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  • CMP : 833.9 Chg : -11.20 (-1.33%)
  • Target : 1,450.0 (18.66%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

21 Jan 2023

In-line performance; steady growth to drive valuation

About The Stock

IndusInd Bank is a Hinduja group promoted newer age private sector bank and is the fifth largest private bank in India.

  • Vehicle finance forms around 26% of overall loans
  • Strong pan-India presence with 2384 branches as on December 2022
Q3FY23

IndusInd Bank reported a largely in line performance

  • Loan growth up 19.3% YoY. NII up 18.5% YoY, NIMs inch up 3 bps QoQ at 4.27%
  • PPP up 14.8% YoY. Lower provision leads to ~69% YoY jump in PAT.
  • GNPA down 5 bps QoQ to 2.06%. Restructured book down 24bps to 1.25%
What should Investors do?

IndusInd Bank’s share price has gained ~32% in the past two years. Continued healthy business growth with focus on risk adjusted margin to enable improvement in RoA to ~1.8-1.9% in FY24-25E which is positive.

  • Thus, we retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

Rolling to FY25E, we value the bank at ~1.6x FY25E ABV and maintain our target price at ₹ 1450 per share

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Continued strong guidance - 18-20% YoY credit growth, NIMs at 4.15-4.25% and PPOP margins to be >5%.
  • Focus on selective segments to garner fee income & granular liabilities to aid better performance. Entry in home loans to aid growth though at lower yields.
  • Focus on distribution capabilities and tech spends to keep CI elevated.
  • Management indicated that restructured book to end by Q4FY23 / Q1FY24. Adequate provision paves way for lower credit cost and thereby earnings
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides IndusInd, in our coverage we also like Axis Bank.

  • Strong liability profile with healthy capitalisation makes the bank well placed to accrue earnings growth momentum. Healthy provision cover provides comfort on smoother earnings trajectory
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1000

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
NII 12,058.8 13,527.9 15,000.8 19.2 17,377.6 20,554.7 23,892.2 16.8
PPP 10,772.7 11,726.7 12,838.6 16.7 14,318.8 16,861.3 19,668.5 15.3
PAT 4,417.9 2,836.4 4,611.2 11.8 7,213.5 8,600.4 10,000.6 29.4
ABV (|) 473.1 541.6 591.7 - 674.0 770.4 881.8 -
P/E 19.0 33.0 20.3 - 13.0 10.9 9.4 -
P/ABV 2.6 2.2 2.0 - 1.8 1.6 1.4 -
RoA 1.5 0.8 1.2 - 1.7 1.8 1.8 -
RoE 14.4 7.3 10.1 - 14.2 14.9 15.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 4,495 4,456 3,794 18.5 4,302 4.5 Driven by strong business growth
NIM (%) 4.27 4.35 4.10 17 bps 4.24 3 bps  
Other Income 2,076 2,101 1,877 10.6 2,011 3.3 Core fee grew 28% YoY
               
Net Total Income 6,572 6,557 5,670 15.9 6,313 4.1  
Staff cost 799 713 620 28.9 735 8.8  
Other Operating Expenses 2,092 2,168 1,845 13.4 2,058 1.6 CI ratio (calc) steady at ~44%
               
PPP 3,680 3,676 3,205 14.8 3,520 4.6  
Provision 1,065 1,115 1,654 -35.6 1,141 -6.7 Loan related provisions declined to 2.7% vs 3% QoQ 
PBT 2,616 2,561 1,551 68.6 2,379 10.0  
Tax Outgo 656 645 390 68.4 592 10.9  
PAT 1,959 1,915 1,161 68.7 1,787 9.7 Lower credit costs aided strong earnings growth
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 5,711 5,595 5,779 -1.2 5,567 2.6 Corporate segment GNPA down 17% QoQ
NNPA 1,681 1,536 1,633 3.0 1,584 6.2  
Credit book 2,72,754 2,71,966 2,28,583 19.3 2,60,129 4.9  
Deposit book 3,25,278 3,25,491 2,84,484 14.3 3,15,532 3.1 CASA deposits up 14% YoY

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Guidance – Credit growth of 18-20% YoY to be primarily driven by retail disbursements. segments. Within corporate bank’s focus will be on SME and MSME. CD ratio to be 85-93%. NIMs to be 4.15% to 4.25%. PPOP margins to be more than 5%.
  • Overall credit growth was driven by retail segment. Within retail, vehicle finance segment saw robust growth of 7% QoQ. Non-retail maintained a steady growth of 6% QoQ.
  • Pilot completed on home loans. Product to be launched in Q4FY23 with focus on higher disbursement. Yields on housing loans are 8.95%
  • Within vehicle segment, CV, utility, cars and construction equipment witnessed more than 40% YoY growth in disbursements.
  • MFI segment - The pace of growth in rural economy is to be slower than expected. Collection efficiency was at 99%. Gross slippages were down at ₹409 crore vs ₹ 435 crore in Q2FY23. 30-90 dpd in MFI book was at 2.4% of total book.
  • Monthly disbursement in MFI segment at ₹ 3000 crore per month. Plans to increase disbursement to ₹ 11000 crore per quarter ahead
  • Corporate segment – Loan growth was led by steel, services and petroleum segment. Yields in corporate segment improved by 37 bps. Proportion of A and above rated customers was at 74% vs 72% YoY.
  • Bulk of the corporate book is on floating rate, so interest rate transmission happens quarterly. ~40% book is linked to MCLR (ranging from 3 months to 1 year). ~40% is linked to EBLR and ~20% is linked to short term.
  • Credit cost reduced from 44 bps to 40 bps QoQ. Reduction in restructured book was driven by collections and lower slippages. The bank utilised ₹461 crore of contingent provisions. Cumulatively ₹1833 of slippages from restructured book out of which bank has utilised ₹1136 crore of contingent provisions. By end of Q4FY23 / Q1FY24 we may see end of the restructured book.
  • SA deposits contracted as customers moving their deposits to term deposits. Management remain focused on retail deposit mobilisation (including garnering senior citizen deposits).
  • SMA1 and SMA2 stood at 8bps and 24bps respectively. Increase in consumer segment NPA QoQ was mainly due to deterioration in vehicle financing portfolio.
  • Opened 64 branches during the quarter and aiming is to open ~100 more branches before Mar’23.
  • Focus on forex and real estate business enables to garner better current account relationship coupled with fee income.
  • Bank still awaiting approval from RBI on extension of MD tenure

Disclaimer

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA, and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.          

 

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