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Hester Biosciences Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,680.7 Chg : 19.95 (1.20%)
  • Target : 1,830.0 (2.23%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

02 Feb 2023

Animal health drives sales as poultry decline continues

About The Stock

Hester is one of India’s leading animal healthcare companies & the second largest poultry vaccine manufacturer in the country. It has a strategic presence in 30+ countries with key markets being India, Nepal and Tanzania.

  • It operates through four broad verticals: poultry vaccines, poultry health products, animal vaccines and animal health products
  • Sales break-up for Q3FY23: Poultry healthcare: 42%, Animal healthcare: 58%
Q3FY23

Animal healthcare boosted revenues, gross margins impacted due to stock write off.

  • Sales were up 34.6% YoY to ₹ 75 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 19 crore, up 24.9%, with margins at 25%
  • Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 12.3 crore (up 45% YoY)
What should Investors do?

 Hester’s share price has grown at a CAGR of 4.38% over the past three years.                 

  • We maintain HOLD as we monitor the ramp-up in animal healthcare, Africa business, opportunities in pet-care to mitigate slump in legacy poultry vaccines segment
Target Price and Valuation

We value Hester at ₹ 1830 (base business at ₹ 1794 i.e. 30x FY25E EPS of ₹ 59.8 + NPV of ₹ 35 for Covaxin DS opportunity).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Opportunities in animal vaccines such as classical swine fever, lumpy skin disease (only player), sheep pox (only player) in the domestic space and expected launch of the modified Inactivated Coryza Vaccine, along with additional revenue from PPR national tender
  • Increased focus on health products & widening of portfolio with differentiated herbal line of products looks promising for growth prospects
  • Traction from manufacturing from Tanzania facility, Hester Africa and strengthened distribution network in Africa, along with increase in bulk antigen capacity and fill finish line for animal vaccines
  • Foray into pet care with 10 products and new marketing teams in four zones
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Hester, in our healthcare coverage we like Indoco.

  • Indoco manufactures and markets branded formulations and APIs for the domestic and export markets
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 440

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-FY25E)
Revenues 183.3 214.3 235.0 13.8 268.6 301.9 339.4 12.4
EBITDA 55.4 68.7 60.0 8.0 58.3 72.3 84.6 20.5
EBITDA margins(%) 30.2 32.0 25.5 - 21.7 23.9 24.9 -
Adjusted Net Profit 29.2 37.8 38.9 10.7 30.3 42.3 50.9 29.5
EPS (|) 34.3 44.4 45.7 - 35.6 49.7 59.8 -
PE (x) 52.2 44.2 39.1 - 50.2 36.0 29.9 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 29.3 23.4 28.7 - 29.3 23.8 20.3 -
RoNW (%) 14.5 16.5 15.0 - 10.7 13.5 14.4 -
RoCE (%) 14.0 16.2 10.9 - 9.9 10.9 12.0 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Results: Animal healthcare boosts revenue, gross margins impacted by stock write off

  • Hester Bio delivered 34.6% YoY growth at ~| 75 crore. Such a performance was driven by robust performance from the Animal healthcare segment, which saw 216.4% YoY growth and was at ~ | 44 crore. Poultry segment showed a down trend of ~25% at ~ | 31.4 crore during the quarter. Gross profit margins came in at ~71% in Q3FY23 down 3% largely due to write-off of ~ | 1.6 crore of expired vaccine stocks in the poultry healthcare division. On the operational front, EBITDA was at ~ | 19 crore, up 24.9% YoY whereas margins took a hit of 195 bps. Net profit for the company was at | 12.3 crore, up 45.4% YoY. Net profit margins got impacted due to unrealised MTM losses of ~ | 2.44 crore on translation of US dollar loan
  • The growing need for Goat pox vaccine to stop outbreak of lumpy skin disease (LSD) in cattle drove the animal healthcare segment. Poor collection cycles and much fewer new bird placements are the results of high feed costs and low product realisations which affected the Poultry segment revenues. However, the de-growth of vaccine sales was partly offset by the continued growth of the poultry health products sales. Going ahead, Hester is expected to focus on vaccine tailwinds on the back of LSD outbreak and PPR tender while improving sales productivity and scaling-up health products, which remains key for better operating leverage. As Hester Bio strengthens its hold in the animal healthcare space, order flow and pricing power is likely to improve in the near future

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

Vaccine:

  • Hester Bio got an opportunity to serve as the first supplier of PPR vaccine under the Government of India (GoI) tender in January 2023. The overall order value under the tender agreement is ~| 40.6 crore and GoI-approved phased execution is to be completed by Q4FY25
  • During the quarter, it could manage to penetrate across India with its goat pox vaccine and holds 95% share as on date

Poultry healthcare

  • The management expects drastic changes with a revival in the industry coming in latest by end of Q4FY23
  • Hester has agreements in place to purchase both technologies (vaccines for LSD in cattle and Avian Influenza in poultry) developed by Indian Veterinary Research Institute (IVRI).

Pet care division:

  • Currently, this business is a part of animal healthcare portfolio where it launched 10 products in the last six months in 15 territories. The company has guided for further launch of three products in Q4FY23 in the category of deworming and NSAID keeping the seasonal requirements in mind
  • It aspires to add 25 new sales territories from current 15, to penetrate further and drive its revenue growth

Capex initiatives:

  • As opposed to the earlier anticipated completion date of Q4FY23, the Fill-finish (Drug Product) project is expected to be completed in Q1FY24. The delay in equipment delivery impacted its plans. The said expansion is likely to double the vaccine production.

Other highlights:

  • It plans to explore biologics and diagnostic areas as well
  • Exports to African countries continue to take place from Nepal
  • It received few licenses for Hester Africa and registrations are going on in a few other African countries, which should aid growth in future

Disclaimer

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