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  • CMP : 1,424.1 Chg : 18.40 (1.31%)
  • Target : 885.0 (6.63%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 Feb 2023

Margins below par; gradual recovery expected…

About The Stock

Ipca is a fully integrated pharma company manufacturing over 350 formulations and 80 APIs.

  • Major therapeutic segments include pain management, cardiovascular and anti-diabetics, anti-infectives, anti-malarials, which together account for 75% of revenues
  • Revenue break-up Q3FY23 – Formulations: 70% (domestic: 45%, export: 25% - export generic: 12%, export institutional: 5%, export branded: 8%), API: 23% (export API: 16%, domestic API:  7%), subsidiaries: 8%
Q3FY23

Revenues in line but margins miss due to lower GPM.

  • Revenues grew 8.1% YoY to ₹ 1546 crore
  • EBITDA de-grew 29.9% YoY to ₹ 215.9 crore while EBITDA margins declined 756 bps to 14%. Increase in solvent costs impacted the margins
  • PAT declined 45% YoY to ₹ 107.8 crore
What should Investors do?

Ipca’s share price has grown at ~7% CAGR over the past three years.

  • We maintain HOLD rating due to impending margin pressure in the medium term. We also monitor stability of performances in the exports business
Target Price and Valuation

Valued at ₹ 885 i.e. 24x P/E on FY25E EPS of ₹ 37.0

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Incremental growth in other therapies (excluding malaria), especially non-communicable diseases like pain management, cardio-diabetology, etc. The overall portfolio is poised for steady growth due to launch of new divisions and additional MRs (1200) in FY23
  • Sustained traction from branded and generics exports sales with a revival in the EU likely to mitigate the US void. Better offtake and market gains in export of Sartan APIs remains key, going forward
  • Commissioning of Devas plant and additional capacities from Ratlam
  • Maiden foray into biosimilars development
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Ipca, in our healthcare coverage we like Ajanta.

  • Ajanta Pharma is a focused player in branded, launching maximum number of first time launches with new drug delivery system (NDDS)
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1385

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-FY25E)
Revenues 4,648.7 5,419.9 5,829.8 12.7 6,154.3 6,766.2 7,471.5 10.2
EBITDA 903.7 1,544.3 1,309.2 24.1 986.7 1,361.5 1,569.8 26.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 19.4 28.5 22.5 - 16.0 20.1 21.0 -
Net Profit 603.4 1,139.9 884.1 35.4 529.0 797.9 938.9 33.2
EPS (|) 23.8 44.9 34.8 - 20.8 31.4 37.0 -
PE (x) 34.5 18.3 23.6 - 39.4 26.1 22.2 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 23.1 13.2 15.5 - 20.2 14.4 12.1 -
RoNW (%) 16.6 24.2 16.1 - 8.9 12.1 12.7 -
RoCE (%) 17.6 27.1 17.4 - 12.1 15.7 16.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Results: Revenues in line but margin miss due to lower GPM

  • Revenues grew 8.1% YoY to | 1546 crore, mainly on the back of strong YoY growth of 8.8% from domestic formulations to | 702.3 crore. Export formulations grew 15.2% YoY to | 400.4 crore. In exports, branded business grew 17.3% YoY | 128.2 crore, generics business grew 5.5% YoY to | 188.9 crore and institutional business grew 40% YoY to | 83.3 crore. API sales increased 4.2% YoY to | 322.2 crore. EBITDA declined 29.9% YoY to | 215.9 crore while EBITDA margins declined 756 bps to 14%. There was a spike in input costs due to rising solvent and aluminium foil prices. PAT declined 45.3% YoY to | 107.8 crore
  • Ipca’s numbers were in line in terms of revenue but missed on our estimates on operational front and margins due to lower GPM. GPM declined 149 bps YoY to | 63.7%. Ipca remains a decent player with a judicious mix of strong domestic franchise and a spread-out exports model with healthy balance sheet. That said, we believe progress on the margins front is likely to weigh on sentiments

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

Business highlights:

  • The company has been successful on increasing the market share of its product portfolio. This was reflected from its top brands that jumped the rank during the quarter
  • The revenues from anti-malarial formulation declined during the quarter
  • The management expects growth to be driven by export formulation business, going ahead
  • Most of its products are expected to bear 15% cost reduction due to scheduled product pricing under NLEM
  • Its 104 SKUs are currently under price control, which was announced recently. This indicates 17% of the total portfolio under NLEM, rest remains out of the price control. Its impact is largely going to be felt in Q4FY23. The prices are expected to improve again from April-May onwards
  • Its focus remains on cardiovascular therapy where it intends to grow faster than the industry. It added two more divisions under the same therapy

Costs Metric:

  • Price reduction and impurity problems affected the API business. Most of the declines are expected to recover in Q4FY23
  • Major increase has come due to manufacturing costs followed by MR and promotional costs
  • Power tariff and energy costs also increased significantly due to higher consumption of coal and furnace oil
  • Hopes to improve GPM in the coming quarters as KSM price trends are now on a downtrend

Capex:

  • It has announced ~ | 400 crore of annual capital expenditure pertaining to capacity addition and maintenance related capex

Other highlights:

  • New products, current product headroom as well as capex to drive API
  • The revenues from Valsartan and Losartan are gaining traction
  • The company has showed its intent to working on flow chemistry projects. This will be conducted from Aurangabad facility
  • Testing costs for API to come down as most of it is incurred in past quarters
  • The new biotech products include biosimilars mainly to cater the global markets
  • Five products are in pipeline in biotech space out of which two are already undergoing clinical trial. Cost will be ~| 15 crore for each biotech molecule
  • Tax rate is expected to remain in the range of 29-30% in the coming years

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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