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  • CMP : 5,785.0 Chg : 36.50 (0.63%)
  • Target : 2,925.0 (5.98%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 Aug 2022

2-W space yet to show sustained volume recovery…

About The Stock

Hero MotoCorp (HMCL) is the world’s largest 2-W manufacturer by volume, with domestic market share at 34.5% as of FY22. Its suite of popular models includes Splendor, Passion, Glamour, etc.

  • Rural geographies form ~50% sales; 48.3% FY22 motorcycle market share
  • Debt-free b/s with strong return ratios; healthy >50% dividend payout ratio
  • On ground EV presence currently limited to ~35% stake in Ather Energy
Q1FY23

The company reported a muted performance in Q1FY23.

  • Total Sales came in at ₹8,393 crores up 13.1% QoQ, volumes up 16.9% QoQ
  • EBITDA came in at ₹941 crores with margins at 11.2% flat QoQ. Gross margin decline for the quarter stood at ~350 bps QoQ.
  • Consequent standalone PAT was at ₹ 624.4 crore, flat QoQ
What should Investors do?

HMCL’s share price has lagged the Nifty Auto Index in the past five years, de-growing at           ~7.1% CAGR from ~₹ 3,986 levels in Aug 2017.

  • We maintain HOLD amid muffled margin performance, mellow commitment towards EV space & await volume ramp-up during upcoming festive season
Target Price and Valuation

We value HMCL at revised target price of ₹ 2,925 (15x P/E on FY24E EPS & 2.5x P/B to its long term strategic investments in FY24E)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • We expect volume to grow at a CAGR of 8.0% over FY22-24E, driven by need for personal mobility & revival in urban demand. Consequently, revenues are seen growing at an 11.5% CAGR over FY22-24E.
  • With positive operating leverage, cooling off in commodity & higher spares revenues, margins are seen reaching 12.5% by FY24E
  • Exports, spares and Harley tie-up to aid diversification & product mix
  • Own EV launch by festive season, prominent presence in Ather along with partnership with Gogoro complementing co.’s presence in EV space
Alternate Stock Ideas

Besides HMCL, in our auto OEM coverage, we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,550

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 33,650.5 28,836.1 30,800.7 29,245.5 0.5 33,401.2 36,379.7 11.5
EBITDA 4,929.8 3,958.0 4,019.2 3,368.7 -6.2 3,867.7 4,551.5 16.2
EBITDA Margins (%) 14.6 13.7 13.0 11.5 - 11.6 12.5 -
Net Profit 3,384.6 3,633.3 2,964.1 2,472.9 -6.0 2,741.6 3,288.1 15.3
Normalised Net Profit 3,384.6 3,202.6 2,964.1 2,472.9 -6.0 2,741.6 3,288.1 15.3
EPS (₹) 169.5 181.9 148.4 123.8 - 137.3 164.7 -
P/E 16.3 15.2 18.6 22.3 - 20.1 16.8 -
RoNW (%) 26.3 22.7 19.5 15.7 - 16.6 19.0 -
RoCE (%) 32.0 21.3 20.8 16.3 - 18.4 21.1 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Q1FY23 Results:

  • Blended ASP for the quarter were at ~ | 60,370/unit (down 3.3% QoQ). This looks optically declining QoQ, however adjusted for lower spare parts revenues and other operating income it is up 1.5% QoQ at ~₹ 52,000/unit
  • EBITDA in Q1FY23 was at | 941 crore, up 13.7% QoQ with corresponding EBITDA margins at 11.2% (flat QoQ). The company’s witnessed ~350 bps gross margins decline on QoQ basis, the decline however was negated by lower other expenses which were down ~350 bps QoQ at 9.6% of sales. 
  • HMCL’s gross margin decline was on a higher side vs. its peers
  • PAT for the quarter came in at | 624.4 crore, flat QoQ

      

 

 

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • HMCL continues to remain optimistic about domestic demand. Further recovery was witnessed in sales with improvement in market share.
  • HMCL EV launch will be as planned in festive season with dispatch schedules and cities unveiled during launch itself.
  • Spares revenue stood at ₹1061 crores i.e. ~12.6% of top line vs ~₹1,151 crores in Q4FY22. Dip is spares revenue was largely attributed to year end effect with management expects ~13-14% annual run rate.
  • Company is witnessing good traction in premium products like Pleasure XTEC, Splendor XTEC where in demand is outplacing supply.
  • Gross margin decline was tracking commodity inflation kicking in with quarterly lag. Further to offset same company took ~₹850 hike during Q1FY23 and ~₹1,250 per bike on 1st July, 2022. However, still some part of hiked input cost remained unabsorbed.
  • Hero FinCorp financing arm of HMCL is presently operating at ~7% credit cost with focus to reduce to 5-5.5% to improve return on assets & is currently undergoing funding round to increase AUM.
  • Exports for the quarter remained soft due to geopolitical issues and adverse economic conditions in Nepal, Shri Lanka, but management expects H2FY23 to be better for exports.
  • Management expects margin to improve post cooling of raw material process and revival in demand leading to outsized operating leverage gains.
  • The management foresees demand to be healthy in FY23 riding on the back of strong marriage season, pick-up in rural demand & coming festive season. Present inventory levels stood at 6-8 weeks with management planning to increase in run up for the festive season in Q2FY23.
  • Management intends to grow double digit in volumes in FY23E.
  • MTM loss in other income was ~60 crores (including ~25 crore unrealized loss in Gogoro shares)
  • Company’s stake in Ather energy on diluted basis stood at ~35%
  • Other operating income for the quarter stood at 109 crore vs. 186 crore and was largely due to expiration of fiscal incentives for its Neemrana plant (Rajasthan)
  • In Q1FY23 retails were higher than wholesale
  • Chip shortage impacted volume of the premium variants which are in general priced at ~7-10% premium to their base variant
  • Management expects rural income to be healthy despite weak monsoon in some of its key states namely UP, Bihar among others
  • Replacement demand share stands at ~15-18% with its intent to increase it to 20%+ in coming years
  • On the space front, its retail footprint has improved from 39,000 earlier to 40,000 now
  • Financing penetration stands at >50%

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