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  • CMP : 1,030.0 Chg : -8.10 (-0.78%)
  • Target : 740.0 (17.46%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

01 Aug 2022

Future investments to impact EBITDA margins…

About The Stock

Intellect Design Arena (Intellect) provides software products to retail, corporate banking, insurance & treasury.

  • The company is a transition from a product company to a platform company
  • Intellect generates 55% of revenues from developed markets and rest from emerging markets
  • Recently, it saw a turnaround in margins (from 5% in FY20 to 25.1% in FY22)
Q1FY23 Results

Intellect reported Q1FY23 results.

  • US$ revenues grew 26.4% YoY to US$70 mn
  • EBITDA margins declined ~290 bps YoY to 21.6%. Ex-Esop expenses, margins were at 24%
  • Funnel is up 28% YoY to US$805 mn
What should Investors do?

Intellect’s share price has grown by ~5.7x over the past five years (from ~₹ 111 in July 2017 to ~₹ 630 levels in July 2022).

  • We maintain BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value Intellect at ₹ 740 i.e. 23x P/E on FY24E.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Strong deal wins as well as continued healthy funnel is expected to aid future revenue growth
  • Improving quality of revenues (licence + AMC + Cloud) from 46% in FY20 to 57% in FY22) bode well for long term revenue growth
  • The company is making investments to improve quarterly revenue run rate to US$90-100 mn in 10-12 quarters from now
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Intellect, in our IT coverage we also like Newgen.

  • Strong logo additions with continuous focus on enhancing annuity revenues would aid 17.2% revenue growth over FY22-24E
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 440

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 1,449.6 1,346.9 1,497.5 1,878.2 15.5 2,228.1 2,519.3 15.8
EBITDA 127.5 70.8 354.8 472.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 8.8 5.3 23.7 25.1 - 23.0 23.0 -
Net Profit 131.3 16.0 262.8 349.1
EPS (|) 10.0 1.2 19.6 25.1 - 28.4 32.2 -
P/E 63.3 529.4 32.2 25.1 - 22.2 19.6 -
RoNW (%) 12.9 1.0 18.9 19.3 - 17.9 16.9 -
RoCE (%) 12.8 2.1 20.2 22.7 - 20.7 19.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Revenue for the quarter increased 32.6% YoY to | 541.3 crore while in dollar terms revenue increased 26.4% YoY to US$70 mn. The company has 19% revenue mix in GBP. Hence, its depreciation against US$ had an impact of US$1.5 mn on revenues for the quarter
  • SAAS revenues (21.6% of mix) increased 50.6% YoY to | 117 crore while license revenues declined 2.8% YoY to | 77 crore. AMC revenues grew 9.8% YoY to | 117 crore while implementation grew 51.2% YoY to | 260 crore
  • License linked revenues (License+ SAAS+AMC). i.e. 52% of the revenue mix grew 19% YoY
  • EBITDA for the quarter declined 3% QoQ to | 117 crore while margins for the quarter were down ~210 bps QoQ to 21.6%. EBITDA margins excluding Esop were at 24%. The company indicated the following headwinds for decline in margins: i) higher employee costs & ii) higher SGA expenses led by increase in travel expenses
  • The company indicated majority of their wage hikes do happen in Q1 and Q2 but they have a quarterly wage hike. Hence, some impact would also be visible in Q3 and Q4. The company indicated that salary hikes this year have been higher than last year
  • Intellect’s current portfolio consists of 10 products & six platforms. The company continues its journey from product to platform based business. Intellect indicated that its current investments are calibrated to reach US$75 mn quarterly revenue run rate, which it is expected to hit in a couple of quarters. The company further indicated that their current focus is on growth. Hence, it requires further investments into platforms in terms of manpower and technology for its next leg of growth as it is looking to hit US$90-100 mn quarterly revenue run rate in eight to 12 quarters from now
  • The company mentioned that it refrains from giving any revenue growth guidance for FY23. However, its current investments suggest that 20% revenue growth in FY23 is achievable. The company reiterated that it can achieve market leading growth with its planned investments
  • On EBITDA margin front, the company mentioned that it earlier guided for EBITDA margins in the range of 25-30% but as it is looking to step up investments for the next leg of growth and looking to invest 4-5% of EBITDA back in the business. On the basis of elevated investments, it is now guiding for EBITDA margins in the range of 22-25% in FY23
  • The company indicated that it has not made any meaningful progress in North America region in the last few years but is now seeing traction and expects 50% revenue growth in that region in FY23 without disclosing the revenue mix from the region. After success of GeM platform, it is seeing strong traction in platform strategy in the US with AI and data based underwriting platform as well as other announced platforms with quite a few deals in POC stage. The company indicated that Canada is emerging as holistic market for Intellect with iGTB, iGCB and iRTM products as reference able products in the market
  • ·
  • The company also indicated that it believes that Europe region can provide massive opportunity led by legacy platforms upgradation which are few decades old. The Europe market has many deals in Core banking transformation. With integrated MACH compliant Digital Core, Lending and Credit cards, Intellect is positioned to compete with larger peers like Temenos and Thought Machine. Intellect’s differentiation is depth of functionalities. The company is planning to increase its sales footprint in Continental Europe to meet increasing demands
  • The company indicated that the demand is robust & the funnel has grown healthily to US$805 mn, up 11% QoQ. Intellect indicated the number of destiny deals for the company is at 64 from 61 deals in Q1FY23. Average deal size also continue to grow as it was around US$6.2 mn (+3.3% QoQ). The winning rate also improved from by 100 bps QoQ to 65% in Q1FY23. The company during the quarter won 10 new deals including five platform deals. The indicated that 11 Go Lives programs during the quarter
  • The company does not provide the attrition numbers but indicated that the attrition is declining gradually. It also indicated that attrition at senior level is less than 10%
  • Collections and DSO: Collections for Q1FY23 were at | 473 crore. Net days of sales outstanding have declined by 17 days YoY to 114 days in Q1FY23, as the company collected |100 crore by Government of India
  • Cash position: Cash & cash equivalent was | 558 crore at the end of the quarter
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q1FY23   Q1FY22   YoY (%)  Q4FY22  QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue (USD mn)           70           55 26.4            68 3.4 Revenue improved on continued healthy funnel
Revenue 541.3 408.3 32.6 509.4 6.3  
Employee expenses 265.5 210.2 26.3 250.0 6.2  
             
Gross Margin 275.8 198.1 39.2 259.4 6.3  
Gross margin (%) 51.0 48.5 244 bps 50.9 3 bps  
Other expenses 158.8 97.9 62.2 138.8 14.4  
             
EBITDA 117.0 100.2 16.7 120.6 -3.0  
EBITDA Margin (%) 21.6 24.5 -293 bps 23.7 -206 bps ex-ESOP costs of |13.2 crore, Margins were at 24%
Depreciation & amortisation 28.1 22.7 23.7 26.5 6.0  
EBIT 88.9 77.5 14.7 94.1 -5.5  
EBIT Margin (%) 16.4 19.0 -256 bps 18.5 -205 bps  
Other income 9.8 16.3 -40.2 13.3    
PBT 98.7 93.9 5.1 107.4 -8.1  
Tax paid 24.2 14.0 72.9 24.1 0.3  
PAT 68.8 73.7 -6.7 95.3 -27.8 PAT was also impacted by higher tax rate

Disclaimer

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