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Hindustan Unilever Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,231.6 Chg : 16.80 (0.76%)
  • Target : 2,200.0 (2.61%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

04 May 2022

Price led growth; margin to dip in FY23…

About The Stock

Hindustan Unilever (HUL) is the biggest FMCG company in India with more than 40 brands across categories. It is the market leader in fabric wash, personal wash, cosmetics, shampoos and many other categories.

  • The company has a distribution reach of ~8.5 million (mn) outlets with a direct network of more than 3.5 mn
  • HUL acquired GSK Consumer Healthcare’s business in 2019 and integrated Horlicks and Boost brands with the foods & refreshment segment
Q4FY22 Results - HUL reported better than expected numbers
  • Sales were up 10.4% YoY driven entirely by prices
  • EBITDA was at Rs 3245 crore, up 9.7% YoY, with margins at 24.1%
  • Consequent PAT was at Rs 2327 crore (up 8.6% YoY)
What should Investors do?

HUL’s share price has gone up by ~2.3x over the past five years (from Rs 935 in April 2017 to Rs 2144 levels in April 2022).

  • We expect margins to contract in FY23E on account of incessant inflation in crude, palm oil & other important commodities
  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value HUL at Rs 2200 i.e. 55x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Synergistic benefits of integration of nutrition business (Horlicks & Boost) to drive cost rationalisation
  • Long term premiumisation trend in fabric wash to help sustain margins
  • Steep commodity inflation to continue driving pricing growth but keep margins under check in near term
  • The company is driving more than 20% of its sales through digital channels like e-commerce, Shikhar app (reach of 8 lakh outlets), D2C etc
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides HUL, we like TCPL in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampaan & Soulful in Indian market expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value the stock at Rs 910 with BUY rating

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR (FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E (black) 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Total Operating Income 38,785.0 45,996.0 51,193.0 8.2 56,225.9 60,444.9 - 8.7
EBITDA 9,600.0 11,324.0 12,503.0 15.6 13,448.9 14,714.5 - 8.5
EBITDA Margin (%) 24.8 24.6 24.4 - 23.9 24.3 - -
Net Profit 6,738.0 7,954.5 8,818.0 11.9 9,280.8 10,254.1 - 7.8
EPS (Rs) 31.2 33.9 37.5 10.0 39.5 43.7 - 7.8
P/E 68.7 63.3 57.1 - 54.3 49.1 - -
RoNW % 85.7 17.1 18.1 - 19.1 21.2 - -
RoCE % 89.5 18.9 20.2 - 21.9 24.2 - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Volumes flat; cut in ad-spends & other costs protect margins

  • Net sales grew 10.4% to Rs 13190 crore led by aggressive price hikes in home care segment. The company reported flat volumes in Q4 and 3% volume growth in FY22
  • Home care segment revenues witnessed strong growth of 24% in Q4 and 19% in FY22 driven by price hikes to pass on steep inflation in crude based raw material
  • The fabric wash category saw high double-digit growth driven by growth across the portfolio with mid-single digit volume growth. The household care category grew in high double-digit. Dishwash and surface cleaners both performed well
  • Beauty & personal care segment grew 4% in Q4 and 8% in FY22. The company has not passed on palm oil inflation entirely mainly to sustain market share. Skin cleansing saw double-digit growth driven by pricing. Skin Care premium portfolio growth came in double-digit whereas Glow & Lovely, Talc & colour cosmetics were impacted by slower growth in discretionary category. Oral care also saw soft sales
  • Lakme’s 30% sales is contributed by online channels. HUL will focus on growing through influencer marketing for beauty products. It will also reach out directly to consumers through its B2C platforms
  • Foods & refreshment segment grew 5% in Q4 and 7% in FY22. Under the beverages category, tea continues strong performance and coffee witnessed double-digit growth. Rise in market share and penetration gains continue for health food drinks. Double-digit growth for foods was led by ketchup, jams and soups. Ice cream also saw double-digit growth with new launches planned ahead of the season
  • In FY22, 16 brands crossed Rs 1,000 crore sales. Surf-Excel & Brooke Bond became Rs 5000 crore brand whereas Wheel, Horlicks, Lifebuoy, Glow & Lovely, Vim, Rin & Dove clocked more than 2,000 crore sales. Ponds, ClinicPlus, Lux, Lakme, Kissan, Bru & Kwality Walls touched 1,000 crore sales
  • The company is continuously increasing its direct & indirect distribution reach. Its effective coverage & store level assortments have been 1.15x of pre-Covid levels
  • Some key raw material related commodities like crude & palm oil are up 60% in last one year & plastics & soda ash are up 20% & 30%, respectively in similar period. Net material inflation for the company is 4.5x in March-22 quarter compared to June-20 quarter
  • HUL has stepped up prices to the tune of 7% in FY22 and incurred gross saving of 7%. Its premium product portfolio has grown by 2x compared to rest of the portfolio
  • The company is taking measures to riposte high commodity inflation through efficient buying. Moreover, it is also taking calibrated pricing action through bridge packs in all commodity impacted categories. It is also driving premiumisation in select geographies
  • The integration of acquired Nutrition portfolio (Horlicks & Brand) has been completed. The distribution reach of these brands doubled after acquisition
  • Ban on palm oil exports from Indonesia is temporary hurdle for supplies & it would get resolved soon. However, palm oil prices are expected to remain firm
  • Rising prices of crude and edible oils continues to be a challenge and will affect margins in the short term. Inflation is expected to impact sales volumes and growth is expected to be price-led in near future. The company will work towards reducing distribution and packing costs to improve margins
  • The board has recommended a final dividend of Rs 19/share for FY22. Together with the interim dividend of Rs 15/share declared, the total dividend for FY22 amounts to Rs 34/ share
  • FMCG market volumes are on a declining trend (5-7% de-growth). Demand slowdown is more prominent in rural regions (8-10% de-growth) & discretionary categories

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I/We, Sanjay Manyal MBA (FINANCE) Research Analyst, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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