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  • CMP : 733.3 Chg : -18.45 (-2.45%)
  • Target : 915.0 (24.49%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

11 Feb 2023

Strong execution; healthy outlook!

About The Stock

HG Infra Engineering Ltd is a Jaipur (Rajasthan) based infrastructure company having primary focus on Roads and allied sectors. Additionally, the company is actively looking to diversify itself by targeting into railways, airport, and water infra segment.

  • Reported 27.9% revenue CAGR over FY17-22 with improved operating margin
  • Prudent management, lean balance sheet position, superior return ratios
Q3FY23
  • Standalone revenue was up 22.7% YoY to ₹ 1131.7 crore, aided by execution pickup across majority of its project sites.
  • EBITDA margin stood at an elevated level of 16.8% (up 30 bps YoY) aided by one-time early completion bonus of ₹ 14.4 crore. Adj. Margin was 15.7%. Reported EBITDA at ₹ 190 crore, was up 25% YoY
  • At net level, strong topline performance coupled better margins translated into 26% YoY growth in PAT to ₹ 111.9 crore
What should Investors do?

HG Infra’s share price has grown at 22% CAGR over past 5 years (from ~₹ 268 in March 2018 to ₹ 735 levels currently).

  • We maintain BUY rating as we expect picked up execution pace to drive strong earnings growth ahead.
Target Price and Valuation

We value HG Infra at a target price of ₹ 915

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • HG Infra is likely to be one of the major recipients of thriving roads, railways and water supply segments. Healthy inflows to aid its order book position.
  • Strong order book position, receipt of appointed date in most of its projects, and execution pick-up to translate into 18% topline CAGR over FY22-25E
  • Current order mix with built-in raw material price variation clauses in most of its contracts provides margin sustainability at ~15.5-16%
  • Double-digit return ratios, and lean balance sheet position
New Stock Ideas

Besides HG Infra, we like NCC in Infra space

  • Play on strong execution and margins improvement
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 120/share

Key Financial Summary

(| Crore) FY20 FY21 FY22 5 yr CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 yr CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 2,196.1 2,535.0 3,615.2 27.9 4,395.4 5,153.5 5,932.7 18.0
EBITDA 342.4 418.1 584.8 36.3 699.1 795.0 912.9 16.0
EBITDA Margin (%) 15.6 16.5 16.2 - 15.9 15.4 15.4 -
Net Profit 165.7 211.0 338.8 44.7 414.4 458.4 525.5 15.8
EPS (|) 25.4 32.4 52.0 - 63.6 70.3 80.6 -
P/E (x) 28.9 22.7 14.1 - 11.6 10.4 9.1 -
Price / Book (x) 5.8 4.6 3.5 - 2.7 2.2 1.7 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.8 11.5 8.6 - 7.5 6.7 5.9 -
RoCE (%) 23.2 25.9 28.7 - 27.2 24.9 23.6 -
RoE (%) 20.2 20.4 24.8 - 23.4 20.6 19.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key performance highlight and outlook

Order book robust at 2.8x revenues; provides healthy visibility

As on Q3, HG Infra’s order book stood robust at | 11064 crore (2.8x book to TTM revenues). Overall, the company has guided for order inflows of ~| 9000-10,000 crore during FY23 (already secured order inflows | 5700 crore as of 9MFY23), to be driven by a strong order pipeline in roads segment and growing opportunities in the other infrastructure verticals such as railways, and water supply. On the execution front, the company expects ramp up in execution to continue driven by a) its robust order book position, b) receipt of appointed date in most of its projects (except for new orders worth | 850 crore), and c) no major hindrances from external factors such as rains, etc. With these, the company has guided for 22-25% YoY growth in topline during FY23 (to | 4400-4500 crore) and ~22-25% YoY growth during FY24.  Further, operating margin is likely to sustain at 15.5-16% going ahead with softening in input prices and better operating efficiencies.

Debt to decline ahead…

HG Infra’s balance sheet has remained lean over the years backed by its prudent strategy to mainly focus on an asset light business model and efficient manage working capital. At the end of Q4FY23, its gross debt, cash and cash equivalent at the standalone level stood at | 471.4 crore, | 13.8 crore, respectively (gross debt was up by | 79 crore on QoQ basis). It expects debt to reduce by ~50 crore QoQ led by cash generation and equipment sale. Going forward, it has total equity requirement of | 1,270 crore (| 720 crore already invested till Q3FY23; | 38 crore, | 330 crore, | 170 crore to be spent during balance period of FY23, FY24, FY25 respectively) towards already secured HAM projects. Despite these, its debt is likely to be controlled, aided by healthy operating cash flow generation arising from improved profitability, better cash flow management and normalization in debtor days (backed by receipt of pending mobilization advances). Also, monetisation of HAM assets would free its invested capital, in-turn, increase its ability to bag newer projects.

Key conference call takeaways                

  • The company received early completion bonus of | 14.4 crore (HG’s share) for Narnaul bypass HAM. Adjusted EBITDA margin stood at 15.7% in Q3FY23 vs. reported margins of 16.7%. HG expects bonus of | 4.5 crore in Q4 for Rewari Ateli HAM.
  • The company indicated that overall bid pipeline is | 80000 crore of which | 73000 crore is Roads, | 4000 crore from railway, | 2000 crore for water projects and | 1500 crore for metros.  At present, HG Infra has bided for ~| 15,000 crore worth of projects spread majorly across roads (HAM _ | 10000 crore and EPC - | 2000 crore), and railways vertical (| 3000 crore). It is witnessing lower competitive intensity for HAMs while it remains high for EPC projects
  • During Q1 FY23, HG Infra had secured sub-contracting job from Adani Road Transport Ltd for Ganga Expressway (Group-II) project (design length: 151.7 km) in the State of Uttar Pradesh on EPC basis. The overall order size stood at | 4,438 crore to be completed in 27 months. The company secured appointed date on 3rd November 2022 and the execution on the project has commenced now. The management expects revenue of | 600 crore; | 22,000 crore during FY23, FY24 respectively with margin hovering at 15%+.
  • HG Infra is in advanced stage of discussions with three potential investors for monetisation of its 4 HAM assets (3 completed: Gurgaon-Sohna, Rewari Ateli Mandi and Narnaul Bypass 1; advanced stage of completion: Rewari Bypass Pkg-4) and expects positive outcome by FY23-end. The total equity invested in these 4 HAM projects stands at | 343 crore. It expects valuations of 1.4x P/B.
  • HG Infra has guided for capex of | 243 crore in FY23 and ~80 crore each for FY24 and FY25. FY23 capex also includes land of | 28 crore and | 25 crore for camp construction

Considering its healthy executable order book position and robust execution skill, we expect execution pace to remain robust in the near-to-medium term. Also, margins are likely to sustain with softened input prices and better project mix. Additionally, strong return ratios, healthy working capital cycle, and lean balance sheet position remains key positive. We maintain BUY rating with a TP of | 915/share (based on SoTP based valuation). We value core business at 10x FY25 P/E and HAM projects at 1x equity invested.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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