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  • CMP : 1,342.1 Chg : 8.40 (0.63%)
  • Target : 3,265.0 (-3.69%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

14 Feb 2023

Recruitment growth normalising; investment write-off leads to net loss…

About The Stock

Info Edge provides internet based service delivery like recruitment services (Naukri), real estate (99 acres), Jeevansathi and Shiksha.

  • Quasi play on Indian start up like Zomato, PolicyBazaar, Shoekonect, Ustra, Gramophone and job market, matrimony services & real estate market
  • Prudent capital allocation with recruitment business EBITDA margin >50%
Q3FY23 Results

Info Edge reported strong numbers on margins in Q3FY23.

  • Revenue up 4.4% QoQ aided while recruitment business grew 4.5% QoQ
  • EBITDA margin improved ~450 bps QoQ to 39.1%
  • Recruitment billing grew 2.1% QoQ & 17.7% YoY
What should Investors do?

Info Edge’s share price has grown by ~2.9x over the past five years (from ~₹ 1,173 in February 2018 to ~₹ 3,390 in February 2023).

  • We maintain HOLD rating
Target Price and Valuation

We value Info Edge at ₹ 3,265 on SOTP basis.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Steady hiring in IT, healthcare, education, telecom and improving billing trend to drive recruitment revenues
  • Continued pent up demand in housing as well as rental market driving 99acres revenues despite increasing home interest rates. Traction in Jeevansaathi, Shiksha to further drive revenues
  • Expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 18.1% over FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Info Edge, in IT coverage we also like Affle India.

  • Key beneficiary of a shift of advertising budget to digital medium, continued strong growth in converted users
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,255

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 4 Year CAGR(FY18-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Net Sales 1,272.7 1,128.0 1,562.5 14.3 2,160.4 2,376.0 2,572.1 18.1
EBITDA 402.7 302.0 474.4 15.8 776.7 829.2 871.9 22.5
EBITDA margins (%) 31.6 26.8 30.4 - 35.9 34.9 33.9 -
Net Profit 329.0 298.6 450.7 16.7 670.8 703.2 749.5 18.5
EPS (|) 26.8 23.0 35.0 - 52.1 54.6 58.2 -
P/E 126.5 148.7 4.9 - 65.1 62.1 58.2 -
RoNW (%) 13.5 6.5 3.2 - 4.7 4.8 4.9 -
RoCE (%) 18.0 8.2 4.3 - 6.3 6.3 6.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported revenue of | 555.2 crore, up 4.4% QoQ & 33.4% YoY while revenue including acquired business (Zwayam & DoSelect) was
    | 571.6 crore, up 35.6% YoY. The company in recruitment business reported revenue of | 436.8 crore, up 4.5% QoQ & 40.3% YoY and including Zwayam & Doselect the revenue was | 453.2 crore, up 43.1% YoY. 99 acres reported steady growth of 4.6% QoQ with revenue of | 72.9 while YoY it grew 24.4%. Jeevansaathi despite its change in strategy reported a marginal decline of 1.1% QoQ with a revenue of | 17.9 crore while Shiksha reported strong growth of 6.7% QoQ to | 27.6 crore

 

  • Consolidated EBITDA margins of the company improved ~450 bps QoQ (~1000 bps YoY) to 39.1% while in absolute terms the company reported an EBITDA of | 216.8 crore, up 17.8% QoQ & 79.3% YoY. The improvement in margins was on the back of lower marketing spend in 99acres & Jeevansaathi business. The marketing spends declined 10.2% QoQ to | 74.6 (| 83.1 crore in Q2FY23). EBITDA margins in the recruitment business improved ~210 bps QoQ to 61.5% while in 99acres & Jeevansaathi the company reported EBITDA losses of | 26 crore & | 26.4 crore, respectively. In both 99acres & Jeevansaathi EBITDA losses declined due to lower marketing spends and in Shiksha the company reported EBITDA of | 1.1 crore

 

  • The company, during the quarter, reported a net loss of | 84.3 crore due to exceptional item provision towards impairment of investment of | 276 crore. Excluding the exceptional item, the company reported adjusted PAT of
    | 191.7 crore

 

  • The company for the quarter reported muted billings of | 550.7 crore, up 1.4% QoQ & 14.5% YoY. Billings for recruitment business, Jeevansaathi & Shiksha grew 2.1% QoQ, 1.2% QoQ & 12.5% QoQ to | 434.6 crore, | 17.1 crore, | 27.9, respectively, crore while billings for 99 acres declined 6.1% QoQ to | 71.1 crore

 

