loader2
Login Open ICICI 3-in-1 Account
  • CMP : 584.4 Chg : 2.50 (0.43%)
  • Target : 355.0 (25.44%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

28 Jan 2023

High paracetamol sales drive growth; margins stable…

About The Stock

Granules is a large-scale vertically integrated company that manufactures API, intermediates and finished dosages and has seven manufacturing facilities along with B2B & B2C marketing & distribution.

  • Revenue mix Q3FY23: Formulations – 46%, API (API+PFI) – 54%
  • Top five products (Paracetamol, Ibuprofen, Metformin, Methocarbamol, Guaifenesin) contributed 81% to FY22 revenues
Q3FY23 Results

Growth mainly driven by high paracetamol API sales in US market.

  • Sales were up 14.9% YoY to ₹ 1145.6 crore
  • EBITDA margins grew 271 bps YoY to 20.1%. EBITDA grew 32.8% YoY to ₹ 230.8 crore
  • Adjusted PAT grew 22.7% YoY to ₹ 124 crore
What should Investors do?

Granules’ share price has grown at 35% CAGR over the past three years.

We maintain BUY rating on the back of 1) focus on diversification of API portfolio, 2) focus on margin improvement via proposed product mix changes and capex on backward integration, 3) compelling risk-reward matrix based on FY25E earnings

Target Price and Valuation

Valued at ₹ 355 i.e. 12x FY25E EPS of ₹ 29.5

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Ability to pass on input cost inflation and margin improvement through focus on cost management
  • Extending its core products via additional strength/different forms in US, launching in other geographies is likely to provide better operating leverage
  • In the US, it also focuses on select small but high value launches where competition is less, which bodes well in a crowded generics market
  • Timely completion of new block construction in Gagillapur and other expansion activities along with rationalising R&D portfolio
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Granules, in healthcare coverage we like Caplin Point Laboratories.

  • Caplin derives 90% of revenues from Emerging Markets (LatAm + RoW) where it has an end-to-end business model through last mile logistical solutions for its exclusive distributors.
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 955

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-FY25E)
Revenues 2,598.6 3,237.5 3,764.9 21.7 4,489.3 5,136.7 5,797.4 13.6
EBITDA 525.3 853.6 722.2 28.0 929.2 1,039.2 1,230.8 15.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 20.2 26.4 19.2 - 20.7 20.2 21.2 -
Net Profit 309.9 549.5 412.8 32.6 530.2 595.5 731.1 17.4
EPS (Adjusted) 12.4 22.2 16.6 - 21.4 24.0 29.5 -
PE (x) 20.9 12.8 17.0 - 13.2 11.8 9.6 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 14.5 8.9 10.7 - 8.3 7.1 5.6 -
RoCE (%) 15.2 24.0 15.6 - 20.0 20.5 21.9 -
RoE (%) 16.7 25.3 16.0 - 18.7 17.6 17.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY23 Earnings Summary: Robust sales from API pushes performance northwards… 

