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  • CMP : 587.9 Chg : -6.85 (-1.15%)
  • Target : 570.0 (10.25%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

02 May 2023

Slowdown in custom synthesis weighs on numbers..

About The Stock

Laurus Labs operates in the segment of generic APIs & FDFs (formulations), custom synthesis and biotechnology. Major focus in APIs is on ARV, oncology and other APIs.

• It owns 11 manufacturing units (six FDA approved sites) with 74 DMFs, 32 ANDAs filed (15 Para IV, 11 first to file) and 192 patents granted.

• Laurus acquired Richore Life Sciences to diversify in recombinant animal origin free products, enzymes as well as building biologics custom synthesis

Q4FY23

Mixed set of numbers with a sharp fall in margins.

• Revenues were in line, down 3.1% YoY at ₹ 1,381 crore

• EBITDA de-grew 28% YoY to ~₹ 286 crore while EBITDA margins corrected ~716 bps YoY to 20.7%, PAT came in at ₹ 105.3 crore for the quarter

What should Investors do?

Laurus Lab’s share price has grown at 41.26% CAGR over the past three years.

• We downgrade from BUY to HOLD as we monitor the progress on execution of the custom synthesis front (post the windfall) in the backdrop of ongoing capex as also margins front, which were below-par during the quarter.

Target Price and Valuation

Valued at ₹ 300 i.e. 23x P/E on FY25E EPS of ₹ 13.0.

Key Triggers for future price performance

Synthesis: Recalibrated approach towards global demand for NCE drug substance with supplies for an animal health contract starting in H2FY24. Setting up dedicated R&D centre and three greenfield manufacturing units (FY24, FY25)

Formulations: Product launches in CV portfolio (FY24) in the US & Europe with target opportunity at ~US$40 billion. Gradual traction from Unit-2, which increased the company’s total capacity to 10 billion units

API: Decent order-book in anti-diabetic, CV & PPI amid capacity expansion in high growth therapeutics with total reactor volume of +7000 KL

Biologics: Expanding the biologics custom synthesis at scale. Commercial scale-up of the new fermentation capacity (food proteins). Ramp up of new capacity R2

Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Laurus, in healthcare coverage we like Granules.

• Granules India is a vertically integrated company that manufactures API, intermediates and finished dosages with vision to play on its strength of economies of scale and expansion into more complex products/forms.

• BUY with a target price of ₹ 355

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR_(FY17-22) FY23 FY24E FY25E 2 year CAGR_(FY23-25E)
Net Sales 2,831.7 4,813.5 4,935.7 21.0 6,041.0 5,607.4 6,175.8 1.1
EBITDA 561.0 1,550.7 1,422.4 30.7 1,592.2 1,345.8 1,544.0 -1.5
EBITDA Margins (%) 19.8 32.2 28.8 - 26.4 24.0 25.0 -
Adj. Profit 255.3 983.6 827.5 39.7 792.5 564.1 697.5 -6.2
Adj. EPS (|) 4.8 18.3 15.4 - 14.7 10.5 13.0 -
PE (x) 61.5 16.0 19.0 - 19.8 27.8 22.5 -
RoE (%) 14.4 37.9 24.7 - 19.6 12.4 13.5 -
RoCE (%) 13.0 31.7 21.3 - 19.8 14.6 16.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY23 Results: Mixed set of numbers with sharp fall in margins

• Revenues were down 3.1% YoY at | 1,381 crore. The overall performance was subdued particularly from custom synthesis and ARVs FDF segment. Custom synthesis revenues in Q4FY23 declined ~37% YoY at | 228 crore, which had a high base due to big pharma order. Pricing remained depressed impacting ARVs FDF segment by 20% YoY at | 393 crore. On the operational front, EBITDA de-grew 28% YoY to ~| 286 crore while EBITDA margins corrected ~716 bps YoY to 20.7%. PAT was at |105.3 crore for the quarter

• Laurus Labs' Q4 revenues were in line but deviated on the margin front, mainly due to a change in product mix, commissioning of new capacities, higher inflation as well as forex impact compared to last year. Overall, its focus remains intact on non-ARV APIs and formulations as well as on highgrowth custom synthesis segments. Laurus is poised for growth in the long term with its multiple capacity expansion plans in portfolio based on complexity and scale towards strengthening and diversifying business

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:

Segmental mix:

API:

▪ Overall segment delivered strong numbers with 32.5% growth on YoY basis at ₹ 714 crore. It was largely supported by oncology APIs, up 83.4% YoY followed by a steady ramp-up from the other API business, which was up 36.6% on the back of ramp up in the new contract supplies. ARV APIs, which witnessed volume led improvement, showed a jump of +17%

▪ The company is planning to incur capex for synthesis business of ~| 800 crore. The capex executed in FY23 is expected to start generating revenue from H2Y24

FDF:

▪ The company experienced overall softness in ARV demand as well as weak pricing during the quarter ▪ The management has guided for stable growth from developed markets with higher generic volumes on the cards

Custom Synthesis:

▪ In Q4, custom synthesis underperformed, which had a high base due to the execution of Big Pharma purchase order

▪ The company is actively working on over 60 projects and sees healthy momentum overall with scale up in the project pipeline

▪ The capex plan for Custom Synthesis capability remains as per schedule, which is expected to bring new opportunities and platform technologies Laurus Bio division: ▪ Delivered strong recovery with +31% YoY growth. It was mainly driven by improvement in production downtime and traction in CDMO business.

▪ New site planned is likely to strengthen its capabilities in AOF proteins and growth factors.

▪ New capacity implemented at R2 is in the ramp up phase and the debottlenecking is expected to be complete by end of Q1FY24

Other highlights:

▪ Capacity utilisation in Q4FY23 remained at 55-60% levels ▪ Generic sales in the US are not that significant. Thus, it is less likely to impact the overall business performance due to any uncertainties

▪ Its future capex is advancing as per plan and remains inclined towards strengthening Custom Synthesis and Non-ARV generics ▪ R&D spent in FY23 accounted for ~3.5% of revenues

▪ Increased business in CMO project pipeline & started new Sterile lab Laurus  The API capacities improved by 30% during FY23 and are at various stages of commercial production. ▪ It was successful in filling dossiers in developed markets like US, Europe and Canada with total 60 products in R&D pipeline. ▪ Commercial GMP manufacturing for animal products is expected to start production from H2FY24.

Disclaimer

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