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HCL Technologies Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,504.2 Chg : 24.90 (1.68%)
  • Target : 1,220.0 (16.19%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

22 Apr 2023

Slight miss in services revenue in FY23; 6.5-8.5% CC growth guidance for FY24

About The Stock

HCL Technologies (HCLT) offers IT, ER&D and products to BFSI, retail, health, telecommunication, manufacturing, media & hi-tech verticals.

  • HCL Tech has 250 Fortune 500 and 650 global 2000 clients
  • It has grown organically and inorganically (14.9% CAGR over FY18-23)
Q4FY23 Results:

HCLT reported steady Q4FY23 results.

  • In CC terms on a QoQ basis, revenue declined 1.2%; IT Services increased 1.6%, ER&D declined 3.8% & P&P declined 14.6%
  • EBIT margin at the company level declined ~150 bps QoQ to 18.1%
  • Reported TCV of US$2.1 billion (bn), down 11.6% QoQ
What should Investors do?

HCLT’s share price has grown by ~2.1x over the past five years (from ~₹ 458 in April 2018 to ~₹ 1,050 levels in April 2023).

  • We maintain our BUY rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value HCLT at ₹ 1220 i.e. 19x P/E on FY25E EPS.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • The company continues to win multiyear deals in Cloud transformation, cyber security, etc, as new deal bookings continue to be strong
  • Guidance of FY24 for company revenue growth of 6-8% & services revenue growth of 6.5-8.5% provides visibility for steady growth
  • With improvement in large deal wins, vendor consolidation opportunity, expansion in geographies, investment in sales & capabilities, we expect HCLT to register 9.8% CAGR in revenues over FY23-25E
Alternate Stock Ideas

Apart from HCLT, in our IT coverage we also like Infosys.

  • Key beneficiary of improved digital demand, industry leading revenue growth and healthy capital allocation prompt us to be positive
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,600

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 5 year CAGR (FY18-23) FY24E FY25E 2 year CAGR (FY23-25E)
Net Sales 70,678.0 75,379.0 85,651.0 101,456.0 14.9 111,461.6 122,329.1 9.8
EBITDA 16,694.0 19,481.5 20,041.0 22,628.0 14.6 24,744.5 27,034.7 9.3
Margins (%) 23.6 25.8 23.4 22.3 - 22.2 22.1 -
Net Profit 11,062.0 12,434.5 13,516.0 14,851.0 11.1 15,913.8 17,462.7 8.4
EPS (|) 40.8 45.8 49.8 54.8 - 58.7 64.4 -
P/E 25.8 22.9 21.1 19.2 - 17.9 16.3 -
RoNW (%) 21.6 20.8 21.8 22.7 - 23.2 24.8 -
RoCE (%) 23.0 23.5 24.2 27.1 - 28.4 30.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • Reported term: The company reported rupee revenues of | 26,606 crore, down 0.4% QoQ & up 17.7% YoY while dollar revenues came in at US$3,235 million (mn), down 0.3% QoQ & up 8.1% YoY. IT Services reported revenue of US$2,387 mn, up 2.6% QoQ. ER&D revenue declined 3.3% QoQ to US$521 mn due to ramp down by certain clients while Software (P&P) revenue declined 14.1% QoQ to US$343 mn due to seasonality impact. The company for the first time reported Annual Recuring Revenue (ARR) for software business, which is annualised value of all subscription licenses & SaaS contracts active on the last day of quarter. The company reported ARR value of US$1,028.2 mn, up 5.2% YoY in CC terms & 3.6% in dollar terms

 

  • In CC terms: Revenue declined 1.2% QoQ. IT services revenue grew 1.6% QoQ while ER&D & Software business declined 3.8% & 14.6% QoQ

 

  • Vertical wise, in CC terms, financial services (21.2% of mix) grew 6.9% QoQ and Lifescience (17.5% of mix) grew 3.6% QoQ while TMPE, Manufacturing & Hi-tech declined 5.6%, 3.5% & 1.6%, respectively, on a QoQ basis

