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  • CMP : 1,953.2 Chg : 3.40 (0.17%)
  • Target : 1,300.0 (12.75%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

20 Oct 2022

Robust growth; awaiting uptick in combined ratio

About The Stock

ICICI Lombard is among the leading multi-line players in the general insurance space with ~8.4% market share on an overall basis.

  • Motor segment contributes over 35% of total premium
  • General insurer is among the most profitable and consistent in terms of return ratios with RoE of ~16-20% for a sustainable period
Q2FY23

ICICI Lombard posted a healthy performance on business growth.

  • Gross premium growth was healthy at 17.6% YoY to ₹ 5302 crore
  • Claims ratio up QoQ by 73 bps at 72.8%; opex ratio largely steady at ~28%
  • Combined ratio at 105.1% vs. 105.3% YoY; underwriting loss at ₹ 152 crore
  • PAT at ₹ 590 crore, up 32.2% YoY, including tax reversal of ₹ 128 crore
What should Investors do?

Since our initiation in March 2022, the stock has remained flat post some run up. We believe long term growth opportunity, market leadership with diversified product mix are positives, sustainable earnings momentum needs to be watched.

  • We downgrade the stock from BUY to HOLD rating
Target Price and Valuation

We value ICICI Lombard at 2.6x FY24E premium (50% weight), 1.25x FY24E float (50% weight) and revise our target price of ₹ 1300/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Continued leadership and selective acceptance in motor segment (especially in TP) to aid profitability
  • Investment in agency channel has started to churn; awaits sustainability
  • Combined ratio remains high; gradual decline to aid earnings and valuation
  • Investment in digital and distribution to strengthen business growth
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from ICICI Lombard, we like Star Health Insurance.

  • Market leader in the retail health insurance segment with ~31.6% market share, as of June 2022
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 860

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR (FY19 - FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22 - FY24E)
Gross direct premium income 14,488.2 13,312.8 14,003.1 17,976.9 7.5 21,421.1 25,140.5 18.3
Adjusted net profit 1,049.3 1,193.7 1,473.1 1,271.0 6.6 1,509.4 1,764.8 17.8
Networth 5,320.5 6,134.2 7,435.5 9,109.7 19.6 10,392.6 11,875.1 14.2
BVPS (Rs) 117.1 135.0 163.6 185.6 - 211.7 241.9 -
EPS (Rs) 23.1 26.3 32.4 25.9 - 30.7 36.0 -
P/BV (x) 9.8 8.5 7.0 6.2 - 5.4 4.8 -
P/E (x) 49.9 43.9 35.6 44.5 - 37.5 32.1 -
RoE (%) 19.2 21.0 21.3 14.5 - 14.5 14.6 -
P/Float 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.5 - 1.3 1.1 -
P/GWP 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.0 - 2.6 2.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

Results Summary (| cr) Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY % Q1FY23 QoQ % Comments
Policyholders Account              
Gross premium written 5302.6 6311.9 4508.5 17.6 5529.8 -4.1 Growth driven by motor and health
Net premium written 3705.9 4675.5 3052.8 21.4 3623.3 2.3  
Premium Earned (Net) 3836.6 4452.8 3250.3 18.0 3468.2 10.6 Higher proportion of business retained
Income from investments (net) 635.3 616.2 551.8 15.1 490.0 29.6  
Other income 27.2 10.0 6.1 344.8 20.0 35.9  
Total income 4499.0 5079.0 3808.2 18.1 3978.3 13.1  
Commission 128.2 187.0 143.5 -10.7 78.2 64.0 Comission ratio remains in a range
Opex relating to insurance business 1067.3 1309.1 937.5 13.8 1083.4 -1.5  
Incurred claims 2793.3 3226.1 2269.9 23.1 2499.9 11.7 Claim ratio continued to remain steady at 105%
Total expenses 3988.8 4722.2 3351.0 19.0 3661.5 8.9  
Underwriting profit/ (loss) -152.3 -269.4 -100.7 51.2 -193.3 -21.2  
Operating profit/ (loss) 510.2 356.8 457.1 11.6 316.8 61.1  
Shareholders Account Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY % Q1FY23 QoQ %  
Income in shareholders account 715.7 557.3 631.3 13.4 487.9 46.7  
Total Expenses 106.0 38.6 37.4 183.6 22.8 365.2  
Profit before taxes 609.7 518.7 593.9 2.7 465.1 31.1  
Provision for taxes 19.1 132.3 147.2 -87.0 116.1 -83.5  
Profit after tax  590.5 386.5 446.7 32.2 349.0 69.2 PAT impacted by diminution of investment
Analytical ratios (reported) Q2FY23 Q2FY23E Q2FY22 YoY % Q1FY23 QoQ %  
Solvency ratio 2.47   2.5 -2 bps 2.61 -14 bps Sequential decline led by seasonality & higher retail business
Claim ratio 72.81 72.45 69.8 297 bps 72.08 73 bps  
Expense  ratio 27.90 0.00 29.0 -110 bps 27.80 10 bps  
Net retention ratio 69.90   67.7 220 bps 65.50 440 bps Higher retention led by increasing proportion of retail business
Combined ratio 105.10   105.3 -20 bps 104.10 100 bps  

 

Q2FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Industry’s GDPI grew 15.3% for H1FY23 vs. H1FY22. Excluding crop insurance, growth was at 18.0% for the same. The pricing aggression continued in certain segments like motor, while there was some improvement in the group health segment
  • Growth remained tepid at 4.5% in the motor segment. The company is facing challenges like competitive intensity in motor OD. The management focused on growing its market share in certain profitable sub segments
  • In the motor segment, the share increase was largely in CV, which increased from 17.1% to 23.4%. The 2-W was steady at 27.1%. The management was cautious on private car segment
  • Overall new vehicle sales have been strong and demand also continues to be positive. With the improving pricing environment, the company will be able to maintain its leadership position
  • Investments in retail health distribution resulted in growth of 15.8%. Health insurance run rate was at | 400 crore per month
  • ICICI Bank has started to distribute indemnity product with home loans, though modalities of the new product, profitability may be different from earlier scheme. Contribution of ICICI Bank was back to pre-Covid level at ~6.1%
  • Renewals in retail health business at ~75-80%
  • Excluding income tax reversal of | 128 crore, PAT growth was ~3.4% YoY, attributable to | 89 crore diminution in value of investments
  • Crop business will remain +/- 5% of overall portfolio. In H2FY23, crop business will be significantly lower than H1FY23
  • Nearly 70% of investment income is accrual while remaining 30% consists of capital gains
  • Decline in solvency ratio is due to increase in retail business and dividend payment

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA, and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.   

 

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