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  • CMP : 849.9 Chg : 1.80 (0.21%)
  • Target : 1,450.0 (27.42%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

25 Apr 2023

Three year plan – focus on growth, gradual RoA uptick

About The Stock

IndusInd Bank is a Hinduja group promoted newer age private sector bank and is the fifth largest private bank in India.

  • Vehicle finance forms around 26% of overall loans
  • Strong pan-India presence with 2600 branches as on March 2022
Q4FY23

IndusInd Bank reported an in line performance.

  • Loan growth up 21.3% YoY. NII up 17.3% YoY, NIMs steady QoQ at 4.28%
  • PPP up 12.7% YoY. Lower provision leads to ~50% YoY jump in PAT
  • GNPA down 8 bps QoQ to 1.98%. Restructured book down 40 bps to 0.84%
What should Investors do?

IndusInd Bank’s share price has gained ~30% in the past two years. Higher than industry credit growth, selective lending with emphasis on high yield segments and moderation in credit cost to aid improvement in RoA to ~1.9% over FY24-25E.

  • Thus, we retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the bank at ~1.7x FY25E ABV and maintain our target price at ₹ 1450 per share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The management has introduced planning cycle - 6 (FY23–26) wherein they have guided for 18-23% YoY credit growth, mainly driven by retail (55-60% proportion) and PPOP margins to be 5.25-5.75%
  • Focus on new business verticals (home loan) to aid business growth and gain market share. Uptick in NIMs led by higher share of retail loans including micro-finance segment
  • Ramping up phygital distribution channels to keep CI ratio elevated for couple of quarters. However, improvement in credit cost will boost earnings growth and return ratio
Alternate Stock

Besides IndusInd, in our coverage we also like Axis Bank.

  • Strong liability profile with healthy capitalisation makes the bank well placed to accrue earnings growth momentum. Healthy provision cover provides comfort on smoother earnings trajectory
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1100

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 year CAGR_(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
NII 12,058.8 13,527.9 15,000.8 17,592.1 13.4 20,323.1 24,663.6 18.4
PPP 10,772.7 11,726.7 12,838.6 14,346.5 10.0 16,636.8 19,739.6 17.3
PAT 4,417.9 2,836.4 4,611.2 7,389.7 18.7 8,822.9 10,548.7 19.5
ABV (|) 473.1 541.6 591.7 677.3 - 742.9 862.8 -
P/E 17.6 30.5 18.8 11.8 - 9.8 8.2 -
P/ABV 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 - 1.5 1.3 -
RoA 1.5 0.8 1.2 1.7 - 1.8 1.9 -
RoE 14.4 7.3 10.1 14.5 - 15.4 16.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY (%) Q3FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 4,669 4,694 3,985 17.2 4,495 3.9 Driven by strong business growth
NIM (%) 4.28 4.20 4.20 8 bps 4.27 1 bps  
Other Income 2,151 2,114 1,902 13.1 2,076 3.6 Core fee grew 27% YoY
               
Net Total Income 6,820 6,808 5,887 15.8 6,572 3.8  
Staff cost 836 823 659 27.0 799 4.6  
Other Operating Expenses 2,231 2,280 1,900 17.4 2,092 6.6 CI ratio (calc) inched up at ~45%
               
PPP 3,753 3,705 3,329 12.7 3,680 2.0  
Provision 1,030 1,015 1,464 -29.6 1,065 -3.3 Loan related provisions were at 2.5% vs. 2.7%  QoQ 
PBT 2,723 2,690 1,865 46.0 2,616 4.1  
Tax Outgo 682 675 504 35.5 656 3.9  
PAT 2,041 2,015 1,361 49.9 1,959 4.2 Lower credit costs aided strong earnings growth
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 5,826 5,963 5,517 5.6 5,711 2.0 Increase led by slippages in corporate segment
NNPA 1,715 1,611 1,530 12.1 1,681 2.0  
Credit book 2,89,924 2,89,965 2,39,052 21.3 2,72,754 6.3  
Deposit book 3,36,120 3,36,443 2,93,681 14.5 3,25,278 3.3 CASA deposits up 7% YoY

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Guidance – Credit growth of 18-23% YoY to be primarily driven by retail disbursements. NIMs guidance steady at 4.15% to 4.25%. PPOP margins to be 5.25-5.75%. Credit cost guidance at 110-130 bps and RoA target of 1.9-2.2% over PC – 6
  • Advances – Growth was across segments. Loan mix skewed towards consumer segment with ~54% of total loans
  • Corporate: Growth was driven by mid & small corporates. Segments like gems & jewellery, diamonds, petroleum, services witnessed strong growth
  • MFI: Asset quality deteriorated due to higher delinquencies in north east book. Stress is largely behind and expected to see improvement from here on
  • Vehicle finance segment - Disbursements in vehicle finance were up 25% YoY at | 12500 crore. For FY23, growth was 44% YoY at | 46000 crore. Gross slippages down 40% and outlook for VF segment continue to remain strong led by healthy demand for used vehicles. The bank has ~10% market share in tractor financing
  • Out of |1600 crore total provisions, | 1300 crore utilised by the bank
  • Deposits – Retail deposits were 43% of total deposits (as per LCR). SA balance declined due to outgo of one bulky account (government account) and migration to term deposits due to higher rates
  • Out of total fee income, 72% came from consumer and balance came from corporate segment
  • CI ratio to remain elevated for the next couple of quarters at ~45% levels
  • Repricing of loans aided yield expansion thus improved NIMs. Total 51% of the book is at fixed rate
  • Exposure to telecom company (non-funded) to the tune of | 700 crore. The management said that it will not go into NPA
  • Higher slippages were on account of | 200 crore in MFI segment and one corporate account of | 175 crore
  • The bank is awaiting clarity from RBI on promoter stake increase

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA, and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                             

 

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