loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 844.1 Chg : 9.15 (1.10%)
  • Target : 1,350.0 (15.29%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

20 Oct 2022

Steady performance; outlook encouraging…

About The Stock

IndusInd Bank is a Hinduja group promoted newer age private sector bank and is the fifth largest private bank in India.

  • Vehicle finance forms around 26% of overall loans
  • Strong pan-India presence with 6103 touch points as on September 2022
Q2FY23

IndusInd Bank reported a largely in line performance

  • Loan growth up 17.8% YoY. NII up 17.6% YoY, NIMs inch up 3 bps QoQ at 4.24%
  • PPP up 10% YoY. Lower provision leads to 57% YoY jump in PAT
  • GNPA down 24 bps QoQ to 2.11%. Restructured book down 60 bps to 1.5%
What should Investors do?

IndusInd Bank’s share price has gained ~2x in the past two years. Robust business growth, uptick in NIM and moderation in provision seen enabling the bank to generate RoA of 1.6-1.7% in FY23-24E that seems to be positive.

  • We retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value the bank at ~1.8x FY24E ABV and revise our target price from ₹ 1330 to ₹ 1350 per share

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Revival in corporate lending and steady disbursement in retail portfolio to aid business growth. Management guidance is at 18-20%
  • Gradual transmission of rate hike, fixed rate book & deposition accretion to keep NIM 4.1-4.25% level
  • Moderation in slippages and reduction in r/s book paves way for lower credit cost. The management expects credit cost at 1.2-1.5% for FY23E
  • Focus on distribution capabilities and tech spends to keep opex elevated
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides IndusInd, in our coverage we also like Axis Bank.

  • Strong liability profile with healthy capitalisation makes the bank well placed to accrue earnings growth momentum. Healthy provision cover provides comfort on smoother earnings trajectory
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 970

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR_(FY19-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
NII 8,846.1 12,058.8 13,527.9 15,000.8 19.2 16,932.4 19,752.9 14.8
PPP 8,088.1 10,772.7 11,726.7 12,838.6 16.7 14,340.0 16,575.4 13.6
PAT 3,301.0 4,417.9 2,836.4 4,611.2 11.8 7,070.2 8,286.9 34.1
ABV (|) 405.3 473.1 541.6 591.7 - 671.5 762.6 -
P/E 21.4 18.4 31.9 19.7 - 12.8 11.0 -
P/ABV 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.0 - 1.7 1.5 -
RoA 1.3 1.5 0.8 1.2 - 1.6 1.7 -
RoE 13.1 14.4 7.3 10.1 - 13.9 14.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 4,302 4,264 3,658 17.6 4,125 4.3 Led by strong business growth
NIM (%) 4.24 4.23 4.07 17 bps 4.21 3 bps Margins inch up on account of repricing assets 
Other Income 2,011 2,041 1,837 9.5 1,929 4.3 Core fee up 24% YoY
               
Net Total Income 6,313 6,306 5,496 14.9 6,054 4.3  
Staff cost 735 722 602 22.1 660 11.3  
Other Operating Expenses 2,058 2,063 1,720 19.7 2,000 2.9 CI ratio up 245 bps YoY to 43.86% 
               
PPP 3,520 3,520 3,174 10.9 3,394 3.7  
Provision 1,141 1,168 1,703 -33.0 1,251 -8.8 Loan related provisions declined to 3% 
PBT 2,379 2,352 1,471 61.7 2,143 11.0  
Tax Outgo 592 593 358 65.5 539 9.7  
PAT 1,787 1,759 1,114 60.5 1,603 11.4 Lower credit costs result in strong growth in PAT 
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 5,567 5,623 6,245 -10.9 5,933 -6.2 GNPAs decline across segments 
NNPA 1,584 1,600 1,771 -10.6 1,661 -4.7  
Credit book 2,60,129 2,59,647 2,20,808 17.8 2,47,960 4.9  
Deposit book 3,15,532 3,15,824 2,75,288 14.6 3,02,719 4.2 CASA deposits up 15% YoY

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Guidance – Loan growth to be 18-20% YoY in FY23E (earlier guidance at 16-18%) Credit cost guidance maintained at 120-150 bps. CI ratio could inch up to ~44% in the near term but settle at 41-43% levels (tech and marketing cost to go up). Aim to increase branch to 3500 over next three years
  • Repricing of corporate book at external benchmark rate. Transmission of rate hikes undertaken in consumer book but not reflected in yields on book basis due to slower transmission and fixed rate component. Yields in MFI book up 35 bps
  • Nearly 37% of slippages (| 580 crore) is contributed by restructured book
  • Utilised | 350 crore of contingent provision in Q2FY23. Thus, outstanding contingent provision reduced to | 2650 crore. Credit cost guidance maintained at 120-150 bps
  • The bank plans to focus on the home loan segment. Plans to reach a sizeable book in the next two to three years
  • Credit card customer acquisition robust at ~80,000. Revolver rate muted at 27-29%. Yield on credit cards at 16-18%
  • Visibility in capex demand seen from cement, steel, power and real estate sector
  • Share of retail fee income at ~70% of overall fee income. Similar proportion should continue ahead
  • Headcount addition, tech spends and appraisals have kept opex elevated. The management expects CI ratio at ~44% at peak. Then it is expected to settle at 41-43% level
  • Surge in current deposit is led by dividend mandate of ~| 5000 crore. Saving deposit declined sequentially due to exit of central allocation account, which has now undertaken allocation without intermediaries
  • Has increased saving deposit rates, effective from October 1, 2022. Rate at 4% for balance less than | 1 lakh, 5% for | 1 -10 lakh and 6% for | 10 lakh plus

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA, and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.          

 

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

 

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

Read More