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  • CMP : 1,953.2 Chg : 3.40 (0.17%)
  • Target : 1,300.0 (8.33%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

21 Jan 2023

Mixed Q3FY23; sustained growth trigger for re-rating

About The Stock

ICICI Lombard is among the leading multi-line players in the general insurance space with ~8.6% market share on an overall basis.

  • Motor segment contributes over 40% of total premium
  • General insurer is among the most profitable and consistent in terms of return ratios with RoE of ~14% for a sustainable period.
Q3FY23

ICICI Lombard reported mixed performance

  • Gross premium growth was healthy at 17% YoY to ₹ 5493 crore
  • Claims ratio down QoQ by 250 bps at 70.3%; opex ratio largely steady at ~30%
  • Combined ratio at 104.4% vs. 105.1% QoQ; underwriting loss at ₹ 293 crore
  • PAT at ₹ 352 crore, up 11% YoY. ~20 bps gain in market share
What should Investors do?

Since our initiation in March 2022, the stock has largely remained flat post some rally. Leadership in a market with long term growth potential remains positive, however, sustained market share along with gradual improvement in combined ratio is awaited for gaining confidence.

  • Thus, we maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation
  • Rolling to FY25E, we value ICICI Lombard at 2.1x FY25E premium (50% weight), 1.1x FY25E float (50% weight) and maintain our target price at ₹ 1300/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Aggressive agency hiring to aid growth in health business, while rationalisation of pricing in motor segment to lead healthy premium uptick
  • Investment in strengthening distribution & digital capabilities to keep opex at current run rate. Thus, combined ratio to witness gradual improvement, especially from FY24E onwards as investments start yielding growth
  • Competitive intensity remains high. Regulatory changes could lead to near term volatility
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from ICICI Lombard, we like Star Health Insurance.

  • Market leader in the retail health insurance segment with ~33% market share, as of Sept 2022
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 850

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR (FY19 - FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22 - FY25E)
Gross direct premium income 13,312.8 14,003.1 17,976.9 7.5 21,809.2 25,589.3 30,123.1 18.8
Adjusted net profit 1,193.7 1,473.1 1,271.0 6.6 1,591.0 1,888.1 2,280.9 21.5
Networth 6,134.2 7,435.5 9,109.7 19.6 10,462.2 12,048.2 13,964.2 15.3
BVPS (Rs) 135.0 163.6 185.6 - 213.0 245.3 284.3 -
EPS (Rs) 26.3 32.4 25.9 - 32.4 38.4 46.4 -
P/BV (x) 8.9 7.3 6.5 - 5.6 4.9 4.2 -
P/E (x) 45.7 37.0 46.3 - 37.0 31.2 25.8 -
RoE (%) 21.0 21.3 14.5 - 15.3 15.5 16.2 -
P/Float 2.1 1.8 1.5 - 1.3 1.2 1.0 -
P/GWP 4.0 3.8 3.2 - 2.6 2.2 1.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

Results Summary (| cr) Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY % Q2FY23 QoQ % Comments
Policyholders Account              
Gross premium written 5599.7 5695.4 4786.1 17.0 5302.6 5.6 Growth driven by motor and health
Net premium written 4163.0 4218.8 3655.1 13.9 3705.9 12.3  
Premium Earned (Net) 3792.1 4017.9 3311.9 14.5 3836.6 -1.2 Business retention remains steady
Income from investments (net) 580.1 566.1 532.2 9.0 635.3 -8.7  
Other income -10.2 10.0 10.0 -201.5 27.2 -137.4  
Total income 4362.0 4594.1 3854.1 13.2 4499.0 -3.0  
Commission 174.4 168.8 202.7 -14.0 128.2 36.0 Commission ratio eases QoQ
Opex relating to insurance business 1244.8 1181.3 1074.9 15.8 1067.3 16.6 Higher opex led by sales promotion expenses
Incurred claims 2666.3 2911.0 2303.5 15.7 2793.3 -4.5 Claim ratio declined QoQ
Total expenses 4085.5 4261.0 3581.1 14.1 3988.8 2.4 Combined ratio at 104.6% in 9MFY23
Underwriting profit/ (loss) -293.5 -243.1 -269.2 9.0 -152.3 92.7  
Operating profit/ (loss) 276.5 333.0 273.1 1.3 510.2 -45.8  
Shareholders Account Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY % Q2FY23 QoQ %  
Income in shareholders account 484.6 514.2 438.1 10.6 715.7 -32.3  
Total Expenses 19.3 20.7 17.1 13.0 106.0 -81.8  
Profit before taxes 465.3 493.4 420.9 10.5 609.7 -23.7  
Provision for taxes 112.7 125.8 103.4 9.0 19.1 489.0  
Profit after tax  352.5 367.6 317.5 11.0 590.5 -40.3 Steady earnings supported by premium growth
Analytical ratios (reported) Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY % Q2FY23 QoQ %  
Solvency ratio 2.45   2.45 0 bps 2.47 -2 bps  
Claim ratio 70.31   69.55 76 bps 72.81 -250 bps  
Expense  ratio 31.20   31.50 -30 bps 27.90 330 bps  
Net retention ratio 74.30   76.40 -210 bps 69.90 440 bps  
Combined ratio 104.40   104.50 -10 bps 105.10 -70 bps  

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Health segment continue to drive overall industry growth. The underwriting performance remains weak with combined ratio of industry at 116%. For motor segment combined ratio stood at 123.5%.
  • Among products Motor OD, growth came in at 4.7% as the competitive intensity continued especially in PV segment. Health segment continue to remain fastest growing segment in the industry and grew 47% for the company. As a result of continued investment in retail health distribution, the company has outpaced industry growth during the quarter.
  • Banca and key relationship grew 39% in which one banca partner distribution saw growth 30.9% and other banca partnerships grew 44.2%.
  • Growth number of retail health agency channel will be sustained (at ~40%) going ahead. Group health is also growing strong compared to industry led by strong banca channels.
  • Retail health indemnity grew ~26% during the quarter, within that agency vertical grew ~40%.
  • Expense ratio likely to be at ~29-30% due to higher investments, however, management indicated that revenues will catch up gradually which will keep opex steady. The tech migration is almost done and synergy benefit can be seen from Q4FY23 onwards.
  • Loss ratio break up: corporate health – 98.9%, retail indemnity – 68%. Overall loss ratio to come down in near term.
  • 3/4th of investment income is from accruals and balance is capital gains.
  • For FY23, combined ratio will be at ~104% levels and FY24 will start seeing a decline.
  • Management guided ROE to be in high teens.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA, and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.   

 

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