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ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,722.5 Chg : 37.45 (2.22%)
  • Target : 1,250.0 (12.61%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

19 Apr 2023

Guidance reaffirmed; sustained growth to drive valuation

About The Stock

ICICI Lombard is among the leading multi-line players in the general insurance space with ~8.2% market share on an overall basis.

  • Motor segment contributes over ~40% of total premium
  • The general insurer is among the most profitable and consistent in terms of return ratios with RoE of ~14% for a sustainable period
Q4FY23

ICICI Lombard beat earnings estimates led by lower opex.

  • Gross premium growth was at 6.8% YoY to ₹ 5339 crore
  • Claims ratio up 393 bps QoQ at 74.2%; expenses ratio steady at ~31%
  • Combined ratio at 104.2% vs. 104.4% QoQ; underwriting loss at ₹ 250 crore
  • PAT at ₹ 437 crore, up ~40% YoY. Market share steady at 8.2%
What should Investors do?

The ICICI Lombard stock has remained range bound in the last 12 months. Leadership in a market with long term growth potential remains positive. Steady market share coupled with a gradual improvement in combined ratio bodes well but sustainable delivery is awaited to gain confidence.

  • Thus, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value ICICI Lombard at ~2.1x FY25E premium (50% weight), ~1.1x FY25E float (50% weight) and revise our target price from ₹ 1300 to ₹ 1250/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Building of agency channel and recent hike in premium to aid premium growth as well as aid improvement in combined ratio in the health segment
  • Rationalisation of pricing in the motor segment and recovery in loss ratio to aid recovery in market share
  • Reaffirmation of combined ratio target at 102% in FY25E despite hardening of re-insurance rates provides confidence
  • Sustained recovery of market share and reduction in combined ratio to drive valuation. Regulatory changes could lead to near term volatility
Alternate Stock

Apart from ICICI Lombard, we like Star Health Insurance.

  • Market leader in the retail health insurance segment with ~33% market share as of December 2022
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 650

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY19-FY22) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
Gross direct premium income 13,312.8 14,003.1 17,976.9 21,025.1 16.5 25,294.8 29,553.3 18.6
Adjusted net profit 1,193.7 1,473.1 1,271.0 1,729.0 13.1 1,885.7 2,308.7 15.6
Networth 6,134.2 7,435.5 9,109.7 10,392.2 19.2 12,046.2 13,985.6 16.0
BVPS (Rs) 135.0 163.6 185.6 213.0 - 213.0 245.3 -
EPS (Rs) 26.3 32.4 25.9 32.4 - 38.4 47.0 -
P/BV (x) 8.2 6.8 6.0 5.2 - 5.2 4.5 -
P/E (x) 42.3 34.3 42.9 34.3 - 28.9 23.6 -
RoE (%) 21.0 21.3 14.5 15.3 - 15.5 16.4 -
P/Float 1.9 1.6 1.4 1.2 - 1.1 0.9 -
P/GWP 3.7 3.5 2.9 2.4 - 2.1 1.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

Results Summary (| cr) Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY % Q3FY23 QoQ % Comments
Policyholders Account              
Gross premium written 5339.7 5925.9 5000.7 6.8 5599.7 -4.6 Growth driven by motor and health
Net premium written 4047.3 4558.4 3973.4 1.9 4163.0 -2.8  
Premium Earned (Net) 3726.0 4144.0 3317.8 12.3 3792.1 -1.7 Business retention remains steady
Income from investments (net) 615.8 605.6 538.4 14.4 580.1 6.1  
Other income 913.8 935.5 780.2 17.1 -10.2 -9076.1  
Total income 5255.6 5685.1 4636.3 13.4 4362.0 20.5  
Commission 91.4 182.3 160.1 -42.9 174.4 -47.6 Commission ratio eases QoQ
Opex relating to insurance business 1119.3 1276.3 1077.4 3.9 1244.8 -10.1 Higher opex led by sales promotion expenses
Incurred claims 2766.2 2962.9 2389.3 15.8 2666.3 3.7 Claim ratio declined QoQ
Total expenses 3976.8 4421.6 3626.8 9.7 4085.5 -2.7 Combined ratio at 104.6% in 9MFY23
Underwriting profit/ (loss) -250.8 -277.6 -309.0 -18.8 -293.5 -14.5  
Operating profit/ (loss) 1278.8 1263.5 1009.6 26.7 276.5 362.5  
Shareholders Account Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY % Q3FY23 QoQ %  
Income in shareholders account 1469.8 1451.9 1174.6 25.1 484.6 203.3  
Total Expenses 897.3 968.5 764.1 17.4 19.3 4539.3  
Profit before taxes 572.5 483.3 410.5 39.5 465.3 23.1  
Provision for taxes 135.6 123.3 97.9 38.4 112.7 20.2  
Profit after tax  437.0 360.1 312.5 39.8 352.5 23.9 Steady earnings supported by premium growth
Analytical ratios (reported) Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY % Q3FY23 QoQ %  
Solvency ratio 2.51   2.46 5 bps 2.45 6 bps  
Claim ratio 74.24   72.01 222 bps 70.31 393 bps  
Expense  ratio 31.40   31.50 -10 bps 31.20 20 bps  
Net retention ratio 75.80   79.50 -370 bps 74.30 150 bps  
Combined ratio 104.20   103.20 100 bps 104.40 -20 bps  

 

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Elevated inflation in advanced economies, tightening financial conditions and ongoing geopolitical tensions may impact domestic growth. Momentum of auto sales remains strong; especially in PV category. However, pent up demand seems to have settled. The 2-W segment, in terms of volume, is still below pre pandemic levels
  • At the industry level, combined ratio for motor segment was at 115%, which was slightly higher than FY22 levels
  • Premium grew 6.7% YoY; excluding crop and one off transaction in motor segment, it grew 12.6% vs. 17.9% (industry – ex crop). One off transaction happened in Q4FY23
  • Growth in key segments continues to remain strong. The impact of global hardening on reinsurance was experienced, which may create short term disruption but in the long run it will be positive
  • Motor segment de-grew 11.5%; excluding one off transaction the growth was muted at 0.6% vs. 14.1% (industry)
  • The health segment continued to be fastest growing with 31.1% vs. 29.7% (industry)
  • In February 2023, it took a price increase in retail health product of ~19%
  • IL take care app – Incremental downloads was ~1 mn in Q4. On a QoQ basis, premium sourced through the app registered growth of 58.4%
  • PAT includes reversal of tax provision of | 128 crore in Q2FY23
  • Management reiterated that in next two years combined ratio to be at 102%
  • The company will continue to invest in tech, agency channel, etc
  • Health GDPI – | 4782 crore in FY23 vs. | 3487 crore in FY22. Health agency GDPI was | 560 crore
  • An increase in interest rate regime augurs well as portfolio gets rebalanced
  • Retail indemnity loss ratio during the quarter was ~61% vs. 64% in Q3FY23. The loss ratio will be in the range of 65-70%
  • Duration of investment book was 4.99 and YTM of the portfolio was 7.2%

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA, and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.              

 

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

 

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. Kajal Gandhi, Analyst of this report holds 195 shares in her family account.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

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ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

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