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  • CMP : 401.7 Chg : -0.60 (-0.15%)
  • Target : 450.0 (18.11%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

04 Feb 2023

Robust cigarettes volume growth continues…

About The Stock

ITC is biggest cigarettes & second largest FMCG company in India with ~78% of market share in cigarettes & presence in staples, biscuits, noodles, snacks, chocolate, dairy products & personal care products. The company is also present in Paperboard, printing & packaging business, agri & hotels businesses

  • The company has more than 200 manufacturing facilities in India. It has a distribution reach of over 6 million retail outlets across various trade channels & strong 25 brands across various categories  
Q3FY23 Results

ITC reported robust cigarette volume growth of ~15%  

  • Sales were up 2.7% YoY, impacted by sharp dip in agri business sales  
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 6223.2 crore, up 22% YoY, with margins at 36%
  • Consequent PAT was at ₹ 5031 crore (up 21% YoY)
What should Investors do?

ITC’s share price given return of 40% in last five years (from ₹ 271 in February 2018 to 381 in February 2023)

  • We raise our cigarette volumes growth estimate from 13% to 17% for FY23E considering market share gains from illicit cigarettes as well as strong growth in ₹10/stick price point
  • We maintain our BUY recommendation
Target Price and Valuation

We value the stock at ₹ 450 on SOTP basis valuing cigarettes business 18x FY25 earnings & FMCG business 6x FY25 sales

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • With the minimal increase in taxation in current budget, taxation (excise, GST, cess) has largely remained stable over the last five years. This has helped cigarettes industry to re-coup volumes from illicit & contrabands
  • FMCG business has seen sales cagr of 13.5% over the last three years. Most of the present foods categories (Atta, Chocolate, Juices, Biscuit, Dairy and Frozen foods) have large opportunity size, which would drive growth in future.  FMCG margin would continue to grow by 100-150 bps every year.
  • Hotels business in occupancy levels have crossed 70% & ARRs are above pre-pandemic levels. We believe would continue to grow at faster pace in near term factoring in pent-up demand
Alternate Stock Idea

We also like Dabur in our FMCG coverage.

  • Significant shift in consumption towards healthier, natural & Ayurveda based products & aggressively foray in many big categories would be driving growth for Dabur
  • Value the business at 52x FY25 earnings. BUY with a TP of ₹ 700

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22E) (%) FY23E FY24E FY25E CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 46,323.7 48,151.2 59,101.1 8.3 69,309.3 74,877.9 82,062.5 0.1
EBITDA 17,904.3 15,522.5 18,933.7 5.4 23,332.1 25,859.6 27,883.8 0.1
EBITDA Margin % 38.7 32.2 32.0 - 33.7 34.5 34.0 -
Net Profit 15,136.1 13,031.6 15,057.8 8.1 17,835.8 19,481.9 21,094.0 0.1
EPS (|) 12.5 10.7 12.4 8.1 14.7 16.0 17.4 0.1
P/E 30.5 35.5 30.7 - 25.9 23.7 21.9 -
RoNW % 23.8 22.1 24.5 - 27.7 28.7 29.9 -
RoCE (%) 29.4 28.2 31.4 - 36.0 37.5 39.1 -
- - - - - - - - -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q3FY23 Results: Cigarettes market share gain continues; Robust 15% volume growth

  • Revenue witnessed growth of 2.7% to |17265.5 crore led by strong cigarette, FMCG & Hotels business sales. Paperboard business also saw healthy growth with some moderation sequentially. Agri business sales decline after restriction on wheat & rice exports imposed in May-June 2022.

 

  • Cigarettes business witnessed strong 16.7% growth led by ~15 volume growth. ITC is continuously gaining market share with the strong growth contribution by |10/ price point & above cigarettes categories.

 

  • Stable taxation over the last five year along with deterrent actions by enforcement        agencies helping regain market from illicit cigarettes. Recent launches have been continuing to gain traction for the company.  

 

  • FMCG business saw robust growth of 18.2% led by strong growth in Foods business (Atta, Biscuits, Noodles, Snacks, Dairy, Beverages & Frozen Foods). The strong growth in the business is contributed by ~7-8% volume growth & 10-11% pricing growth (our estimate).

 

  • Education & stationary business also saw strong traction during the quarter.  Though hygiene (Savlon) continues to see moderate in growth, personal wash brands Vivel & Fiama witnessed strong growth during the quarter.

 

  • FMCG margin inched up 90 bps YoY & 50 bps sequentially. The business has clocked operating margin (EBITDA) of 10% during the quarter despite elevated input cost pressures. The company is looking to inch up FMCG margin by 100-150 bps every year

 

  • The cost management, premiumisation, supply chain agility, judicious pricing actions, fiscal incentive and digital initiatives are driving margins in FMCG business

 

  • Paperboard business saw healthy growth of 12.7% largely led by pricing growth. Value added products contributed higher to the sales led by significant 438 bps uptick in margins (EBIT: 26.3%). Investment in VAP capacity, pulp import substitution & decarbonisation of operations led to margin expansion. It scaled up utilisation of recently commissioning state of the art facility at Nadiad.

 

  • Hotels business sales witnessed 50.5% revenue growth during the quarter surpassing sales of pre-pandemic levels. Operating profit (EBITDA) grew by 91% YoY to |224 crore with margin of 31.5% (676 bps higher). The growth is drive by peak holiday time, pent up leisure demand & wedding season.

 

  • The company launched ITC Narmada in Ahmedabad in August-2022, which is a 291-key hotel. It is receiving strong demand. The company has healthy pipeline of properties under welcome hotel, Mementos, Storii and Fortune. The opening would happen in phased manner in next few quarters

 

  • Agri business sales declined by 37.1% with restriction on wheat & rice exports during the quarter. However, segment profit (EBIT) saw robust growth of 32.6% to |391 crore with 650 bps uptick in margin (12.5%). The boost in profitability was driven by high leaf tobacco exports. The company is scaling up value added product portfolio to enhance margin. ITC commissioned state of the art spice facility in Guntur during the quarter. 

 

  • Gross margin improved by 730 bps with significant improvement in Paperboard, hotels business margins. Agri segment margin also improved by 650 bps mainly due to absence of low margin wheat & rice exports & strong demand for leaf tobacco. FMCG segment margin (EBITDA) improved by 90 bps to 10%. Paperboard segment margins (EBIT) also improved significantly 438 bps during the quarter.

  • Operating profit grew by 22% to |6223.2 crore with 569 bps improvement in operating margin to 36% during the quarter. Net profit grew by 21% to |5031 crore during the quarter 

Disclaimer

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