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Indoco Remedies Ltd>
  • CMP : 324.1 Chg : -4.95 (-1.50%)
  • Target : 440.0 (26.44%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

25 Jan 2023

Domestic formulations in line, exports impacted..

About The Stock

Indoco manufactures and markets branded formulations and APIs for the domestic and export markets. In domestic formulations, through its nine marketing divisions, the company serves a range of specialties (acute heavy).

  • Domestic formulations accounted for 54% of revenues. Major therapies are: respiratory, anti-infectives, stomatologicals, gastrointestinals and vitamins
  • Formulation exports accounted for 41% (regulated markets: 81%) of revenues while APIs contributed 4% with remaining coming from CRAMS
Q3FY23

Domestic formulations grew 12.2% YoY to ₹ ~204 crore while export formulations expanded 30% YoY to ₹ ~186 crore.

  • Sales were up 11.4% YoY to ₹ 399 crore
  • EBITDA de-grew 16.3% YoY to ₹ 61.5 crore with margins at 15.4%
  • PAT for Q3 was at ₹ 38 crore (down 16.4% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Indoco’s share price has grown at a CAGR of 15.4% over the past three years.

  • We maintain BUY on the back of 1) steady domestic business visibility, 2) strong exports guidance and 3) expected improvement in margins
Target Price and Valuation

We value Indoco Remedies at ₹ 440 i.e. 14x P/E on FY25E EPS of ₹ 31.5

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Restructuring exercise for improvement in MR productivity and therapy calibration is likely to yield productive growth in Indian formulations
  • Clearance from UK-MHRA and lifting of USFDA warning letters for Goa plant II and III is likely to improve operating leverage for export formulations
  • Indoco will benefit with market share gains in covered markets domestically while export formulations are likely to grow with a strong pipeline, visible launch schedule and robust order book
  • Niche ANDA filings in ophthalmic, injectable and controlled release OSDs in the US to scale up the US share from a low base
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Indoco, in healthcare coverage we like Ajanta.

  • It is mainly into domestic as well as exports formulations with focus on launching maximum number of first time launches.
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1385.

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-FY25E)
Revenues 1,106.6 1,241.5 1,540.8 1,712.9 10.4 1,965.3 2,235.0 14.2
EBITDA 123.2 224.3 327.3 312.2 17.7 417.0 473.5 23.1
EBITDA margins (%) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 - 0.2 0.2 -
Adjusted PAT 24.1 93.1 154.8 165.4 15.0 246.4 289.9 32.4
EPS (Adjusted) 2.6 10.1 16.8 17.9 - 26.7 31.5 -
PE (x) 133.0 34.5 20.7 19.4 - 13.0 11.1 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 27.9 15.4 10.5 11.0 - 8.0 6.7 -
RoNW (%) 3.5 12.1 17.1 15.9 - 19.8 19.4 -
RoCE (%) 4.6 11.7 17.5 15.6 - 21.9 24.7 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Results: US underperformance & MTM losses drags Q3 numbers

 

  • Revenues grew 11.4% YoY to | 399 crore. Domestic formulations grew 12.2% YoY to | 204 crore while export formulations expanded 30% YoY to              | 186 crore. EBITDA de-grew 16.3% YoY to | 61.5 crore. EBITDA margins declined 509 bps YoY to 15.4%. PAT for the quarter came in at | 38 crore, down 16.4% YoY
  • Q3 revenues were a miss on our estimates. Also GPM and EBITDA margins were missed due to rising input costs and one time MTM loss of | 14 crore. Adjusted EBITDA margins were at 18.4%. Core segments India and Europe continue to deliver good traction. We continue to monitor progress on the US front as portfolio comprises significant non-oral products

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

Business mix:

  • Traditional and new products both are seeing good demand especially from Germany, Spain, UK
  • Its product mix includes ~50% acute, 30% chronic and remaining sub chronic portfolio. The sub chronic business is expected to deliver faster growth followed by chronic and acute
  • Among therapy, cardiac, vitamins and stomatology performed relatively better YoY while respiratory and anti-infective reported lower growth
  • The company aims to target 20% growth in European markets, which remains on track
  • It has experienced stable demand for Paracetamol in the UK

Product launches:

  • Indoco has successfully launched new products namely Noxa and Dropizin.
  • Combigan was also released in the later half of October 2022. We expect its profit to start contributing from FY24
  • It has started supplying Brizolamide whose profits are booked with a lag, post sales by front end partner
  • Focus remains to reduce dossier licensing and milestone income and push its own product in the form of new launches

Capex:

  • The company will evaluate to add further capacity in the US only if there is a requirement
  • All high growth and volume products have been transferred to Baddi 1 and Baddi 3 facility for better control on efficiency
  • It does not intend to expand in European markets
  • All plants are going in for higher automation to bring down manpower costs

New Approvals/tender:

  • Its ongoing Allupurinol (German tender) will end in January 2023. It has already won new tender contract for next two years to the tune of ~| 65-70 crore per annum
  • It has applied for two additional products, but clarity is still awaited
  • There are a total of 25 products awaiting USFDA approval, 10 of which are own products, comprising both oral and sterile medications

Other highlights:

  • Other operating income included export incentive and forex fluctuation relating to MTM loss and unrealised fluctuation to an extent of | ~14 crore
  • Goa plants largely contributes to US business whereas Baddi and Aurangabad plants for European and Emerging markets, respectively
  • Goa Plant 1 has received nine observations from USFDA. Its current sales is at ~| 6 crore

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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