  • The company reported a deferred revenue of | 835.4 crore, down 0.7% QoQ & up 34% YoY. The company reported that out of | 835.4 crore, recruitment business, 99 acres & Others (Jeevansaathi & Shiksha) contributed | 703.4 crore, | 94.3 crore & 37.7 crore, respectively

 

  • Recruitment business: The company indicated that IT sector hiring is now normalising after a strong last two years. The company indicated that billing for recruitment business also grew in accelerated pace in the last 1.5 years due to sudden spike in attrition. The company indicated that attrition though is still high in many IT companies, it is likely to come down in the next few quarters on gradual basis and billing is also likely to normalise. The company indicated that billing for FY24 is expected to be in the range of 15-20%. The company also indicated that in IT sector, there has been a delay in decision making and the companies are negotiating hard. The company also indicated that mass layoff in US tech sector may create an opportunity in India, if lot of that work is shifted to offshore but that at this moment there is no clear visibility on this. The company also indicated that government’s push on infra related spending may bring in non-IT jobs back in the market, which may give some more push for billings. The company also indicated that as long as India grows at 6%, it should help them grow

 

  • On 99acres business: The company indicated that it has witnessed increased traction in the real estate business in all three categories of new projects, re-sale and rental. Info Edge indicated that the real market has seen recovery from Covid phase but also cautioned that housing prices and continued interest rate making current housing prices less affordable to large section of the society and near term demand is expected to be subdued unless pricing coming back to equilibrium. The company also indicated that competitive intensity in this market remains elevated. Hence, it expects EBITDA losses to continue. The company also indicated that they are not looking to add transaction based revenue model since it has around 20,000 brokers listed on their platform and transaction led model means large chunk of them would stop doing business with the company. Hence, it would like to continue with this listing led model. Info Edge also indicated that broking model is hard to scale and is not very tech intensive

 

  • On Jeevansathi business: The company reiterated that by changing its strategy in Jeevansathi by offering free services, it continues to gain traffic shares over peers. The company also indicated that it has launched few paid products in the quarter to capitalise on the network share. The company also indicated that it is exploring a few more models for monetisation

 

  • In Shiksha business: The company indicated that Shiksha business witnessed increased traction during the quarter and also posted small EBITDA gains during the quarter. The company indicated that the growth in Shiksha business is due to students returning to campuses but the business is facing certain hurdles due to the delay in getting US visas

 

  • The company during the quarter has impaired | 276 crore for its investment in 4B Network Pvt Ltd (4B Network). 4B Network facilitates the real estate developers & brokers to communicate with each other via the Broker Network Platform. The company indicated that 4B Network has been facing liquidity issues due to excessive cash burn and in the current macro environment where the funding for startups is squeezed it is uncertain of 4B Network’s future. Hence, as a prudent policy, it is impairing the amount invested in the company

 

  • The company mentioned that it had 28 other investments in the portfolio in various startups via the AIF route and none of them are facing funding issues at this moment.

 

  • On its investment policy the company mentioned that it avoided investments in the Crypto business, Web3 & Meta as they are not fully convinced on their business models
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q3FY23   Q3FY23E   Q3FY22   YoY (%)   Q2FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 555.2 550.4 416.1 33.4 531.8 4.4 Recruitment business grew by 4.5% QoQ while 99 acres & Shiksha grew by 4.6% QoQ & 6.7% QoQ respectively
Employee expenses 226.2 233.9 186.8 21.1 225.9 0.1  
Marketing expenses 74.6 82.6 80.6 -7.4 83.1 -10.2 marketing expenses declined due to relatively lower marketing spend in 99acres & Jeevansaathi business
Network & other charges 11.1 11.0 8.1 36.3 11.3 -2.3  
Other expenses 26.5 27.5 19.7 34.7 27.6 -3.9  
               
EBITDA 216.8 195.4 120.9 79.3 184.0 17.8  
EBITDA Margin (%) 39.1 35.5 29.1 1000 bps 34.6 445 bps EBITDA margins aided by lower marketing spend
Depreciation & amortisation 11.5 11.0 9.9 16.4 10.5 9.6  
EBIT 205.3 184.4 111.0 84.9 173.5 18.3  
EBIT Margin (%) 37.0 33.5 26.7 1030 bps 32.6 435 bps  
Other income (less interest) 39.6 45.0 42.8 -7.4 49.9 -20.7  
PBT 244.9 229.4 153.8 59.2 223.5 9.6  
Tax paid 52.3 55.7 34.2 53.0 54.4 -3.9  
PAT -84.3 172.7 336.4 -125.1 168.1 -150.1 The company reported loss due to impairment of investment of |276 crore in 4B Networks Pvt. Ltd.
APAT 191.7 172.7 118.5 61.7 168.1 14.1  

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