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  • CMP : 1,342.1 Chg : 8.40 (0.63%)
  • Target : 4,590.0 (10.34%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

15 Nov 2022

IT growth normalising after acceleration in FY22…

About The Stock

Info Edge provides internet based service delivery like recruitment services (Naukri), real estate (99 acres), Jeevansathi and Shiksha.

  • Quasi play on Indian start up like Zomato, PolicyBazaar, Shoekonect, Ustra, Gramophone and job market, matrimony services & real estate market
  • Prudent capital allocation with recruitment business EBITDA margin >50%
Q2FY23 Results

Info Edge reported strong Q2FY23 results.

  • Revenue up 4.8% QoQ aided by recruitment business growth of 8% QoQ
  • EBITDA margin improved ~250 bps QoQ to 34.6%
  • Gained increased traffic in 99 acres and Jeevansathi
What should Investors do?

Info Edge’s share price has grown by ~3.5x over the past five years (from ~₹ 1,172 in November 2017 to ~₹ 4,160 in November 2022).

  • We change our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price and Valuation

We value Info Edge at ₹ 4,590 on SOTP basis.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Improving hiring trend in IT, healthcare, education, telecom and improving billing trend to drive recruitment revenues
  • Continued pent up demand in housing as well as rental market driving 99acres revenues despite increasing home interest rates. Traction in Jeevansathi, Shiksha to further drive revenues
  • Expect revenues to grow at a CAGR of 17.4% over FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from Info Edge, in IT coverage we also like Affle India.

  • Key beneficiary of a shift of advertising budget to digital medium, continued strong growth in converted users
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,350

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 1,272.7 1,128.0 1,562.5 14.3 1,951.1 2,262.8 2,525.5 17.4
EBITDA 402.7 302.0 463.7 15.3 607.9 719.6 806.3 20.2
EBITDA margins (%) 31.6 26.8 29.7 - 31.2 31.8 31.9 -
Net Profit 329.0 298.6 440.4 16.1 585.6 665.6 745.0 19.2
EPS (|) 26.8 23.0 34.2 - 45.5 51.7 57.9 -
P/E 155.3 182.5 6.0 - 91.5 80.5 71.9 -
RoNW (%) 13.5 6.5 3.2 - 4.1 4.5 4.9 -
RoCE (%) 18.0 8.2 4.2 - 5.4 6.0 6.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported revenue of | 531.8 crore, up 4.8% QoQ and 46.7% YoY while revenue including acquired business (Zwayam & DoSelect) was | 549.5 crore, up 50% YoY. Revenue for recruitment business (79% of mix) increased 8% QoQ & 56.4%YoY to | 418.1 crore while revenue including Zwayam & Doselect was | 435.8 crore, up 60.7% YoY. 99 acres continued its strong growth posting revenue of | 69.7 crore, up 5.1% QoQ & 44.4% YoY. Jeevansathi revenue continued to decline due to a change in strategy reporting revenue of | 18.1 crore, down 21% QoQ & 28.7% YoY while Shiksha revenue declined 17.3% QoQ & rose 20.3% YoY to | 25.9 crore

 

  • Consolidated EBITDA increased 12.8% QoQ to | 184 crore while corresponding margins improved ~250 bps QoQ to 34.6%. The margin improvement was due to 5.1% QoQ decline in marketing expenses (aided by lower spend in Jeevansathi business) and flat employees cost due to easing of attrition. EBITDA margins for the recruitment business improved 120 bps QoQ at 59.4% while EBITDA loss at 99acres declined to | 32.4 crore. EBITDA loss for Jeevansathi declined to | 26.6 crore despite change of strategy due to lower marketing spend while for Shiksha the company reported an EBITDA loss of | 1.8 crore

 

  • For the quarter, billing at the company level remained robust and improved 3.6% QoQ, 35% YoY to | 543 crore, aiding 2.6% QoQ growth in Naukri business to | 425.6 crore and 99 acres, which was up 23.9% YoY to | 75.7 crore. Billing for Jeevansathi & Shiksha declined 4% & 18.4% QoQ to | 16.9 crore & | 24.8 crore, respectively

 

  • The company’s deferred revenue increased 49.7% YoY to | 840.9 crore. Recruitment business reported deferred revenue growth of 56.4% YoY to
    | 706 crore while others (Jeevansathi & Shiksha) reported increase of 5% YoY, respectively, to | 38 crore

 

  • Recruitment business The company indicated that in hiring growth in IT sector in the last seven to eight quarters was very high due to high attrition aided by demand supply mismatch. The company mentioned that now attrition has started coming down. It is expected to normalise in a few quarters from now. It also mentioned that it expects growth in the IT pie of the Naukri business to normalise from here on. The company also said it would be difficult to say how fast it will moderate. It also added that the IT sector growth also depends on US market growth and current uncertainty will have some impact on IT hiring. The company mentioned that October number job index numbers can be misleading this time due to early Diwali. A clear trend can be seen from the November numbers

 

  • The company mentioned that it has not seen any layoff in the Indian IT sector so far. Info Edge also said that start up forms a very small chunk of its recruitment business and current funding issues at start-ups will not have any impact. The company also said that historical trends suggests that a recession normally has an impact on hiring for two to three quarters. Thereafter, a normalisation takes place. Info Edge also said that BFSI recruitment scale is much smaller than of IT companies’ hiring. Hence, it does not see the share of BFSI moving upward meaningfully from the current range of 6-7%