  • Revenues grew 14.9% YoY to | 1145.6 crore, driven by YoY growth of 31% in API, which was at | 411 crore. Formulations showed an up move of 14% YoY | 552 crore. PFI de grew 6% YoY | 213 crore. EBITDA grew 33% YoY to | 213 crore whereas margins expanded 271 bps YoY to 20.1%. Higher sales of API and lower FD sales in the US, impacted by 3PL partner transition impacted margins. PAT grew 22.7% YoY to | 124 crore during the quarter
  • Granules numbers were more or less in line with expectations but skewed towards APIs on the back of higher than expected Paracetamol sales in the US. Its segment wise contribution was 46% from FD, 35% from API and 19% from PFI during the quarter. The share of Paracetamol in the molecule mix improved from 43% to 49% in Q3FY23 on a YoY basis followed by Metformin, Ibuprofen, Guaifenesin, which contributed 21.2%, 8.9%, 3.9% respectively. The revenue from regulated market came at 73% of total revenues during the quarter. Overall Granules remains a decent player with clear vision to play on its strength of economies of scale and gradual expansion into more complex products/forms to improve margins
Q3FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights:
Business performance: 
  • The overall growth is primarily attributed to increased efforts across geographies, mainly US
  • Other regions suffered a marginal slowdown due to a change of the retail partner, which impacted its FD sales from GPI in the US despite having orders in hand The company faced logistical issues during the period, which caused deferral of a certain amount of sales in the US
  • The management has guided for double digit growth in Paracetamol for the next few years
  • Value addition during Q3FY23 was down 1.3% YoY, primarily on account of higher sales of low margin APIs and lower FD sales, which is a high margin business. Sales were overall impacted by the 3PL partner transition
  • The company intends to mitigate price erosion challenges in its markets by geography expansion and product mix rationalisation
Capex: 
  • It has deployed funds of about | 50 crore in the new expansion plan with green initiatives in Kakinada and | 42.5 crore for land parcel in Visakhapatnam
  • R&D spending will be in the range of | 35 crore to | 40 crore in each quarter, going forward  It spent | 280 crore to | 290 crore on MUPS block
  • It has proposed to set up additional capacities for its products Paracetamol & Metformin to meet more than 50% of the global requirement
Other highlights: 
  • The company has made an arrangement with Greenko for certain chemicals at fixed price contracts with a tenure of about 10 years
  • It plans to use greener chemicals for two products, paracetamol and metformin to begin with and then slowly expand into other products, which it has started working on
  • It intends to manufacture 90% of raw materials in-house at a single site and reduce its dependency on outsourcing unless it is green chemicals
  • The management mentioned that it is facing less supply challenges of PAP lately, and are running at full capacity
  • The company has received approval for uncontrolled substances whose sales are expected to commence shortly. It also expects more approvals in Q4FY23. This is expected to increase its share in new products

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

I/We, Siddhant Khandekar-Inter CA, Kushal Shah-CFA L1, CFP, Utkarsh Jain -MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com. 

ICICI Securities is one of the leading merchant bankers/ underwriters of securities and participate in virtually all securities trading markets in India. We and our associates might have investment banking and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities and its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives are generally prohibited from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. 

Recommendation in reports based on technical and derivative analysis centre on studying charts of a stocks price movement, outstanding positions, trading volume etc as opposed to focusing on a companys fundamentals and, as such, may not match with the recommendation in fundamental reports. Investors may visit icicidirect.com to view the Fundamental and Technical Research Reports. 

Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. 

ICICI Securities Limited has two independent equity research groups: Institutional Research and Retail Research. This report has been prepared by the Retail Research. The views and opinions expressed in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with the views, estimates, rating, and target price of the Institutional Research. 

The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances. 

This report is based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. This report and information herein is solely for informational purpose and shall not be used or considered as an offer document or solicitation of offer to buy or sell or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. ICICI Securities will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. Nothing in this report constitutes investment, legal, accounting and tax advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to your specific circumstances. The securities discussed and opinions expressed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, who must make their own investment decisions, based on their own investment objectives, financial positions and needs of specific recipient. This may not be taken in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment by any recipient. The recipient should independently evaluate the investment risks. The value and return on investment may vary because of changes in interest rates, foreign exchange rates or any other reason. ICICI Securities accepts no liabilities whatsoever for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for services in respect of managing or co-managing public offerings, corporate finance, investment banking or merchant banking, brokerage services or other advisory service in a merger or specific transaction. 

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned in the report in the past twelve months. 

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report. Accordingly, neither ICICI Securities nor Research Analysts and their relatives have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. 

Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. 

ICICI Securities or its subsidiaries collectively or Research Analysts or their relatives do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. 

RATING RATIONALE

ICICI Direct endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its stocks according -to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined as the analysts valuation for a stock

Buy: >15%

Hold: -5%to 15%;

Reduce: -15% to -5%;

Sell: <-15% 

Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

ICICI Direct Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,

Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

 

 

research@icicidirect.com

Read More