loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 5,785.0 Chg : 36.50 (0.63%)
  • Target : 2,870.0 (9.33%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

10 Oct 2022

Launches electric 2W under Vida brand as V1 Pro, Plus

About The Stock

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) is the world’s largest 2-W manufacturer by volume, with domestic market share at 34.5% as of FY22. Its suite of popular models includes Splendor, Passion, Glamour, etc.

  • Rural geographies form ~50% sales; 48.3% FY22 motorcycle market share
  • Debt-free b/s with strong return ratios; healthy >50% dividend payout ratio
  • Apart from its own product offering under Vida brand, HMCL is approaching electrification through collaborative investments in Ather Energy, Gogoro (swappable battery sol) & Zero Motorcycles (premium electric motorcycles)
Key Highlights
  • Company launches its maiden captive offering in the electric vehicle space i.e. Vida V1 available in two variants i.e. Vida Vi Pro and Vida V1 Plus. Both the variants have a top speed of 80 km/hr with certified range of 143-165 km and acceleration of 3.2-3.4s for 0-40 kmph.
  • Vida V1 Plus (battery size: 3.44 kwh) is priced at ₹1.45 (ex-showroom) while Vida V1 Pro (battery size: 3.94 kwh) is priced at ₹1.59 (ex-showroom), both prices are inclusive of centre driven FAME-2 subsidy while exclusive of state specific subsidies. They are powered by Li-On battery – NMC chemistry
  • The company plans to launch it in 3 cities in phase 1 i.e. Bengaluru, Delhi and Jaipur with bookings set to commence from 10th October with deliveries set to commence in 2nd week of December.
  • It has fist in industry, buy-back option wherein a customer can return the product back to HMCL in 16-18 months for 70% of the ex-showroom price
  • HMCL’s focus through Vida is also to develop ecosystem of services and charging network around it, providing digitally enabled end-to-end solutions
What should Investors do?

HMCL’s share price has lagged the Nifty Auto Index in the past five years, de-growing at           ~7% CAGR from ~₹ 3,763 levels in Sept 2017.

  • We maintain HOLD rating on HMCL amid muted volume recovery prospects in 2-W segment, HMCL’s focus to target the premium segment in EV space through its offering under brand Vida with premium pricing despite being a mass market mother-brand & slower than anticipated roll-out pan India
Target Price and Valuation

We value HMCL at revised target price of ₹ 2,870 (14x P/E on FY24E EPS & 2.5x P/B to its long term strategic investments in FY24E)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We expect Sales/PAT to grow at a CAGR of 12.1%/16.5% over FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides HMCL, in our auto OEM coverage, we like M&M.

  • Capital consciousness, UV distinction & EV ready. BUY with target of ₹ 1,590

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 33,650.5 28,836.1 30,800.7 29,245.5 0.5 33,720.6 36,768.8 12.1
EBITDA 4,929.8 3,958.0 4,019.2 3,368.7 -6.2 3,930.6 4,710.5 18.3
EBITDA Margins (%) 14.6 13.7 13.0 11.5 - 11.7 12.8 -
Net Profit 3,384.6 3,633.3 2,964.1 2,472.9 -6.0 2,642.2 3,358.1 16.5
Normalised Net Profit 3,384.6 3,202.6 2,964.1 2,472.9 -6.0 2,642.2 3,358.1 16.5
EPS (₹) 169.5 181.9 148.4 123.8 - 132.3 168.2 -
P/E 15.5 14.4 17.7 21.2 - 19.8 15.6 -
RoNW (%) 26.3 22.7 19.5 15.7 - 16.1 19.4 -
RoCE (%) 32.0 21.3 20.8 16.3 - 18.7 21.8 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key Highlights from Launch Event & PPT Highlights…

  • Vida V1 Plus is priced at ₹1.45 (ex-showroom) while Vida V1 Pro is priced at ₹1.59 (ex-showroom).
  • Vida V1 comes with new offers like interest rate on loan lower by 1.5-2% than standard interest rate, assured buyback value of min 70% if returned within 18-20 months, test ride period of 3 days.
  • Battery packs are internally assembled with cells that are imported from LG.
  • Motor is co-developed by company with Brose and is manufactured in India.
  • Company is eligible for FAME II subsidy.
  • Company has spent ~₹3,000 crores on R&D in the last 5 years with significant amount spent in establishing Jaipur CIT facility. This facility has class leading testing machines & labs making company as only 2W OEM to have in-house testing.
  • Company is planning to have largest premium product portfolio (preferable >200cc segment) in coming 3 years.
  • Vida V1 comes in 2 battery size 3.44 Kwh (i.e. 1.7 Kwh*2 pack) & 3.94 Kwh (i.e. 1.9 Kwh*2 pack) & are portable & can be charged at home.
  • Company will focus on top down approach in its EV offering by targeting higher end scooters first and then gradually offering lower end products to fill price gap.
  • 7” TFT display in Vida V1 will soon have mobile screen mirroring feature offered through OTA updates.
  • Vida V1 can be driven in four modes namely Eco, Ride, Custom and Sports
  • Company has undertaken ~2 lakh kms testing for this product
  • Bookings can be made at a token amount of ₹ 2499/unit
  • It will be manufactured at HMCL’s factory at Chittoor, in the state of Andhra Pradesh. Much of its current ICE capacities are easily fungible onto electric vehicles
  • VIDA V1 goes up a gradient of 18+ degrees with a 60 % SOC and 2 riders.
  • The VIDA V1 comes with standard five-year warranty for 50,000 kms. The batteries are covered by a warranty valid for three years or up to 30,000 kms.

 

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.

 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports.

 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research.

 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction.

 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months.

 

 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report.

 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.

 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report.

 

Since associates of ICICI Securities and ICICI Securities as a entity are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or actual/ beneficial ownership of one percent or more or other material conflict of interest various companies including the subject company/companies mentioned in this report.

 

ICICI Securities may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report.

 

Neither the Research Analysts nor ICICI Securities have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report.

 

We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on ICICI Securities by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analysis activities.

 

This report is not directed or intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject ICICI Securities and affiliates to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such restriction.

Read More