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  • CMP : 4,228.4 Chg : -33.0 (-0.77%)
  • Target : 3,300.0 (36.08%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

10 Feb 2023

Growth visibility remains strong…

About The Stock

Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), the largest defence PSU in India, is engaged in design, development, manufacture, repair, overhaul, upgrade and servicing of a wide range of products including, aircraft, helicopters, aero-engines, avionics, accessories and aerospace structures.

The company has delivered revenue, EBITDA and PAT CAGR of 7.4%, 12% and 26.5%, respectively, in FY18-22. In FY22, repair & overhaul contributed ~64% to total revenues while manufacturing contributed~30%

Q3FY23

EBITDA margins contracted on higher provisions

  • Revenue declined 3.8% YoY to ₹ 5665.5 crore on higher base. Sequentially, revenue increased 10.1%
  • The EBITDA margin contracted 682 bps YoY to 17.4% on higher provisions; leading to EBITDA de-growth of 30.9% YoY to ₹ 985.4 crore
  • PAT rose 23.8% YoY to ₹ 1155.2 crore (due to tax refunds of ₹ 427.4 crore)
What should Investors do?

We expect HAL to deliver revenue and EBITDA CAGR of 10.3% and 14.8%, respectively, over FY22-25E. PAT is likely to grow at 11.9% CAGR (FY21-25E). Increase in profitability with strong asset turnover is expected to result in healthy return ratios over FY23-25E.

  • We continue to remain positive and retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value HAL at ₹ 3300 i.e. 20x PE on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Healthy order book position (₹ 84000 crore; 3.2x TTM revenues) led by large scale orders in manufacturing aircraft/helicopters (LCA, LCH, ALH)
  • Continuous order inflows in maintenance, repair & overhaul (MRO) with strong order pipeline in manufacturing for the next three to four years (led by LUH, LCH, ALH, Dornier, HTT-40 and engines for Su-30 & MiG-29)
  • LCA Tejas MK1A, largest order in manufacturing, deliveries to IAF expected from FY24E end. Moreover, execution of other key orders and sustained growth in MRO to drive revenue growth in double digits from FY25E
Bharat Dynamics

We also like Bharat Dynamics (BDL) in the defence space.

  • Strong earnings growth of ~25% CAGR expected over FY22-24E led by execution of existing strong order book primarily comprising manufacturing various types of indigenous missiles & torpedoes

BUY with a target price of ₹ 1010/share

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR (FY19-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Revenues 21,438.2 22,882.3 24,620.0 5.3 26,158.0 28,355.4 33,034.4 10.3
EBITDA 4,896.1 5,336.3 5,408.6 4.5 6,405.6 6,983.3 8,173.3 14.8
EBITDA margin (%) 22.8 23.3 22.0 - 24.5 24.6 24.7 -
Profit Before Tax 3,969.0 4,283.5 5,224.5 8.8 6,389.3 6,349.2 7,319.2 11.9
EPS (|) 85.9 97.1 151.9 - 150.9 143.9 165.3 -
P/E (x) 29.1 25.0 16.0 - 16.1 16.8 14.7 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 17.7 13.9 12.3 - 10.4 9.4 8.0 -
RoCE (%) 21.9 29.4 27.4 - 32.2 29.1 30.1 -
RoE (%) 21.0 21.0 26.3 - 25.4 22.1 22.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Analysis

  Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
Operating Income 5,665.5 6,032.1 5,891.9 -3.8 5,144.8 10.1 Revenue declined YoY on higher base and muted growth in manufacturing contracts
Other income 497.2 160.0 196.8 152.7 259.1 91.9  
Total Revenue 6,162.7 6,192.1 6,088.7 1.2 5,403.9 14.0  
Raw materials costs 2,489.7 2,955.7 2,972.1 -16.2 1,841.0 35.2  
Employees Expenses 1,132.8 1,144.7 1,069.3 5.9 1,144.7 -1.0  
Other Expenses 1,057.6 466.3 423.9 149.5 537 96.8  
Total Expenditure 4,680.1 4,566.7 4,465.3 4.8 3,523 32.8  
EBITDA 985.4 1,465.4 1,426.6 -30.9 1,621.6 -39.2  
EBITDA margins (%) 17.4 24.3 24.2 -682 bps 31.5 -1413 bps Higher provision expenses impacted EBITDA margin
Interest 2.1 0.4 0.8   0.4    
Depreciation 268.9 375.0 373.5 -28.0 252.0 6.7  
Tax 57.8 312.5 313.8 -81.6 409.4 -85.9  
PAT 1,155.2 937.5 933.4 23.8 1,221.2 -5.4  
  • Revenue for the quarter came in at | 5665.5 crore (down 3.8% YoY); lower than our estimate of | 6032.1 crore. The de-growth during the quarter was likely on account of muted execution in manufacturing contracts (which account for 75% of the total order book) as a large part of this order book is yet to see meaningful execution. Sequentially, revenue increased 42%. For 9MFY23, revenue was up 10.5% YoY, mainly on account of substantial growth seen during Q1FY23

 

  • Gross margin was at 56.1% (vs. our estimate of 51%); improved from 49.6% in Q3FY22. This was mainly on account of lower raw material cost, which declined 16.2% YoY

 

  • EBITDA margins came in at 17.4% (vs. estimate of 24.3%); down 682 bps YoY despite an improvement in gross margins. This was mainly on account of a significant increase in others cost (up 149.5% YoY). The provisions amount in others cost was at | 808.5 crore, up 129% YoY. The 9MFY23 EBITDA margin was at 23.8% against 22.3% for 9MFY22

 

  • EBITDA declined 30.9% YoY (down 39.2% QoQ) to | 985.4 crore (I-direct estimate of | 1465.4 crore). The 9MFY23 EBITDA was up 18% YoY at
    | 3433.4 crore

 

  • Reported PAT of | 1155.2 crore was up 23.8% YoY. However, it includes a refund of | 427.4 crore related to favourable orders in income tax (it includes | 176.9 crore in other income and | 250.5 crore of tax refunds). Adjusting for this refund, net profit for the quarter was at | 727.7 crore

 

  • Order backlog was at | 84000 crore (3.2x TTM revenues). Implied order inflows during 9MFY23 were at | 16278 crore

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