loader2
Partner With Us NRI
IDFC First Bank Ltd>
  • CMP : 83.4 Chg : 0.05 (0.06%)
  • Target : 56.0 (40.0%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

03 May 2022

Good quarter, encouraging guidance; CI remains key

About The Stock

IDFC First Bank was formed by the merger of the erstwhile IDFC Bank and Capital First in 2018. Retailisation of its business has been the key focus.

  • Retail and commercial funded assets form 72% of total funded assets
  • Branch network is at 641 as on March 2022
Q4FY22

Q4FY22 Results: IDFC First Bank reported a healthy operational performance.

  • GNPA down 27 bps QoQ to 3.7%; gross slippages at ₹ 1400 crore
  • NII up 36.2% YoY, NIMs up 37 bps QoQ to 6.27%, C/I steady at 76%
  • Provisions down 36% YoY; PAT up 128% YoY to ₹ 342.7 crore
  • Funded assets up 12.7% YoY at ₹ 1.3 lakh crore, retail grew 28% YoY
What should Investors do?

The IDFC First stock has given subdued returns in the past year owing to overhangs on growth & asset quality. We believe with improving outlook and as consolidation phase is behind, the same should reflect positively.

  • We retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

Target Price and Valuation: We value IDFC First Bank at ~1.4x FY24E ABV to arrive at revised target price of ₹ 56 per share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Pedalling growth with retail in focus and granular liabilities base to enable business growth as well as aid strong margin. Guidance of lower credit cost at     ~1.5% led by improved collections bode well for the earnings trajectory and, therefore, return ratios
  • Higher CI ratio is deterrent, though with opex trajectory falling back, revenue is seen leading to gradual uptick in RoA. Unknown merger timelines and valuation to keep the stock volatile
New Stock Ideas

Apart from IDFC First, in our coverage we also like CSB Bank.

  • CSB Bank has shown a meaningful transformation in its overall performance in the past few years and currently focuses on gold and SME loans
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 320

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR
(FY19-FY22)
FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR
(FY22-24E)
NII              3,199              6,076              7,380              9,706 45%            11,526            14,384 22%
Net profit (| crore)             (1,944)             (2,864)                 452                 145                1,476              2,251 293%
EPS (|)                (4.1)                (5.0) 0.8 0.2 - 2.4 3.6  
P/E (x) NM  NM  49.6 169.0   16.7 10.9  
ABV (|) 35.7 30.2 28.1 30.6   36.9 39.9  
P/ABV (x) 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3   1.1 1.0  
RoA (%)                (1.2)                (1.6) 0.3 0.1   0.7 1.0  
RoE (%)               (10.7)               (15.8) 2.7 0.7   6.4 8.7  

 

Variance Table

 

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 2,669 2,907 1,960 36.2 2,580 3.5 Driven by loan growth and margin expansion
NIM (%) 6.27 5.80 5.09 118 5.90 37  
Other Income 831 889 841 -1.2 769 8.1  
               
Net Total Income 3,500 3,795 2,801 25.0 3,349 4.5  
Staff cost 785 772 520 51.0 722 8.7  
Other Operating Expenses 1,889 2,024 1,636 15.5 1,857 1.7 Higher opex on account of increased business activities
               
PPP 826.5 998.9 645.8 28.0 769.7 7.4  
Provision 369.5 369.8 602.7 -38.7 391.9 -5.7 Lower slippages leads to lower credit cost
PBT 457.0 628.1 43.1 960.1 377.9 21.0  
Tax 114.3 157.3 -84.7 -235.0 96.8 18.1  
PAT 342.7 470.8 127.8 168.2 281.1 21.9 Aided by healthy operational performance
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 4,469.1 4,456.9 4,303.0 3.9 4,456.9 0.3  
NNPA 1,808.1 1,871.9 1,883.3 -4.0 1,914.0 -5.5  
Funded Assets 1,31,951 1,32,070 1,17,127 12.7 1,22,219 8.0 Driven by retail & commercial finance segment
Deposits 93,214 86,161 82,725 12.7 85,818 8.6  

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Sameer Sawant, MBA Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

 

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

Read More