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  • CMP : 2,674.7 Chg : 10.0 (0.38%)
  • Target : 2,250.0 (14.62%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

25 Jan 2023

Decent performance with marginal market share gain…

About The Stock

HDFC AMC is among the largest and profitable mutual funds with an QAAUM of ~₹ 4.4 lakh crore as on December 2022.

  • Market share as on Q3FY23 was at 11.2%
  • Strong distribution network with 228 branches and over 75,000 empanelled distribution partners
Q3FY23

Decent operational performance.

  • AUM up 6.1% QoQ to ₹ 4.48 lakh crore; equity AUM up 8% QoQ
  • Revenue from operation was flat YoY and grew 2.7% QoQ to ₹ 559 crore
  • Overall yields remained steady QoQ at ~50 bps
  • PAT came in at ₹ 369 crore, aided by other income. PAT as percentage of AUM was at ~33 bps
What should Investors do?

HDFC AMC’s share price has corrected recently due to subdued industry AUM. We believe this gives a good entry opportunity to investors.

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

HDFC AMC continues to showcase relative operational strength. We cut our estimates amid anticipated reduction in yield led by reduction in total expense ratio (TER) and accretion in debt AUM. However, growth in AUM amid gain in market share to compensate for pressure on yield & drive earnings growth. Thus, we value the business at ~27x FY25E EPS and revise our target from ₹ 2600 to ₹ 2250.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Opex likely to remain elevated in near term due to continued tech investments, business promotion activities, new launches. However, it will reflect in business growth gradually
  • Healthy pipeline of new product launches to aid AUM growth and market share gain
  • Experienced team, strong distribution network and scheme performance are positives in the long run
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from HDFC AMC, we like Nippon Life AMC.

  • Nippon Life India AMC is among the largest asset managers in India. The company has a strong distribution network with 85500+ distributors
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 330

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 3 year CAGR_(FY19-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR _(FY22-25E)
Revenue from operation (| crore) 2,003.3 1,852.5 2,115.4 3.4 2,193.9 2,423.3 2,676.8 8.2
PBT (| crore) 1,682.7 1,763.2 1,855.2 10.5 1,891.0 2,090.8 2,331.9 7.9
Net Profit (| crore) 1,292.1 1,340.0 1,393.0 14.4 1,427.7 1,568.1 1,749.0 7.9
EPS (|) 59.2 63.2 66.4 - 68.1 74.8 83.4 -
P/E (x) 33.0 31.0 29.5 - 28.7 26.2 23.5 -
AUM /share (|) 15,224.1 18,867.9 19,444.1 - 21,257.4 23,961.3 27,021.7 -
P/AUM (%) 12.9 10.4 10.1 - 9.2 8.2 7.2 -
DPS (|) 28.0 34.0 42.0 - 43.1 47.3 52.7 -
RoE (%) 32.1 28.1 25.2 - 23.6 23.6 26.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Variance Table

  Q3FY23 Q3FY23E Q3FY22 YoY (%) Q2FY23 QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue from operation 559.6 573.8 549.7 1.8 544.7 2.7   Decent performance led by uptick in AUM trajectory
Revenue/AUM  0.50% 0.52% 0.50% 0 bps 0.52% -2 bps   Equity mix witnessed an uptick
Other Income 103.4 66.9 86.2 19.9 104.2 -0.8    
                 
Net Total Income 662.9 640.7 635.9 4.3 648.9 2.2   Aided by healthy other income
Staff cost 79.0 85.2 77.5 1.9 83.9 -5.8    
Other Operating Expenses 83.2 75.7 73.3 13.6 72.0 15.7    
                 
Total Expense 162.2 160.9 150.7 7.6 155.8 4.1    
                 
PBT 500.7 479.8 485.2 3.2 493.1 1.5    
Tax Outgo 131.3 117.5 125.4 4.7 129.0 1.8    
PAT 369.4 362.2 359.8 2.7 364.1 1.4   Healthy earnings aided by other income
                 
Total AUM 4,48,100 4,45,704 4,36,700 2.6 4,22,200 6.1   Market share increased by 20 bps QoQ

 

Q3FY23 Results: Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Operating revenue margin was at ~50 bps of AUM. Product margins on a standalone basis were steady QoQ. Current yield in portfolio had gone up in line with the rise in interest rates
  • Employee cost is expected to increase by 10% in FY24E. The new product related expenses should come down
  • Over a period of time, growth in AUM will compensate for margins and, hence, earnings should see a healthy uptick
  • SIP book AUM was at | 84800 crore, out of which ~77% is over 10 years tenure
  • AUM mix: Equity – 54.5% and balance debt, liquid and others
  • Launched HDFC thematic fund and received AUM of | 2340 crore during the NFO. Also launched multiple debt index fund in Gift city
  • Outflows in debt segment was a result of rise in interest rates on deposits and other investments. The management indicated a gradual reduction in outflows and further easing of pressure as interest rates peak out
  • AUM above | 5000 crore, dilute TER by 2-3 bps and during Q3FY23, three large funds crossed the mark of | 5000 crore. Margins in the long term will be driven by asset mix coupled with flows coming in
  • The company on-boarded two independent directors during Q3FY23
  • Initiatives taken in AIF segment to result in market share gain gradually over the next three to five years

Disclaimer

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I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com, Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.                

 

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