 

  • Geography wise in CC terms, America region (63.8% of mix) grew 1.8% QoQ while Europe (28.9% of mix) & RoW declined 1.4% & 1.9% QoQ, respectively

 

  • At the company level, EBIT margin declined ~150 bps QoQ to 18.1% while IT services margin increased ~30 bps. The company indicated the following headwinds for decline in margins: i) -125 bps impact of software business decline & ii) -50 bps impact of decline in ER&D business mitigated by +30 impact due to cost efficiency levers

 

  • For FY23, the company reported revenue of US$12,586 mn, up 9.6% while in CC terms it grew 13.7%. IT services revenue grew 15.8% CC terms while in dollar terms the revenue came in at US$9,187 mn, up 11%. The company for FY23 reported EBIT margin of 18.2% compared to 18.9% in FY22. IT services EBIT margin came in at 16.6% for FY23

 

  • The company indicated that it started the year on a strong note but geopolitical issues, high inflation as well as high interest rate has deteriorated market sentiments in H2. HCLT indicated that despite these challenges, overall growth for the year was better. It was broad based across sectors and verticals. The company indicated that it crossed the milestone of | 1 lakh crore revenue in FY23 and growth of 15.8% in CC for FY23 was completely organic. HCLT also indicated that it continues to gain market share in FY23 and has also aided strong growth. The company also indicated that at the company level in FY23, it witnessed minimum margin dilution among peers. HCLT mentioned ER&D revenue decline for the quarter largely pertains to project ramp-downs across its hi-tech & telecom clients. The company indicated that the pain likely to continue in Q1

 

  • The company mentioned that since clients’ budgets normally freeze in Q1CY23 and it does have a visibility of its spending pattern. It does not see any incremental project ramp downs by clients in the near future beyond discretionary spending in nature. The company also indicated that budgets in tech and telecom sectors have been finalised and it is not seeing any pain. The company mentioned that in the BFSI vertical, there could be some pain in the banking subsector but spending patterns in investment banking & insurance continue to be strong. It also added that spending in a few verticals due to high inflation is under check

 

 

 

  • The company indicated that IT infrastructure modernisation, data & analytics, cloud & cybersecurity continue to be key areas of investment from a client perspective as it has ever increased demand in the market. HCLT indicated it is well prepared for any cyclicality in the business cycles and corresponding tech spends. The company mentioned that it is witnessing a delay in decision making from clients as well as few ramp downs but that largely pertains to discretionary spends. HCLT mentioned that clients are looking to optimise its costs. That is where cost take out deal opportunity pie is expanding. The company also indicated that in case of its large clients where there have been layoffs recently, it is not hiring resources at its end but is using external providers like HCL Tech for fulfilling demand. The company indicated that another leg of growth, which it is currently witnessing is in the form of business restructuring from a few of its large clients

 

  • The company won 13 large deals in the quarter which include i) one mega deal that it won in September 2023. It has started execution in Q4. The execution started in the last month of Q4 and the full impact of this will be visible from Q1FY24 onwards ii) it won a large deal in the BFSI space in December 2023. The company indicated that deal execution for the same has started in Q1FY24 while it mentioned that the deal has started as per original plan and there is no delay

 

  • The company indicated that it has minimal exposure to the regional banks, which are in financial trouble in the US region. HCLT indicated that its exposure to lower credit rating banks is <1% as per its internal assessment. The company indicated that it continues to increase market share in FY23 and that trend is likely to continue in FY24. In the BFSI space, it indicated that it registered three wins during the quarter across three geographies including two large deals. It also indicated that in its deal with a large capital market player, it is benefitting from vendor consolidation as it is consolidating its position with another player of one-third size that of HCL Tech. The company is also seeing a number of consolidation opportunities in the technology and telecom verticals where it is likely to consolidate with small players. HCLT is expecting to gain market share in the telecom space as all large telecom players are likely to increase their spending

