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IDFC First Bank Ltd>
  • CMP : 84.8 Chg : 1.40 (1.68%)
  • Target : 75.0 (17.19%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

08 May 2023

Gradual decline in CI ratio to aid RoA…

About The Stock

IDFC First Bank was formed by the merger of the erstwhile IDFC Bank and Capital First in 2018. Retailisation of its business has been the key focus.

  • Retail funded assets form ~67% of total funded assets
  • Branch network is at 809 as on March 2023
Q4FY23

IDFC First Bank reported a strong performance.

  • GNPA down 45 bps QoQ to 2.51%; NNPA down 17 bps QoQ to 0.86%
  • NII up 34.7% YoY, NIMs up 28 bps QoQ to 6.41%, C/I at ~68%
  • Provisions up 7.2% QoQ; PAT at ₹ 802 crore, up >2x YoY
  • Funded assets up 24.4% YoY at ₹ 1.60 lakh crore, retail grew 32% YoY
What should Investors do?

IDFC First Bank’s stock price rose ~60% in the past one year. Credit growth continued to remain strong and ahead of industry growth coupled with a gradual improvement in cost to income and steady asset quality. RoA reached at 1.1% in FY23 and expected to improve to 1.3% next year.

  • Thus, we retain our BUY rating on the stock as valuations look reasonable.
Target Price and Valuation

With RoE expected to reach ~15% by FY25, we value IDFC First Bank at ~1.6x FY25E ABV and revise our target price to ₹ 75 per share from ₹ 70 earlier.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Rundown of high cost legacy borrowings to improve CoF and aid margins. The management guided for ~5.6% margins
  • As per management guidance CI ratio to be ~65% vs. 70% plus (currently). A gradual decline in CI ratio will be the key driver of RoA
  • Better than industry credit growth along with steady asset quality and, thus, lower credit cost to aid earning CAGR of 33%, RoA of ~1.5% in FY23-25
  • After equity infusion capital adequacy stands at 16.8%
Alternate Stock

Apart from IDFC First, in our coverage we also like CSB Bank.

  • CSB Bank has shown a meaningful transformation in its overall performance in the past few years and currently focuses on gold and SME loans
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 330

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
NII 6,075.6 7,380.3 9,706.2 12,897.1 28.5 16,358.2 20,004.9 24.5
Net profit (| crore) -2,864.2 452.3 145.5 2,434.3 - 3,361.6 4,299.5 32.9
EPS (|) -6.0 0.8 0.2 3.7 - 5.4 6.9 -
ABV (|) 30.2 28.1 30.8 36.8 - 39.9 45.7 -
P/ABV (x) 2.0 2.2 2.0 1.7 - 1.5 1.3 -
RoA (%) -1.9 0.3 0.1 1.1 - 1.3 1.5 -
RoE (%) -18.7 2.7 0.8 10.4 - 12.9 15.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY (%) Q3FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 3,597 3,510 2,669 34.7 3,285 9.5 Led by strong business growth and margins uptick
NIM (%) 6.41 6.40 6.27 14 bps 6.13 28 bps  
Other Income 1,397 1,350 831 68.1 1,152 21.3 Fee income grew 40% YoY
               
Net Total Income 4,994 4,860 3,500 42.7 4,438 12.5  
Staff cost 1,041 1,063 785 32.6 953 9.2  
Other Operating Expenses 2,395 2,456 1,889 26.8 2,224 7.7 CI ratio moderate to 68% vs. 76% in Q4FY22
               
PPP 1,558.7 1,340.6 826.5 88.6 1,260.8 23.6  
Provision 482.4 480.6 369.5 30.6 450.2 7.2 PCR largely steady on QoQ basis at ~66%
PBT 1,076.2 860.0 457.0 135.5 810.5 32.8  
Tax 273.6 210.7 114.3 139.3 205.9 32.9  
PAT 802.6 649.3 342.7 134.2 604.6 32.8 Healthy topline resylted in strong earnings growth
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 3,884.5 4,022.2 4,469.1 -13.1 4,302.6 -9.7  
NNPA 1,304.1 1,508.3 1,808.1 -27.9 1,464.2 -10.9  
Funded Assets 1,60,599 1,60,203 1,29,051 24.4 1,52,152 5.6 Mainly driven by retail segment, which was up 32% YoY
Deposits 1,36,812 1,25,839 93,214 46.8 1,23,578 10.7 CASA deposits grew 41% YoY; CASA ratio steady at ~50%

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Guidance – RoA, RoE of 1.4-1.6%, 13-15%, respectively. Credit cost at ~1.5%, CI ratio at ~65%
  • Investment gains during the quarter were mainly led by (one-off) monetisation of venture capital fund investments of | 200 crore
  • The bank utilised | 79 crore provision during the quarter
  • Cost to income - Retail segment - down from 63.4% to 55.0%, wholesale segment - down from 38.1% to 31.6%
  • Despite a rise in interest rates, traction in home loans was strong for the bank
  • Infrastructure book de-grew 32% YoY to | 4664 crore (at 2.9% of total loans vs. 5.3% in the previous year)
  • CASA and term deposits of <| 5 crore was 83% of total deposits. Retail deposits as percentage of total deposits were 76% and grew 53% YoY
  • LCR was at 120% vs. 122% in Q3YF23. The management aims to maintain LCR at current levels
  • Net slippages were down 21% and standard restructured book has further reduced to 0.6% vs. 0.9% in Q3FY23. PCR on debt book was at 25%
  • The SMA1 and SMA2 on the retail book is stable at ~1% and lower compared to the previous year (2.2%)
  • High cost borrowings reduced by | 7500 crore in last one year and now were at | 17673 crore (of which | 5100 crore is expected to run down in FY24). The management expect this to run down in the next two to three years
  • During the quarter, the bank opened 102 branches
  • Branches usually breakeven in 24 months or earlier

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