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  • CMP : 2,265.5 Chg : -10.10 (-0.44%)
  • Target : 2,700.0 (3.85%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

20 Jul 2022

Volumes, margins to recover in H2FY23…

About the stock

Hindustan Unilever (HUL) is the biggest FMCG company in India with more than 40 brands across categories. It is the market leader in fabric wash, personal wash, cosmetics, shampoos and many other categories.

  • The company has a distribution reach of ~8.5 million (mn) outlets with a direct network of more than 3.5 mn
  • HUL acquired GSK Consumer Healthcare’s business in 2019 and integrated Horlicks and Boost brands with the foods & refreshment segment
Q1FY23 Results

HUL’s results were better than estimates with 6% volume growth.

  • Sales were up 19.5% YoY driven largely by pricing growth
  • EBITDA was at Rs 3247 crore, up 14.0% YoY, with margins at 23.2%
  • Consequent PAT was at Rs 2289 crore (up 11.1% YoY)
What should Investors do?

HUL’s share price has gone up by 121% over the past five years (from Rs 1158 in July 2017 to Rs 2568 levels in July 2022).

  • We expect volume growth & margin to recover in H2FY23 given commodity inflation has started cooling off from the peak
  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target price and Valuation

We value HUL at Rs 2700 i.e. 60x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key triggers for future price performance
  • Synergistic benefits of integration of nutrition business (Horlicks & Boost) to drive cost rationalisation
  • Long term premiumisation trend in fabric wash to help sustain margins
  • Palm oil has started cooling down in the last one month but other important commodities still remain at an elevated level. Margins to recover in H2FY23
  • The company is driving more than 20% of its sales through digital channels like e-commerce, Shikhar app (reach of 8 lakh outlets), D2C, etc
Alternate stock idea

Besides HUL, we like TCPL in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampann & Soulful in Indian market expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value the stock at Rs 910 with BUY rating

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E (Blank) 2 Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income 38,785.0 45,996.0 51,193.0 8.2 57,405.5 61,707.1 - 9.8
EBITDA 9,600.0 11,324.0 12,503.0 15.6 13,624.4 14,843.5 - 9.0
EBITDA Margin % 24.8 24.6 24.4 - 23.7 24.1 - -
Net Profit 6,738.0 7,954.5 8,818.0 11.9 9,607.6 10,533.9 - 9.3
EPS (Rs) 31.2 33.9 37.5 10.0 40.9 44.8 - 9.3
P/E 83.2 76.6 69.1 - 63.5 57.9 - -
RoNW % 85.7 17.1 18.1 - 19.7 21.5 - -
RoCE (%) 89.5 18.9 20.2 - 22.5 24.6 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Volumes flat on three-year CAGR but gains in market share

  • Net sales grew 19.5% to Rs 14016 crore led by aggressive price hikes in home care and beauty & personal care (BPC) segment. The company reported 6% volume growth on a low base impacted by second Covid wave but demand conditions still remain below par owing to aggressive price hikes specifically in BPC segment. Impact of grammage reduction has been 2-3%
  • The FMCG market witnessed 5-7% de-growth in volumes in the March and June quarter on a three-year CAGR basis but HUL has seen flat volumes in a similar period. Volume decline in rural regions is more prominent. The company has gained market share in 75% of its business
  • Home care segment witnessed growth of 29.9% with high-single digit volume growth. On a three-year CAGR basis, the segment witnessed growth of robust 12.5%. Premiumisation trend continues in fabric wash with most of the brands gaining market share. The company took a price hike to pass on steep inflation in crude & caustic soda
  • BPC segment saw 17.3% growth during the quarter. The segment also saw aggressive price hikes given palm fatty acids and packaging costs remain high throughout the quarter. On a three-year CAGR basis, the segment saw growth of 5.3%. The soap category has largely been led by pricing growth. Hair care witnessed double digit growth led by premium portfolio
  • Glow & lovely and Talc saw muted growth due to slowdown in discretionary consumption. Thought colour cosmetics saw strong growth on a Covid impacted low base, it still remains below pre-Covid level
  • Food & refreshment category saw 9.3% growth led by strong growth tea, coffee and ice creams. The company had taken a price cut in tea previously due to benign tea procurement prices. Though HUL gained market share in the nutrition segment, the category is still growing at a dismal pace
  • Gross margins continue to remain under pressure with 309 bps contraction given both crude & palm oil prices were sharply up in most of the quarter. Though palm oil prices have cooled off significantly in the last one month, other commodities like caustic soda, crude & polyethylene have still remained at an elevated level
  • Many commodity prices were at elevated levels in June 2022 compared to June 2021. Crude oil was 60% up, caustic soda was up 125%, palm oil was 50% up whereas polyethylene was up 25%. Though the trend in palm oil Is downwards, other commodities need to decline further to bring sustained relief on gross margins. Margins would continue to remain under pressure in Q2 given the company holds 12-14-week raw material inventory. However, it should start improving sequentially from Q3 onwards
  • Price cuts/reversal/grammage restoration in view of commodity decline generally takes place with a lag given channel inventory is required to get cleared before price cuts. Generally, the company takes a price hike in smaller proportions and price cuts in a large proportion
  • The 12% pricing growth in the quarter is lagging behind raw material costs, which is up 20%. The company expects COGS in the September quarter would be higher compared to June quarter
  • The company continues to save costs, which reflected in 100 bps (as percentage of sales) lower employee spends and 145 bps lower (as percentage of sales) overhead spends. Advertisement spend was up 71 bps (as percentage of sales). This resulted in operating profit growth of 14% to Rs 3247. Operating margins contracted 110 bps to 23.2%. Net profit grew 11.1% to Rs 2289 crore led by growth in operating profit, which was partially impacted by higher income tax provisioning (base quarter tax write back)
 
High commodity inflation in most of the quarter resulted in contraction of both gross margins as well as operating margins. Though palm oil prices dipped significantly from the highs in mid-June, most other commodities have still remained at an elevated level. The management has guided at a sequential improvement in margins from the December quarter onwards. Home care segment has witnessed strong growth of 12.5% on a three-year CAGR basis led by strong growth in premium detergent category with market share gains. However, growth in soaps & other personal care categories has remained lacklustre. We believe volume growth will recover in H2FY22 (without any base effect) with price cuts & restoration of grammage in smaller packs. We believe the company would witness healthy volume growth and recovery in operating margins in the second half of FY23. Moreover, the company is expected to be aggressive in terms of innovation (new product launches) during the festive season. We maintain our HOLD rating with a revised target price of Rs 2700/share (earlier: Rs 2200).

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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