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Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd>
  • CMP : 491.1 Chg : -0.10 (-0.02%)
  • Target : 255.0 (10.87%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

30 May 2022

GRMs drive earnings; marketing trend to be key…

About The Stock

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) is one of India’s largest public sector refining & marketing companies.

  • The company operates more than 19000 retail outlets
  • Petrol & diesel together historically contributed more than 60% of total sales
Q4FY22

HPCL’s results were better than estimates on the profitability front due to higher other income.

  • Revenue was up 1.8% QoQ to ₹ 105288.5 crore (estimate: ₹ 131206.2 crore). Product sales grew 3.1% QoQ to 10.3 MMT
  • Reported GRMs were at US$12.4/bbl while throughput was up 10.6% QoQ to 4.7 MMT. EBITDA was at ₹ 2098.6 crore, up 12.2% QoQ (estimate:₹ 2257.9 crore)
  • Other income was ₹ 1597.9 crore. Subsequently, PAT was at ₹ 1795.3 crore, up 106.6% QoQ (estimate: ₹ 1182.6 crore)
What should Investors do?

HPCL’s refining performance has improved QoQ and is likely to remain healthy in the near term. However, the company has not passed on higher crude oil costs to customers while weaker marketing profitability is likely to impact earnings in the near term.

  • We retain our HOLD rating on the stock
Target Price Valuation

We value HPCL at ₹ 255 i.e. average of P/BV multiple: ₹ 249/share and P/E multiple: ₹ 260/share

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Crude throughput to improve with increased capacity getting commissioned
  • Product cracks sustaining at higher level
  • Passing on higher crude oil costs to customers
  • Consistent dividend payout
New Stock Ideas

Apart from HPCL, in our oil & gas coverage we also like RIL.

  • Reliance Industries (RIL) is a diversified business entity with a presence in energy, retail, digital services and media segments. Consumer business will be a growth driver for RIL while stable cash flow is expected from refining segment that will enable expansion in new energy verticals
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3050

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22E-FY24E)
Revenues (| crore) 296,928.4 287,407.3 270,326.3 373,896.7 11.8 450,490.2 418,002.0 5.7
EBITDA (| crore) 11,442.0 5,123.2 15,925.4 10,175.9 -0.8 5,894.5 13,075.5 13.4
Net Profit (| crore) 6,028.7 2,637.3 10,663.9 6,382.6 0.6 1,493.3 6,077.1 -2.4
EPS (|) 39.5 17.3 70.6 44.9 - 10.5 42.8 -
P/E (x) 5.8 13.3 3.3 5.1 - 21.8 5.4 -
Price / Book (x) 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.8 - 0.9 0.8 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.4 15.2 4.8 7.8 - 15.0 7.1 -
RoCE (%) 15.2 2.5 15.6 7.3 - 1.3 7.3 -
RoE (%) 21.4 9.1 29.5 16.5 - 4.0 14.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Q4FY22 Results: Higher GRMs and other income drives earnings

  • HPCL’s results were ahead of estimates on the earnings front as the company reported higher-than-expected other income
  • Reported GRMs at US$12.4/bbl were lower than expectations. With a rise in product cracks, we estimate GRMs at US$13.5/bbl, US$8/bbl in FY23E, FY24E, respectively
  • On account of increase in refining capacity, we estimate crude throughput of 21.4 MMT and 23 MMT for FY23E and FY24E, respectively
  • We estimate marketing sales at 42 MMT and 43.9 MMT in FY23E and FY24E, respectively
 
Variance Analysis
  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Total Revenues 1,05,288.5 1,31,206.2 85,203.6 23.6 1,03,422.4 1.8    
Raw materials costs 90,141.3 1,18,534.0 65,167.4 38.3 90,627.1 -0.5    
Employees Cost 741.6 609.3 435.2 70.4 622.1 19.2    
Other Expenses 12,307.0 9,805.0 14,934.6 -17.6 10,302.5 19.5    
Total Expenditure 1,03,189.9 1,28,948.2 80,537.2 28.1 1,01,551.7 1.6    
EBITDA 2,098.6 2,257.9 4,666.4 -55.0 1,870.7 12.2   Slightly lower-than-expected due to lower-than-expected GRMs 
EBITDA margins (%) 2.0 1.7 5.5 -348 bps 1.8 18 bps    
Depreciation 1,083.2 1,004.4 937.2 15.6 1,024.7 5.7    
EBIT 1,015.4 1,253.5 3,729.2 -72.8 846.0 20.0    
Interest 328.3 322.9 205.3 59.9 235.8 39.2    
Other Income 1,597.9 650.4 544.6 193.4 550.4 190.3    
Extra Ordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA    
PBT 2,285.0 1,581.0 4,068.5 -43.8 1,160.7 96.9    
Total Tax 489.7 398.4 1,050.6 -53.4 291.8 67.8    
PAT 1,795.3 1,182.6 3,018.0 -40.5 868.9 106.6    
                 
Key Metrics                
Exchange rate (₹/$) 75.2 75.2 72.9 3.2 75.0 0.4    
Throughput (mmt) 4.7 4.8 4.4 6.8 4.2 10.6   In line with estimates
Sales (mmt) 10.3 10.3 9.8 4.4 10.0 3.1    
GRM ($/barrel) 12.4 20.0 8.1 53.4 6.4 94.7   Reported GRMs below estimates

Terms & conditions and other disclosures

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