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  • CMP : 1,599.8 Chg : 12.40 (0.78%)
  • Target : 2,445.0 (7.38%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

24 May 2022

Poor offtake in Poultry; Focus on Animal business…

About The Stock

Hester is one of India’s leading animal healthcare companies & the second largest poultry vaccine manufacturer in the country. It has a strategic presence in 30+ countries with key markets being India, Nepal and Tanzania.

  • It operates through four broad verticals: poultry vaccines, poultry health products, animal vaccines and animal health products
  • Revenue segment wise: poultry healthcare:73%, animal healthcare: 27%
Q4FY22

Numbers were impacted as poultry farm economics turned adverse due to rise in feed costs and decline in end-product prices

  • Sales were down 12% YoY to ₹ 56.5 crore
    • EBITDA was at ₹ 10.3 crore, down 48% YoY with margins at 18.3%. Margins declined amid higher spends on market expansion in the animal health

Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 7.7 crore (down 41% YoY). [Base of Q4FY21 had ₹ 6.8 crore of license fee income]

What should Investors do?

Hester’s share price has grown by ~2.7x over the past five years (from ~₹ 832.25 in May 2017 to ~₹ 2257 levels in May 2022).

  • We retain HOLD on the stock as we wait for pick-up in demand scenario for new launches and Africa business.
Target Price Valuation

We value Hester at ₹ 2445 (base business at ₹ 2402 i.e. 38x FY24E EPS of ₹ 63.2 + NPV of ₹ 44.3 for Covaxin DS opportunity).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Opportunities in animal vaccines such as classical swine fever, lumpy skin disease (only player), sheep pox (only player) in the domestic space and expected launch of the modified Inactivated Coryza Vaccine, along with additional revenue from PPR national tender
  • Increased focus on health products & widening of portfolio with differentiated herbal line of products looks promising for growth prospects
  • Traction from manufacturing from Tanzania facility, Hester Africa and strengthened distribution network in Africa, along with increase in bulk antigen capacity (Q1FY23) and fill finish line (Q3FY23) for animal vaccines
  • Foray into pet care with 3 products and 6 more launches scheduled in FY23
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from Hester, in our healthcare coverage we like Indoco.

  • Indoco manufactures and markets branded formulations and APIs for the domestic and export markets.

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 510

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 178.1 183.3 214.3 235.0 13.8 268.2 302.6 13.5
EBITDA 68.1 55.4 68.7 60.0 8.0 63.4 88.2 21.3
EBITDA margins(%) 38.2 30.2 32.0 25.5 - 23.6 29.2 -
Adjusted Net Profit 41.6 29.2 37.8 38.9 10.7 35.1 53.8 17.6
EPS (|) 48.9 34.3 44.4 45.7 - 41.3 63.2 -
PE (x) 51.2 73.0 61.9 49.8 - 55.1 36.0 -
Target PE (x) 56.9 81.1 62.6 53.5 - 59.2 38.7 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 32.0 40.3 32.2 35.6 - 33.3 23.5 -
RoNW (%) 23.4 14.5 16.5 15.0 - 12.2 16.3 -
RoCE (%) 22.5 14.0 16.2 10.9 - 9.9 13.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Below-par numbers, new products to trigger growth

  • Revenue witnessed a 14% decline YoY to | 56 crore on back of 25% YoY de-growth in poultry business to | 40 crore being partly offset by 46% YoY growth in animal business to | 17 crore. EBITDA margins declined 1253 bps YoY to 18%, mainly due to higher other expenditure amid higher spend on market expansion in animal health. EBITDA declined 48% YoY to | 10 crore. Subsequently, PAT was down 41% YoY to | 8 crore [note: base of Q4FY21 had | 6.8 crore of license fee income]
  • Hester’s poultry business benefitted from a major disease outbreak in Q4FY21 while this quarter poultry farm economics also turned adverse due to rise in feed costs and decline in end-product prices. Animal business benefited from new product launches and geographical expansions. Going ahead, Hetesr is expected to benefit from FAO tenders for PPR vaccines, improvement in demand environment in Africa and opportunities panning out from animal vaccines such as classical swine fever, lumpy skin disease (only player) and sheep pox (only player). Progress was made in pet division with 3 launches scheduled in May. As the company strengthens its hold in the overall animal healthcare space, consistent order flow and pricing power is likely to improve.

