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Indian Oil Corporation Ltd>
  • CMP : 170.2 Chg : 1.45 (0.86%)
  • Target : 130.0 (10.17%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

19 May 2022

Healthy GRMs drive profitability…

About The Stock

Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) is India’s largest refining & marketing company with an installed refining capacity of ~70 MMT.

  • IOC operates 32062 retail outlets as of end of FY21
  • Petrol and diesel together historically constitute ~52% of marketing sales
Q4FY22

IOC’s results were lower than estimates on the profitability front.

  • Revenue increased 4.7% QoQ to ₹ 206460.9 crore (our estimate: ₹ 237522 crore). Marketing sales increased 3.7% QoQ to 21.8 MMT
  • Reported GRM was US$18.5/bbl while core GRM was US$13.5/bbl. Marketing profitability was lower than estimates as per our understanding. EBITDA was at ₹ 11627.5 crore, up 17.9% QoQ (estimate: ₹ 14005.8 crore)
  • Interest expense was higher-than-expected at ₹ 1607.2 crore. PAT was at
    ₹ 6021.9 crore, up 2.7% QoQ (estimate: ₹ 8067.4 crore)
What should Investors do?

IOC’s core GRM improved in Q4FY22. We expect it to remain healthy in the near term. However, the company has not passed on higher crude oil costs to customers while weaker marketing profitability is likely to impact earnings in the near term.

  • We change our rating on the stock from BUY to HOLD
Target Price Valuation

We value IOC at ₹ 130 i.e. average of P/E multiple:₹ 124 /share and P/BV multiple: ₹ 135/share

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Global product cracks sustaining at higher level
  • Passing on higher retail prices of petrol & diesel to customers (due to higher crude oil costs)
  • Pipeline segment profitability has been consistent over last few years
  • Consistent dividend payout
New Stock Ideas

Apart from IOC, in our oil & gas coverage we also like RIL.

  • RIL is a diversified business entity with a presence in energy, retail, digital services and media segments. Consumer business will be a growth driver for RIL while stable cash flow is expected from refining segment that will enable expansion in new energy verticals

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 3050

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22E-FY24E)
Revenues (| crore) 605,923.8 566,949.7 514,894.9 728,459.9 10.3 858,219.9 773,188.4 3.0
EBITDA (| crore) 33,826.2 18,784.7 38,068.0 43,243.8 6.3 36,445.3 39,541.5 -4.4
Net Profit (| crore) 16,894.1 1,313.2 21,836.0 24,184.1 4.8 16,559.5 17,996.2 -13.7
EPS (|) 18.4 1.4 23.8 26.3 - 18.0 19.6 -
P/E (x) 6.4 82.5 5.0 4.5 - 6.5 6.0 -
Price / Book (x) 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 - 0.8 0.8 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.2 5.8 2.8 2.5 - 3.0 2.7 -
RoCE (%) 13.5 4.8 13.3 12.9 - 8.9 9.2 -
RoE (%) 15.5 1.4 19.8 18.4 - 12.1 12.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter

Q4FY22 Results: Core refining operations report healthy profits

  • IOC’s core GRM improved to US$13.5/bbl vs. US$8.9/bbl in Q3FY22. Inventory gain of US$5/bbl supported overall profitability of segment during Q4FY22
  • Going ahead, we expect GRM at US$13.5/bbl and US$9/bbl in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
  • Crude throughput was up 4.9% QoQ to 18.3 MMT (vs. our estimate: 17.5 MMT). We estimate crude throughput at 72 MMT and 73.5 MMT in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
  • The company’s overall marketing profitability was lower than estimates as per our understanding as the company did not pass on increased crude oil costs to customers in Q4FY22
  • We expect sales at 88 MMT and 91.5 MMT in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
  • The company has declared a final dividend of | 3.6/share leading to total dividend of | 12.6/share for FY22
  • IOC’s board has approved issue of bonus shares in ratio of 1:2 i.e. one bonus share for every two existing shares
 
Variance Analysis
 
  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Total Revenues 2,06,460.9 2,37,522 1,63,605.7 26.2 1,97,172.0 4.7    
Raw materials costs 1,50,391.8 1,80,104 96,434.9 56.0 1,43,970.1 4.5    
Employees Cost 3,193.8 3,198.0 3,135.3 1.9 2,688.3 18.8    
Other Expenses 41,247.9 40,214.2 50,533.6 -18.4 40,651.5 1.5    
Total Expenditure 1,94,833.4 2,23,516 1,50,103.9 29.8 1,87,309.9 4.0    
EBITDA 11,627.5 14,005.8 13,501.8 -13.9 9,862.1 17.9   Lower than estimates due to weaker profitability in marketing segment and lower-than-expected inventory gains
EBITDA margins (%) 5.6 5.9 8.3 -262 bps 5.0 63 bps    
Depreciation 2,887.3 3,069.3 2,579.5 11.9 2,778.7 3.9    
EBIT 8,740.2 10,936.5 10,922.3 -20.0 7,083.4 23.4    
Interest 1,607.2 1,094.7 1,072.9 49.8 979.1 64.1   Higher than expected
Other Income 951.7 943.5 1,101.7 -13.6 1,375.3 -30.8    
Extra Ordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA    
PBT 8,084.7 10,785.3 10,951.1 -26.2 7,479.6 8.1    
Total Tax 2,062.8 2,717.9 2,169.8 -4.9 1,618.8 27.4    
PAT 6,021.9 8,067.4 8,781.3 -31.4 5,860.8 2.7    
                 
Key Metrics                
Exchange rate (|/$) 75.2 75.2 72.9 3.2 75.0 0.4    
Throughput (mmt) 18.3 17.5 17.6 3.8 17.4 4.9   Better than expected
Sales (mmt) 21.8 22.0 21.2 2.8 21.0 3.7   In line with estimates
GRM ($/barrel) 18.5 21.0 10.6 75.1 12.0 54.1   IOC reported inventory gain of US$5/bbl. Core GRMs were at US$13.5/bbl  

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Harshal Mehta, MTech (Biotech), Amogh Deshpande, PGDM, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

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Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

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Road No 7, MIDC,

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