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Hindustan Unilever Ltd>
  • CMP : 2,359.7 Chg : 103.45 (4.59%)
  • Target : 2,800.0 (12.77%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

22 Nov 2022

Premiumisation, category development key to growth

About The Stock

Hindustan Unilever (HUL) is the biggest FMCG company in India with more than 50 brands across categories. It is the market leader in fabric wash, personal wash, cosmetics, shampoos and many other categories.

  • Presence in 15 categories with more than 50 brands, out of which 16 clock sales of more than            ₹ 1000 crore
  • The company has a distribution reach of ~9.0 million (mn) outlets out of total 11 mn with a direct network of more than 3.5 mn
Analyst Meet takeaways

We attended HUL’s analyst meet to get a sense of backroom work behind mammoth scale of marketing, distribution & manufacturing.

  • Market leadership in more than 85% of its business; i.e. market leader in eight categories and No. 2 in four categories
  • Established 19 new brands in the last 10 years; market development categories contributing ₹ 10,000 crore (20%) to total sales
  • Driving premiumisation; contribution up to 33% from 22% in a decade
What should Investors do?

HUL’s share price has gone up by 96% over the past five years (from ₹ 1265 in November 2017 to ₹ 2481 levels in November 2022).

  • We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value HUL at ₹ 2800 i.e. 60x P/E on FY24E EPS

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Home care categories have grown through premiumisation in the last decade with premium laundry contributing 52% of volumes in 2021 vs. 31% in 2010. The segment has seen market share gains of 500 bps
  • Digital demand capture is 25% of total sales with e-commerce contributing 7-8% of sales. The biggest lever in digital demand capture is eB2B app ‘Shikhar’ utilised by 1 million           stores
  • In the last one year, HUL has taken a 12% price hike to counter 22% material inflation. It has been able to drive savings to the tune of 7% through cost rationalisation measure. HUL is looking to recoup lost gross margins
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides HUL, we like TCPL in our FMCG coverage.

  • Strong innovation & premiumisation strategy in salt, tea, Sampann & Soulful in the Indian market expected to drive sales & margins
  • We value the stock at ₹ 950 with BUY rating

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5Year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2Year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Total Operating Income 38,734.0 38,785.0 45,996.0 51,193.0 8.2 58,753.6 63,771.4 11.6
EBITDA 9,147.0 9,600.0 11,324.0 12,503.0 15.6 13,901.8 15,378.5 10.9
EBITDA Margin % 23.6 25.1 25.0 24.8 - 24.1 24.5 -
Net Profit 6,546.0 6,738.0 7,954.5 8,818.0 11.9 9,972.5 10,934.1 11.4
EPS (|) 30.3 31.2 33.9 37.5 10.0 42.4 46.5 11.4
P/E 81.9 79.6 73.3 66.2 - 58.5 53.4 -
RoNW % 87.6 85.7 17.1 18.1 - 20.3 22.0 -
RoCE (%) 90.7 89.5 18.9 20.2 - 22.8 25.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Analyst meet key takeaways