 

  • The company indicated that tax rate for FY23 was 23.9% but the tax rate for FY24 will be in the range of 25.5-26.5%. HCLT mentioned that higher tax rate is due to certain units moving to higher tax rate as well some units are coming out of tax benefits. The company mentioned that cash tax rate will be in the range of 20.5% to 21.5% as it continues to pay MAT in India and also mentioned that there is MAT credit available with it, which is to the tune of US$225 mn, 50% of which would be used in FY24 and the rest in FY25

 

  • The company indicated that customers who have expanded digital landscape and in cloud transformation journey, are now looking to optimise their spend on cloud. HCLT also indicated it is now making some changes in its operations to facilitate the same. The company also indicated that it is not discretionary in nature and is run to business opportunity. It further mentioned that it is also visible in the product business
    • The company indicated that Europe region is not performing for them despite strong bookings there due to slower decision making. The company indicated that pipeline continue to be strong there and expects a recovery in the region from Q2FY24 onwards. The company mentioned that in the US region it sees a continuance of its programs

 

  • The company indicated that ER&D business lost US$18-19mn revenue for the quarter due to client ramp downs. HCLT indicated that margins also were down in ER&D as the company carry costs despite ramp down from clients

 

  • The company continued to win TCV in its aspired ranged of US$2-2.5 bn and in Q4 it won TCV of US$2.1 bn, down 11.6% QoQ and 8.2% YoY
 
  • The company during the quarter added 3,674 net new employees taking the total employee count to 225,944. The company during the quarter added 4,480 freshers taking the fresher hiring to 26,734 for FY23, which was lower than the guided range of 30-35 freshers. For FY23, the company added 17,067 net new employees compared to 39,900 net employees’ additions in FY22
 
  • LTM attrition of the company declined 220 bps QoQ to 19.5%
 
  • The company declared a final dividend of | 18 per share bringing total dividend payout for FY23 to | 48 per share. HCLT indicated that the dividend payout for FY23 came in at 87.5% and also mentioned that it has fixed April 28 as the record date for determining the eligible shareholders for payment of dividend
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q4FY23   Q4FY23E   Q4FY22   YoY (%)   Q3FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 26,606 26,504 22,597 17.7 26,700 -0.4 In CC terms, IT services revenue grew by 1.6% QoQ while ER&D and Software business reported decline of 3.8% & 14.6%. At company level the revenue declined by 1.2% QoQ in CC terms 
Cost of sales (including 17,327 17,148 14,672 18.1 17,135 1.1  
employee expenses)              
Gross Margin 9,279 9,356 7,925 17.1 9,565 -3.0  
Gross margin (%) 34.9 35.3 35.1 -20 bps 35.8 -95 bps  
Selling & marketing costs 3,416 3,340 2,872 18.9 3,200 6.8  
               
EBITDA 5,863 6,016 5,053 16.0 6,365 -7.9  
EBITDA Margin (%) 22.0 22.7 22.4 -32 bps 23.8 -180 bps  
Depreciation 1,027 1,200 984 4.4 1,136 -9.6  
EBIT 4,836 4,816 4,069 18.8 5,229 -7.5  
EBIT Margin (%) 18.2 18.2 18.0 17 bps 19.6 -141 bps headwinds for decline in margins: i) -125 bps impact of software business decline & ii) -50 bps impact of decline in ER&D business mitigated by +30 impact due to cost efficiency levers
Other income 357 144 252 41.7 144 147.9  
PBT 5,193 4,960 4,321 20.2 5,373 -3.4  
Tax paid 1,214 1,240 721 68.4 1,276 -4.9  
PAT 3,983 3,719 3,594 10.8 4,096 -2.8  

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Sameer Pardikar, MBA, Sujay Chavan, MMS, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5% to 15%;

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Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

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