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Hikal Ltd>
  • CMP : 312.6 Chg : 3.90 (1.26%)
  • Target : 340.0 (16.04%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

06 Jun 2022

Headwinds to persist; recovery likely from H2FY23…

About The Stock

Hikal is predominantly a B2B player that provides intermediates and active ingredients to global pharmaceutical, animal health, crop protection and specialty chemical companies.

  • Pharma and crop protection are 58% and 42% of operating revenues, respectively. The pharma business is currently divided in 50:50 ratio of APIs and CDMO. Animal health business accounts for 20-25% of CDMO business
  • In crop protection, 69% revenues are derived from CDMO while remaining is from proprietary products, specialty chemicals & specialty biocides
  • One of the largest suppliers of Gabapentin API (CNS) and in crop protection, one of the largest suppliers of Thiabendazole (TBZ)
Q4FY22

Muted quarter amid headwinds in pharma and crop protection.

  • Revenues declined 6% YoY to ₹ 502.4 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 61 crore, down 44% YoY with margins at 12.1%
  • Consequent PAT was at ₹ 21 crore (down 59% YoY)
What should Investors do?

Hikal’s share price grew ~1.8x over past three years.

  • We maintain BUY despite near term headwinds as we continue to believe in the company’s execution prowess, visibility capex and the management’s expectation of gradual business normalisation in both segments. Recent steep correction continues to offer decent risk-reward proposition. That said we continue to monitor developments on recent critical issues- 1) Surat (Gujrat) GIDC incident and 2) MPCB notice for Taloja
Target Price Valuation

Valued at ₹ 340 i.e. 18x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 19.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Capex progress in both pharma and crop protection
  • Margin improvement on the back of several cost rationalisation & efficiency improvement measures undertaken during the pandemic
  • Continuum in crop protection growth rate
  • Received manufacturing license for the production of APIs at Panoli site, to resume post validations over the next quarters
  • Raw material challenges expected to continue in the next few months
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Hikal, in our healthcare coverage we like Laurus.

  • Laurus Labs operates in the segment of generic APIs & FDFs (formulations), custom synthesis and biotechnology
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 690

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 1,589.6 1,507.3 1,720.4 1,942.7 13.9 2,133.9 2,433.6 11.9
EBITDA 298.1 273.2 322.9 340.6 11.9 329.5 462.7 16.6
EBITDA Margins (%) 18.8 18.1 18.8 17.5 - 15.4 19.0 -
Adjusted PAT 103.1 99.8 133.2 160.5 18.8 136.5 234.0 20.7
EPS (|) 8.4 8.1 10.8 13.0 - 11.1 19.0 -
PE (x) 35.0 36.2 27.1 22.5 - 26.5 15.4 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 14.2 15.3 13.0 12.4 - 13.0 8.8 -
Price to book (x) 4.8 4.4 3.9 3.4 - 3.0 2.6 -
RoE (%) 13.6 12.2 14.3 15.0 - 11.5 16.8 -
RoCE (%) 14.3 12.8 15.1 13.6 - 10.9 16.3 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Muted quarter amid slow demand and input challenges

  • Revenues de-grew 6% YoY to | 502 crore with crop protection declining 17% YoY to | 194 crore. Pharma grew 3% YoY to | 308 crore. EBITDA margins declined 838 bps YoY to 12% amid 272 bps YoY decline in gross margins and higher employee expenditure. EBITDA de-grew 44% YoY to
    | 61 crore while profit for the quarter declined 59% YoY to | 21 crore
  • Quarterly revenues were almost in line with I-direct estimates except for segment traction wherein pharma being affected by softening demand for APIs and supply chain disruptions while crop protection was affected due to raw material availability for some key raw materials. Significant increase in input cost has affected margins that are likely to recover gradually from H1FY23. Hikal continues to expand in both pharma, crop protection segments with separate focus and a calibrated approach. However, with strong headwinds due to the inflationary pressures and a sharp rise in input costs of raw material, energy and solvents, growth is likely to taper and margins contract in FY23. We also keep tabs on compliance issues related to Hikal’s Taloja facility

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • In the pharma segment, API industry witnessed softening demand and disruptions in global supply chains. Challenging raw material disruptions and significant increase in input costs have led to pressure on Hikal’s margins. The management expects these challenges to continue through H1FY23. On the CDMO side, Hikal received ~20% increase in inquiries from global innovator companies. On API side, anti-diabetic witnessed good traction and the company indicated at four to five product launches in FY23
  • Capital expenditure to build a production facility at Panoli, Gujarat was initiated as part of 10-year multi-product animal health contract. Significant traction in inquiries for emerging animal health business from several global innovator companies. The management expects plant completion by FY23 and realises revenues from FY24
  • In crop protection, Hikal faced raw material availability challenges for some key products. The company is developing alternate domestic suppliers to mitigate future supply chain disruptions. On CDMO front, Hikal is receiving new inquiries and is working on a portfolio of new products for global innovator companies. Ongoing capex at Panoli, Gujarat is expected to be commissioned during H2FY23
  • The management has guided the business will bottom out in Q1FY23 and then subsequently pick up from H2FY23. The company indicated at normal margins in FY24 and is targeting ~ | 3000 crore revenues by FY25.
Variance Analysis

| crore Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 502.4 478.8 532.5 -5.7 514.5 -2.4   YoY decline due to global slowdown in generics business and production delays due to unavailability of key raw materials 
Raw Material Expenses 277.6 243.6 279.7 -0.8 261.8 6.0    
Gross Margins (%) 44.7 49.1 47.5 -272 bps 49.1 -437 bps    
Employee Expenses 53.6 50.3 42.3 26.8 53.1 1.0    
Other Expenditure 110.2 98.1 101.2 8.9 106.7 3.2    
Operating Profit (EBITDA) 61.0 86.8 109.3 -44.2 92.9 -34.4    
EBITDA (%) 12.1 18.1 20.5 -838 bps 18.1 -592 bps   YoY decline due to increase in input costs of raw materials, energy and solvents as well as lag in pass through of costs to customers
Interest  8.1 7.2 10.0 -19.0 7.2 12.5    
Depreciation 24.2 24.7 21.6 12.4 24.7 -1.8    
Other Income 0.3 0.5 2.9 -90.6 0.6 -52.6    
PBT 29.0 55.4 80.6 -64.1 61.6 -53.0    
Exceptional Items 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA    
Tax  8.2 14.8 29.7 -72.2 16.4 -49.8    
 Tax Rate (%)  28.5 26.6 36.8 -22.7 26.6 6.8    
Reported PAT 20.7 40.7 50.9 -59.3 45.2 -54.2    
Adjusted PAT 20.7 40.7 50.9 -59.3 45.2 -54.2    
EPS (|) 1.7 3.3 4.1 -59.3 3.7 -54.2    
Key Metrics                
Pharma 307.9 276.8 297.7 3.4 268.2 14.8   YoY muted due to due to lower offtake by customers
Crop Protection 194.4 194.5 234.8 -17.2 246.4 -21.1   YoY decline amid supply chain disruptions in the global market

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