Analyst Meet: Market development categories contributing 20% of sales

  • HUL has grown revenues at 9% CAGR with 5% volume CAGR in the last decade. It has seen 1000 bps operating margin improvement driven by premiumisation trend largely in fabric care and market development of margin accretive categories with large growth potential
  • The company has introduced and established 19 new brands (including brand extensions & acquisitions) across brands in the last 10 years present. These include five digital first brands (‘Simple’, ‘Baby-Dove’, ‘Love Beauty And Planet’, ‘ACNESQUAD’ & ‘Find Your Happy Place’)
  • Market development of many categories such as      liquid fabric wash, matic detergent, hand & body wash, green tea, spice tea, spread & dressings, premium skin care, premium hair care and premium colour cosmetics, are now contributing | 10,000 crore to sales
  • Overall premium products are contributing 33% to sales in FY22 vs. 22% in FY12. Moreover, digital demand capture is close to 25% vs. nil a decade ago
  • In beauty & personal care (BPC) segment, the company has seven | 1000 crore turnover brands. i.e. ‘Glow & Lovely’, ‘Lifebuoy’, ‘Dove’, ‘Ponds’, ‘Lux’, ‘Clinic-Plus’ and ‘Lakme’
  • The company has adopted the strategy of Winning in Many India (WIMI), leveraging digital capabilities and innovations (new product & category launches) to grow ahead of market
  • HUL is driving premiumisation in skin cleansing through accelerating liquid format adoption in hand & body wash. Moreover, continuing focus on shift from core (Lux, Lifebuoy) to premium (Dove) in bars
  • Hair care (largely shampoos) category market share is highest in two decades. The company has gained 400 bps market share in the last three years. HUL is 3x its largest competitors in the category
  • The company is developing market in skin cleansing, body lotions & hair conditions given penetration levels are merely 22%, 14% & 7%, respectively, with the opportunity of growing penetration to 2x in future
  • The company is focusing on some nascent categories like light moisturisers, BB/CC creams, Sunscreen, body wash & intimate hygiene in the next decade. The penetration levels in these categories are in low single digit
  • Home care category sales & profits have grown 2.6x & 7.3x in the last decade with 500 bps market share gains. The company saw 1000 bps improvement in segment margin in the last six years largely through premiumisation
  • In home care, HUL’s volume contribution from premium laundry has done up from 31% in 2010 to 52%               in 2021 whereas mass laundry volume contribution has come down from 58% in 2010 to 33% in 2021. Dish wash volume has gone up from 11% to15% in a similar period
  • Pricing index in fabric wash is ranging from 0.8x to 2x. Surf Excel is poised to become a US$1 bn brand. Fabric wash liquid (Surf excel & Rin) business is more than | 2000 crore
  • In the fabric wash category, 68% of overall market volume constitutes the mass segment whereas mid-price & premium category constitutes 18% & 14%, respectively. HUL’s market share in the premium segment (Surf-Excel) is 3.5x of mass segment (Wheel) & 1.7x of mid-priced category (Rin)
  • Foods & refreshment category growth has been at 8.5% CAGR in the last nine years whereas segment margin has improved from 720 bps in the similar period.   It has seen market share gains of 450 bps in Brook Bond Tea, 350 bps in Kissan ketchup, 100 bps in Kwality Walls in the last six years. Horlicks & Boost brand have seen market share gains of 150 bps in the last one year
  • The growth strategy in F&R remains similar to other categories. It is focusing on market development of new categories spreads (Mayonnaise, Peanut butter, Gummies, Green Tea and Coffee)
  • In the last six years, HUL has gained significant market share in the tea segment becoming No. 1 in the segment in value market share. The company is driving growth in ‘Taaza’ brand by converting loose consumption to branded. Loose tea constitutes 30% of the total tea market
  • In foods, Kissan & Knorr brands have been extended to adjacencies like peanut butter, Schezwan Sauce, Pizza & Pasta Sauce. The company has been holding more than 10% market share in modern trade in mayonnaise and more than 15% market share in Peanut butter in South India
  • HFD category has seen 200 bps volume market share gain since acquisition. HUL is driving penetration with 200 bps increase to 21.8% since acquisition. Direct coverage has increased by 3x, with e-commerce run rate up 11x and numeric distribution has increased to 1.3x. However, HFD category growth was adversely impacted by high inflation in the last three quarters. The company is driving penetration through | 5 & |10 price point smaller packs
  • HUL has terminated OTC product distribution contract of GSK brands (Crocin, ENO, Iodex, Otrivin & Sensodyne) from November 8, 2023 (1.5 years ahead of contract duration). The company generates | 300 crore of gross income from these products along with some distribution expense. This would adversely impact earnings in FY24
  • Commodity inflation in the last one year was unprecedented and many of these RMs are still closer to 10 years high. Palm oil & tea prices have softened from the peak. However, crude, soda ash, barley, milk & other key raw material prices remain at elevated levels
  • HUL has been using Jarvis model to understand impact on volumes with price hikes and the company has been able to optimise price-volume equation with this data driven model
  • The company is looking to build back gross margin, which is 600 bps below Septmeber-2021 level by bridging the price cost gap. It would scale up advertisement for core category growth, market development

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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