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  • CMP : 1,001.5 Chg : 1.20 (0.12%)
  • Target : 1,920.0 (20.0%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

15 Jan 2023

Beat in estimates; deposits accretion remains key

About The Stock

HDFC Bank is a leading private sector bank with consistent growth and operational performance over various cycles. The bank has maintained superior return ratios compared to its peers resulting in premium valuations.

  • Largest private sector bank with loan book of ₹ 15.0 lakh crore
  • Consistent performance with +4% NIM and +15% RoE in past many years
Q3FY23

Beat NII & PAT estimates; asset quality steady.

  • Healthy loan growth at 19.5% YoY to ₹ 15.06 lakh crore; deposits up 19.9%
  • NII up 24.6% YoY, NIMs steady QoQ at 4.1%, C/I at 39.6% vs. 37.0% YoY lead by increased opex and staff cost
  • Credit cost declined to 0.74%, PAT up 18.5% YoY at ₹ 12259 crore
  • GNPA & NNPA steady at 1.23% and 0.33% QoQ, respectively
What should Investors do?

HDFC Bank’s share price has grown more than 25% in the past three years. Building of distribution capabilities and business growth to remain buoyant though merger with HDFC Ltd to remain in focus in the near term.

  • We remain positive and retain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

HDFC Bank is expected to deliver higher than industry growth along with RoA of ~2% in FY25E. Rolling to FY25E, we value HDFC Bank at ~2.8x FY25E ABV & ₹ 50 for subsidiaries and revise our target price from ₹ 1750 to
₹ 1920/share.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Change in asset mix and rate transmission to keep margins steady
  • Deposit accretion will remain in focus though the management indicated that it will be supported by branch expansion and relationship building
  • Steady asset quality and enough provision buffer provides comfort. Physical/digital capabilities to keep the bank ahead of its competitors
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from HDFC Bank, we also like Axis Bank.

  • Strong liabilities franchise, adequate capitalisation and healthy provision buffer to aid business growth as well as earnings trajectory
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1000

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR _(FY19-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
NII 56,186.0 64,880.0 72,010.0 0.1 85,250.0 99,540.0 116,816.0 0.3
PPP 48,750.0 57,362.0 64,077.0 0.2 73,510.0 85,823.0 100,774.0 0.3
PAT 26,257.0 31,117.0 36,961.0 0.2 43,633.0 51,939.0 61,508.0 0.3
ABV (|) 305.4 361.3 425.0 - 484.8 556.8 658.6 -
P/E 33.4 28.3 20.4 - 20.3 17.1 14.4 -
P/ABV 5.2 4.4 3.2 - 3.3 2.9 2.4 -
RoA 1.9 1.9 1.9 - 2.0 2.0 2.0 -
RoE 16.4 16.6 16.7 - 16.9 17.5 17.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 22,987.8 21,834.9 18,443.5 24.6 21,021.2 9.4 Partly driven by interest on I-T refund of | 300 crore
NIM (%) 4.1 4.0 4.1 0.0 4.1 0.0  
Other Income 8,499.8 8,687.1 8,183.6 3.9 7,595.6 11.9 Primary driven by growth in fee & comission income
Net Total Income 31,487.7 30,522.0 26,627.0 18.3 28,616.7 10.0  
Staff cost 4,126.2 3,627.6 3,154.4 30.8 3,523.8 17.1  
Other Operating Expenses 8,337.4 7,701.2 6,696.7 24.5 7,700.7 8.3 C/I ratio steady at 39.6% on sequential basis
PPP 19,024.1 19,193.3 16,776.0 13.4 17,392.2 9.4  
Provision 2,806.4 3,164.7 2,994.0 -6.3 3,240.1 -13.4 Credit cost further moderated to 0.74%
PBT 16,217.6 16,028.6 13,782.0 17.7 14,152.0 14.6  
Tax 3,958.1 4,007.1 3,439.8 15.1 3,546.3 11.6  
PAT 12,259.5 12,021.4 10,342.2 18.5 10,605.8 15.6 Beat estimates led by strong business growth
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 18,764 18,484 16,014 17.2 18,301 2.5  
NNPA 5,024 4,931 4,677 7.4 4,883 2.9  
Advances 15,06,809 15,07,000 12,60,863 19.5 14,79,873 1.8 Growth driven by retail and commercial segment
Deposits 17,33,204 17,33,500 14,45,918 19.9 16,73,408 3.6 CASA up 12% YoY

 

Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Retail deposits comprise ~85% of total deposits. Within CASA deposits, retail CASA grew 14% YoY and retail current account (CA) (~70% of total CA deposits) grew 14% YoY while wholesale CA deposits de-grew 4% YoY. The management will continue to focus on granular deposit accretion, which will be partly aided by branch addition in the near term
  • Expect healthy credit demand from NBFCs, telecom, PSU and infrastructure segments to sustain
  • MTM income during the quarter was mainly from AFS investments vs. overall MTM losses in the previous quarter
  • Other interest income was partly led by income from RIDF and ~6 bps was from interest on IT refund (~| 300 crore)
  • Margins may witness some pressure in the near term. However, it will remain in a historical range
  • Employee cost was led by addition in branches, cost of Esop (~ | 250 crore). Most of the staff addition will be done on customer facing roles (currently ~84%)
  • Out of 1.23% GNPA ~17 bps is standard while slippage ratio during the quarter was 42 bps (| 6600 crore). Recoveries and upgrades were at | 3100 crore (~31 bps) and sale of NPAs ~| 200 crore. Restructuring was at ~42 bps (| 6400 crore)
  • PCR on stage 3 book was at 57% while PCR on secured and unsecured book was at 64% and 85%, respectively
  • The bank has acquired 1.2 mn cards during the quarter vs. slightly lower than ~1 mn in Q2FY23
  • Digital platforms are adding 80000 merchants per month
  • The bank added 684 branches during the quarter while gold loan processing is offered from 3938 branches
  • LCR was ~113% during the quarter
  • Update on merger – The NCLT hearing is on January 27, 2023

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