It has reserves in Sirohi, which are due for renewal in 2030 (the management is confident of getting it renewed). It has also acquired new limestone reserves in Nagaur (awaiting statuary approvals)

Owing to capacity constraints, we expect volume growth to be restricted at 3% CAGR in FY22-24E with capacity utilisation hovering in the range of 91-95%. Currently, it has an overall capacity of 13.9 MT (including 2.2 MT of UWCL) and 1 MT outsourced facility in Amethi. The company will be adding cement capacity of 2.5 MT (1.5TM clinker) at its existing plant in Udaipur (through subsidiary company UCWL) with a total capex of | 1,650 crore. The same is likely to get commissioned by the end of Q1FY25E. Hence, in the near term, the sales growth is expected to be driven mainly by realisations (9% CAGR). We expect the company to exit FY23E with EBITDA/t of | 699 (9MFY23: | 670/t) and improve by another ~ | 180/t to | 800/t mainly on account of decline in COP. We do not expect realisations to decline in FY24E on the back of healthy underlying demand in industry (8-9% growth).

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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