 

  • The company added that it has increased the stake in coding Ninja from 26.1% to 51%. It said it has been investing in coding ninja for a while now. Coding Ninja is in the business of education solutions wherein it offers training courses to Jobseekers. It mentioned that it is looking to expand the offering to corporates, going forward, in terms of training. The company also added that it is looking to conduct these business separately for a while and looking to integrate these businesses in the medium term. It also expects the cost of customer acquisition to come down whenever these businesses integrate in future. The company said that a very small chunk (5-6% of its revenue) in recruitment business comes from Jobseekers

 

  • The company indicated that the non IT part of the recruitment business is growing as there is pent up demand.  Since operations for a lot of companies are returning after Covid disruption, hiring here will continue to be strong for a while. Then, it is expected to normalise. Travel, retail, hospitality, telecom sectors continue to hire stronger, largely in sales/finance/marketing roles. The company expects the share of non-IT to increase, going forward, due to moderation of IT hiring

 

  • Info Edge indicated that if the recruitment business grows in the range of 15-20%, it does not see any issues in sustaining margins in the recruitment business. The management mentioned that margins are likely to come down when growth is in single digits. The company also added that the margin profile of the IT sector is higher than that of the non-IT sector

 

  • The company said that it has a small platform called ‘Jobhai.com’, which is being used by low income job seekers where the salary range is in the range of | 15,000-22,000 per month. It added that it does not make money on this platform but observed the user base is growing strong on this platform

 

  • The company indicated that big customers hire Naukri products for a year. Hence, even in case of any slowdown in their business, they are likely to cut hiring from other small portals than Naukri. It also mentioned that IT companies may have billion dollars of revenues. These companies pay less than US$0.5 mn. The company sees further improvement of wallet share here. Info Edge also said that digital talent hiring has increased substantially in the non-IT space after the pandemic. The company mentioned that at the bottom of the pyramid, customers may use Naukri products not even for a month while none of the contracts have cancellation clause attached to it

 

  • The company mentioned that it has enough growth opportunities in India as far as the recruitment business is concerned and has no plans to expand this business outside India as it can happen only through large acquisitions. It has no plans on the same

 

  • On 99acres business: The company mentioned that it has seen growth both in rentals and own home space. Info Edge further increased focus on increasing marketing spend in this business. The company continue to see strong growth in this business due to shortage of supply and also on account of price increases across markets. Info Edge is now investing in product development as competitive intensity in this space continue to high. On the broker network, the company said following revenue models 1) site visits charge per site visit, 2) facilitate home loan and earn commission. It also has a third revenue model here, which gets transaction fee from developers and is in early stage of deployment. The company mentioned that new homes sales and resales are more revenue generating for them since revenue from commercial is not a big pie for them and also rental space is tough to monetise. Info Edge also said that unprecedented salary increases in IT sectors have also propelled demand in the real estate sector. It also drives home buyers. The company said Housing.com have gained market share in recent quarters on account of higher marketing spend share. This space will continue to be like this till any consolidation opportunity emerges as no market can support three to four players for a long time. The company added that it had launched premium product recently and average revenue per user has moved up on account of the same

 

  • On Jeevansathi business: The company indicated that it gained substantial traffic market share especially in communities where there were regional players. Info Edge did cut down on its marketing spends there. Losses in this business are expected to come down in the medium term. The company indicated that it will not cut down marketing spend completely in this business. Info Edge has been formulating various models of monetisation’s for the traffic it expects to gather. It may have lost revenue market share but gained user market share substantially in all regions in which it operates

 

  • On Zomato, PolicyBazaar investment: The company indicated that it is likely to monetise these investments if i) it believes future is not bright for these companies, ii) it needs substantial cash, iii) it is looking for payout to shareholders. The company does not see any reason for divestment of these investments. It remains a topic for continuous discussion

 

  • The company announced an interim dividend of | 10 per share and set November 21 as record date for determining the eligible shareholders for payment of dividend
 
   Q2FY23   Q2FY23E   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 531.8 517.2 351.7 51.2 507.7 4.8 Revenue was aided by strong growth in recruitment business/ 99 acres 
Employee expenses 225.9 230.2 160.5 40.7 224.4 0.6  
Marketing expenses 83.1 90.0 61.7 34.6 87.6 -5.1 marketing expenses declined due to relatively lower marketing spend in Jeevansaathi business
Network & other charges 11.3 10.0 7.1 58.6 9.8 15.7  
Other expenses 27.6 23.5 16.0 71.9 22.8 21.0  
               
EBITDA 184.0 163.6 106.3 73.1 163.1 12.8  
EBITDA Margin (%) 34.6 31.6 30.2 437 bps 32.1 246 bps EBITDA margins aided by lower marketing spend
Depreciation & amortisation 10.5 10.0 9.9 5.5 9.9 5.8  
EBIT 173.5 153.6 96.4 80.0 153.2 13.2  
EBIT Margin (%) 32.6 29.7 27.4 522 bps 30.2 245 bps  
Other income (less interest) 49.9 42.0 44.0 13.4 41.9 19.3  
PBT 223.5 195.6 140.4 59.1 195.1 14.5  
Tax paid 54.4 46.7 1,077.3 -95.0 45.7 18.9  
PAT 168.1 147.9 8,355.7 -98.0 148.4 13.3  
APAT 168.1 147.9 -938.1 -117.9 148.4 13.3  

Disclaimer

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