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  • CMP : 1,399.2 Chg : -31.90 (-2.23%)
  • Target : 985.0 (6.14%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

13 Aug 2022

Headwinds in exports; margins tepid…

About The Stock

Ipca is a fully integrated pharma company manufacturing over 350 formulations and 80 APIs with exports contributing 50% of revenues in FY21.
• Major therapeutic segments include pain management, cardiovascular and anti-diabetics, anti-infectives, anti-malarials, which together account for 75% of revenues
• Revenue break-up FY22 – Formulations:69% (domestic:43%, export:26% - export generic: 13%, export institutional:5%, export branded: 7%), API: 23% (export API: 17%, domestic API: 6%), subsidiaries: 7%

Q1FY23

Higher input cost and other expenditure leads to low margins.
• Sales were up 1.3% YoY to ₹ 1586 crore
• EBITDA was at ₹ 269 crore, down 35%YoY with margins at 17%
• Consequent PAT was at ₹ 143 crore (down 53% YoY)

What should Investors do?

Ipca’s share price has grown by ~1.9x over the past three years (from ~₹ 470 in August 2019 to ~₹ 928 levels in August 2022).
• We maintain HOLD rating due to challenges in exports generics and delay in traction from API exports besides impending margin pressure in medium term and valuation constraints

Target Price and Valuation

Valued at ₹ 985 i.e. 28x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 35.1

Key Triggers for future price performance

• Incremental growth in other therapies (excluding malaria), especially non-communicable diseases like pain management, cardio-diabetology, etc. The overall portfolio is poised for steady growth due to launch of new divisions and additional MRs (1200) in FY23
• Sustained traction from branded and generics exports sales with a revival in the EU likely to mitigate the US void. Better offtake and market gains in export of Sartan APIs remains key, going forward
• Commissioning of Devas plant and additional capacities from Ratlam
• US traction will take longer due to USFDA import alerts for the Ratlam facility, which is the only API source for Silvassa and Pithampur formulations

Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Ipca, in our healthcare coverage we like Ajanta.
• Ajanta Pharma is a focused player in branded, launching maximum number of first time launches with new drug delivery system (NDDS)

• BUY with target price of ₹ 1495

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 3,773.2 4,648.7 5,419.9 5,829.8 12.7 6,314.1 7,026.3 9.8
EBITDA 690.1 903.7 1,544.3 1,309.2 24.1 1,191.7 1,461.8 5.7
EBITDA Margins (%) 18.3 19.4 28.5 22.5 - 18.9 20.8 -
Net Profit 442.2 603.4 1,139.9 884.1 35.4 696.6 891.0 0.4
EPS (|) 17.4 23.8 44.9 34.8 - 27.5 35.1 -
PE (x) 53.2 39.0 20.7 26.6 - 33.8 26.4 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 34.3 26.1 14.9 17.6 - 18.9 15.0 -
Price to book (x) 7.5 6.5 5.0 4.3 - 3.9 3.4 -
RoNW (%) 14.2 16.6 24.2 16.1 - 11.4 13.0 -
RoCE (%) 15.0 17.6 27.1 17.4 - 14.3 16.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Muted revenues, margins trending low
• Revenues grew 1.3% YoY to | 1586 crore, mainly on the back of strong YoY growth of 12% in domestic formulations to | 685 crore. Export formulations de-grew 9% YoY to | 402 crore. In exports, branded business de-grew 14% YoY | 93 crore, Generics business de-grew 2% YoY to | 212 crore and institutional business de-grew 17% YoY to | 97 crore. API sales declined by 9% YoY to | 375 crore. EBITDA margins declined 962 bps YoY to 17% (I-direct estimates of 20.8%) amid 164 bps YoY decline in gross margins to 63.5% and higher other expenditure. Subsequently, EBITDA de-grew 35% YoY to | 270 crore. PAT de-grew 53% YoY to | 143 crore. Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA was mainly due to higher tax rate and depreciation
• Revenues were better than I-direct estimates but margins were a significant miss. Sequential decline of 343 bps in gross margins indicates the company is facing higher inflation in raw material than anticipated. Ipca remains a decent player with a judicious mix of strong domestic franchise and a spread out exports model with healthy balance sheet. Going ahead, with firm growth tempo in domestic formulations, good prospects both for API exports, formulation exports, we expect a further improvement in financial parameters

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

• Domestic formulations: Anti-malarial de-grew 68% YoY to | 12.6 crore in this quarter. Excluding the anti-malarial (AM) in the base of Q1FY22, Ipca’s domestic formulations grew 17%YoY. The pain segment grew 20% YoY while CVS grew 5% YoY. Ipca has created two more divisions in CVS, which caused near term disruptions in Q1. The company did not take a WPI based price hike last quarter. The management is guiding for 12-13% growth in FY23. The growth number appears lower due to high AM and anti-bacterial (Azithromycin) base last year. In India, MR count by FY23 end will be 6,000, PCPM: | 4 lakh. There is lower productivity in new divisions while older divisions PCPM ranges from | 7-12 lakhs. Ipca is also adding MRs to existing divisions to increase penetration
• Export Branded: Situation in Russia, Ukraine and Sri Lanka remains challenging. However, the management is guiding for better offtake from Russia and 13-15% growth in FY23
• Export Generic: UK sales continue to decline amid distributor issues. About 43 dossiers were registered with existing distributor, Ipca has now received approval for six products (launched) and is guiding for six more launches in FY23. About eight to 10 more approvals are expected in FY23. The company hopes for mere 5% growth in FY23
• Export tender: The tender business is expected to remain under pressure in FY23 and could see a decline of 8-10% in FY23
• API: Sales are lower due to losartan sales return. API business is expected to grow 5% in FY23. A Chinese supplier has entered the supply chain. It will take time for Ipca to ramp up market share. The Devas facility will undergo stability tests and validation process for the next six months. Subsequently data will be filed with regulators for approval before being commercialised in FY24. The management has set an aspirational target of | 2000 crore sales in three years
• Overall on a consolidated basis, growth guidance for FY23 at 9-10%


• Margins: Q1 margins came in lower as higher cost inventory was consumed in this quarter. The management is witnessing a softening of input cost and subsequently material cost as percentage of sales will go down from next quarter. Freight and fuel cost are still at a very high level. Margins were further impacted by expansion of field staff and low base of promotional activities in Q1FY22. Due to inflationary environment total impact was about | 70 crore. Cost improvement measures like internalisation of two intermediates with low cost rather than procuring from China are likely to help. The management has revised its margin guidance for FY23 to 21% and FY24 for possible 23% margins mainly due to inflationary pressures and additional cost for new field force
• Post tax, profit is expected to decline from FY23 as Ipca opts for the new tax regime of 25% due to exhaustion of MAT credits. However, cash tax is expected to be 27-28% due to taxation on promotional expenses

Disclaimer

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