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HDFC Asset Management Company Ltd>
  • CMP : 3,730.1 Chg : 12.35 (0.33%)
  • Target : 2,050.0 (16.15%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

26 Apr 2023

Steady performance; regulatory overhang weighs…

About The Stock

HDFC AMC is among the largest and profitable mutual funds with an QAAUM of ~₹ 4.4 lakh crore as on March 2023.

  • Market share as on Q4FY23 was at 11.1%
  • Strong distribution network with 228 branches and over 75,000 empanelled distribution partners
Q4FY23

Overall, the company reported a steady operational performance.

  • AUM down 2.5% QoQ to ₹ 4.36 lakh crore; equity AUM flat QoQ
  • Revenue from operation up 4.8% YoY and down 3.3% QoQ to ₹ 541 crore
  • Blended yields remained steady QoQ at ~50 bps
  • PAT came in at ₹ 376 crore, aided by steady core PBT. PAT as percentage of AUM was steady at ~34 bps
What should Investors do?

HDFC AMC’s share price has underperformed owing to a subdued AUM trajectory and uncertainty related to revision in TER rates and structure. Anticipated change in regulations and a gradual decline in yields remain challenges. However, given the under penetration and increased acceptance as investment vehicle, we believe the recent correction in stock price provides a good entry opportunity to investors.

  • Thus, we maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

HDFC AMC continues to showcase relative operational strength. Going ahead, a pick-up in AUM momentum and gain in market share amid improved performance is seen compensating for pressure on yield & driving earnings growth. Thus, we value the business at ~25x FY25E EPS and revise our target price from ₹ 2250 to ₹ 2050.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • A better performance is expected to aid a gradual improvement in market share. New product launches should support AUM growth
  • Continued strong SIP inflow (primarily in equity schemes) trend is expected to aid AUM growth and yields

Investment in tech and business development along with focus on keeping opex in a tight range to aid earnings momentum

Alternate Stock

Apart from HDFC AMC, we like MCX.

  • MCX is the leader in commodity derivatives exchanges in India with ~96.8% market share in terms of commodity futures turnover
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1700

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 3 Year CAGR(FY20-FY23) FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23-FY25E)
Revenue from operation (| crore) 2,003.3 1,852.5 2,115.4 2,166.8 2.7 2,412.0 2,664.1 10.9
PBT (| crore) 1,682.7 1,763.2 1,855.2 1,870.6 3.6 2,014.0 2,243.8 9.5
Net Profit (| crore) 1,292.1 1,340.0 1,393.0 1,423.9 3.3 1,520.6 1,694.1 9.1
EPS (|) 59.2 63.2 66.4 67.9 - 72.5 80.8 -
P/E (x) 29.7 27.8 26.5 25.9 - 24.3 21.8 -
AUM /share (|) 15,224.1 18,867.9 19,444.1 20,434.0 - 23,849.0 26,892.6 -
P/AUM (%) 11.6 9.3 9.1 8.6 - 7.4 6.5 -
DPS (|) 28.0 34.0 42.0 48.0 - 51.3 57.1 -
RoE (%) 32.1 28.1 25.2 23.3 - 23.2 24.0 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q4FY23 Q4FY23E Q4FY22 YoY (%) Q3FY23 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue from operation 541.0 583.5 516.3 4.8 559.6 -3.3   Steady AUM and asset mix led to subdued revenue
Revenue/AUM  0.50% 0.50% 0.51% -1 bps 0.50% 0 bps   Strong inflow in index debt segment offset outflow from liquid segment
Other Income 96.9 81.8 64.7 49.9 103.4 -6.3    
                 
Net Total Income 637.8 665.3 580.9 9.8 662.9 -3.8    
Staff cost 71.9 82.4 71.4 0.6 79.0 -9.0    
Other Operating Expenses 74.2 79.9 66.9 11.0 83.2 -10.8    
                 
Total Expense 146.1 162.2 138.3 5.6 162.2 -9.9   Moderation in opex led to steady core PBT
                 
PBT 491.8 503.0 442.7 11.1 500.7 -1.8    
Tax Outgo 115.6 123.2 99.1 16.6 131.3 -12.0    
PAT 376.2 379.8 343.6 9.5 369.4 1.8   Steady core PBT & marginal decline in tax rate led to increase in PAT
                 
Total AUM 4,36,700 4,67,267 4,07,600 7.1 4,48,100 -2.5   Market share down 10 bps QoQ; equity market share up ~10 bps

 

Q4FY23 Results: Earnings Conference Call highlights

·        Yields were lower in Q4FY23 due to lower working days (two days less), which impacted revenue by ~| 12 crore and year-end adjustments for unabsorbed cost for B30, which was debited at the fund level

·        Segment wise yields – Equity: 70 bps, Debt: 27bps, Liquid – 13 bps

·        Launched one equity thematic sectoral fund and one long duration debt fund. Closed HDFC AMC select AIF (| 400 crore)

·        Higher opex was due to business promotion, travel, digital, IT infra expense

·        The Esop plan has been approved where 10.5 lakh shares will be offered to eligible employees. Estimated non-cash charge over the next three years would be | 55-60 crore out of which 55% will be accounted in FY24, 30% in FY25 and balance in FY26. Over and above this, the company have a debit of | 18 crore from existing schemes

·        Jump in trade receivable is due to change in periodicity of payment

 

·        NFO as percentage of net sales in FY23 was lower than pace in FY22. NFOs in FY24 will not be much. Yields on non-NFOs are coming in better and the pace of yield dilution is expected to decline

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

 

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.     

 

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