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  • CMP : 775.0 Chg : 1.85 (0.24%)
  • Target : 300.0 (15.83%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

10 Nov 2022

Overall steady performance; margin expansion to be key

About The Stock

Indian Bank is one of the largest and among the better performing PSU banks in India with a total business of over ₹ 10.3 lakh crore

  • Pan-India presence with strong branch network of 5728 domestic branches
  • Diversified loan mix with RAM (retail/agri/MSME) forming ~62% to book
Q2FY23

Steady operational performance; asset quality improved.

  • Gross advances grew 13.5% YoY to ₹ 437941 crore. Deposits up 6.8% YoY with CASA growth at 7% YoY
  • NII up 14.7% YoY, 3.3% QoQ. NIMs improved 10 bps QoQ at 3.2%
  • GNPA down 83 bps QoQ to 7.3%. R/s book declined QoQ to 3.7%
What should Investors do?

Steady credit growth outlook and improvement in asset quality trend with adequate liabilities & capital position gives comfort.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock

Target Price and Valuation

Indian Bank is expected to deliver credit growth largely in line with industry and RoA of ~0.9% in FY24E. Thus, we value the bank at ~0.85x FY24E ABV and revise our target price from ₹ 250 to ₹ 300 per share

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Credit growth guidance of 10% driven by RAM segment (12-13% growth) will also aid earnings momentum
  • Improvement in CD ratio and gradual transmission of rate hike to keep margin trajectory steady at 3.2-3.25%
  • Recoveries are in line with what the management had guided for in FY23E. Hence, credit cost of <2% is achievable
  • Expect return ratios to improve gradually and, thus, aid valuations
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Indian Bank, in our coverage we also like SBI.

  • SBI is a public sector bank and also the largest bank in India with a balance sheet size of over ~ ₹ 52 lakh crore

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 700

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR_(FY19-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
NII 7,018.1 7,606.4 15,665.9 16,728.0 33.6 18,647.7 21,212.5 12.6
PPP 4,880.6 6,498.0 11,395.6 12,716.9 37.6 14,412.0 16,469.6 13.8
PAT 322.0 753.4 3,004.7 3,944.8 130.5 5,281.1 6,272.9 26.1
ABV (|) 247.1 249.3 212.2 261.6 - 288.5 345.9 -
P/E 38.6 20.9 9.7 8.2 - 6.1 5.1 -
P/ABV 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 - 0.9 0.7 -
RoA 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 - 0.8 0.8 -
RoE 1.7 4.3 9.8 11.2 - 11.8 12.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q2FY23 Q2FY22 YoY (%) Q1FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 4,684 4,083 14.7 4,534 3.3 Driven by margin expansion and decent growth in business
NIM (%) 3.20 2.89 31 bps 3.10 10 bps Yields improved 32 bps QoQ, 50 bps YoY
Other Income 1,828 1,966 -7.0 1,605 13.9  
             
Net Total Income 6,512 6,049 7.6 6,139 6.1  
Staff cost 1,777 1,713 3.7 1,539 15.4  
Other Operating Expenses 1,106 437 153.1 1,035 6.9 CI ratio largely steady YoY
             
PPP 3,629 3,275 10.8 3,564 1.8  
Provision 2,059 2,547 -19.2 2,219 -7.2 Credit cost steady on QoQ basis to 2.01%
PBT 1,571 728 115.7 1,345 16.7  
Tax Outgo 345.5 -360.8 -195.7 132.0 161.7  
PAT 1,225.2 1,089.2 12.5 1,213.4 1.0 Lower provisions lead to healthy PAT growth YoY
             
Key Metrics            
GNPA 31,959.0 36,886.0 -13.4 34,573.0 -7.6 Slippage ratio declined QoQ to 2.44% vs 3.03% 
NNPA 6,174.0 11,749.0 -47.5 8,471.0 -27.1  
Advances 4,37,941.0 3,85,730.0 13.5 4,25,203 3.0 Led by RAM segment
Deposits 5,88,860.0 5,51,472.0 6.8 5,84,251 0.8 CASA ratio up to 40.94%

 

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Overall credit growth guidance maintained at 10% YoY for FY23. Credit growth in the RAM segment is expected to be 12-13% YoY with RAM proportion in total loans to be 62%
  • Growth in corporate segment may be muted due to margin pressures. NIMs to be at ~3%
  • CD ratio to be in the range of 72-74% levels
  • GNPA, NNPA are expected at ~7%, < 2%, respectively, in FY23E. Credit cost is expected to be < 2%
  • During the quarter interest reversal was | 400 crore, which partially impacted NII
  • Out of 190 bps repo rate hike by RBI, roughly around 140 bps interest rate is passed on to customers
  • Employee cost to remain higher in H2FY23 due to wage revision provisions
  • Out of total slippages of | 2460 crore, ~| 1000 crore was from agri segment
  • Collection efficiency remains steady QoQ at 95% levels
  • Currently, there are four accounts in NARCL with exposure of | 4850 crore in which 20-25% recovery is expected
  • Earlier guidance of recovery of | 8000 crore in FY23E is maintained

Disclaimer

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA, Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.          

 

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