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The sales of vaccines declined by 20% in Q4FY22, but grew by 5% in the year FY22. Sales in Q4FY21 was benefitted by a major disease outbreak in the poultry industry which led to a one-time spurt in demand for poultry vaccines. The current year did not experience any such disease outbreak. Further, during the current year, the poultry farm economics also turned adverse due to rise in feed costs and decline in end-product prices
  • On an annual basis, gross profit margins on product sales have been marginally impacted due to increase in proportion of sales of Health Products which have lower gross margin, coupled with an increase in raw material prices. This in-turn was not fully passed on to customers due to prevailing poor farm economics in the poultry industry.
  • Hester Nepal has seen a growth of 193% in FY22 sales and a net profit of | 2.3 crore in FY22 as against a loss of | 0.9 crore in FY21. Management expect to achieve further increase in sales during the coming year upon the commencement of supplies under the FAO tenders for the PPR vaccine. Nepal’s domestic market is also building up for our live and inactivated vaccines.
  • Hester Africa has received the regulatory approvals for the manufacturing of PPR and CBPP vaccines. The production of these vaccines has commenced and are meeting the quality parameters. The impact of its sales will be seen in FY23. This project will enable Hester to become a leading player in Africa and contribute significantly towards the social as well as economic growth of the African continent, besides adding to the top-line and bottom-line of Hester.
  • During Q4FY22, Hester India acquired 50% equity stake in Threshold Exim Limited, Tanzania, a distribution company of vaccines and animal health products in Tanzania. This acquisition will help strengthen the distribution network of Hester in the African continent.
  • Hester was awarded national tender for supply of 20 crore doses for PPR by the Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying. There is a delay in receiving the supply orders, and is expected to commence in Q1FY23.

Hester will launch 3 pet care products in May,2022 and 6 more to follow in FY23. Management guided for | 3 - | 4 crore revenues from Pet care in FY23.

Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY21 Q3FY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 56.5 64.2 55.7 -12.0 1.4   YoY decline as sales of vaccines declined by 20% YoY
Raw Material Expenses 15.4 17.7 13.3 -12.8 15.7    
Gross Margin (%) 72.7 72.5 76.1 24.4 -337.1   Sequential decline impacted due to increase in proportion of sales of Health Products coupled with an increase in raw material prices
Employee Expenses 12.3 11.1 10.7 10.1 15.1    
Other Expenditure 18.5 15.6 16.7 18.5 10.7    
EBITDA 10.3 19.8 15.0 -47.8 -31.3    
EBITDA (%) 18.3 30.8 27.0 -1,253.3 -870.7   YoY decline amid higher spends on market expansion in the animal health division and higher one-time license and service fees in base of Q4FY21
Interest  1.5 1.4 1.0 4.5 55.9    
Depreciation 5.1 3.6 5.2 41.3 -0.8    
Other Income 7.2 2.5 2.8 190.5 159.0    
PBT before EO & Forex 11.3 17.2 11.7 -34.2 -3.1    
Forex & EO 0.0 3.3 0.0 -100.0      
PBT 11.3 13.9 11.7 -18.4 -3.1    
Tax  2.3 3.8 3.3 -38.9 -31.2    
PAT before MI 9.0 10.1 8.3 -10.8 8.1    
MI 1.3 0.4 -0.2 214.7 -933.8    
Adjusted Net Profit 7.7 13.0 8.5 -40.6 -9.0    
Key Metrics              
Poultry Healthcare 39.7 52.7 41.9 -24.7 -5.3   YoY decline as poultry farm economics also turned adverse due to rise in feed costs and decline in end-product prices.
Animal Healthcare 16.8 11.5 13.8 46.3 21.9   YoY increase largely driven by new product introductions and geographical expansion


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