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  • CMP : 581.9 Chg : 2.15 (0.37%)
  • Target : 375.0 (23.36%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

12 Aug 2022

Sequential margin improvement continues…

About The Stock

Granules is a large-scale vertically integrated company that manufactures API, intermediates and finished dosages and has seven manufacturing facilities along with B2B & B2C marketing & distribution.
• Revenue mix FY22: Formulations – 52%, API (API+PFI) – 48%
• Top five products (Paracetamol, Ibuprofen, Metformin, Methocarbamol, Guaifenesin) contributed 81% to FY22 revenues

Q1FY23

Granules’ revenue growth in this quarter was mainly driven by volume growth in most markets and also on account of new launches in the US.
• Sales were up 20% YoY to ₹ 1019.6 crore
• EBITDA was at ₹ 211.5 crore, up 5% YoY with margins at 20.7%
• Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 127.6 crore (up 6.1% YoY)

What should Investors do?

Granules’ share price has grown by ~2.8x over the past five years (from ~₹ 109 in August 2017 to ~₹ 304 levels in August 2022).
• We maintain BUY rating as Granules 1) focus on backward integration, 2) initiatives like passing on price hike to customers, 3) compelling risk-reward matrix based on FY24E earnings

Target Price and Valuation

Valued at ₹ 375 i.e. 14x P/E on FY24E EPS of ₹ 26.8

Key Triggers for future price performance

• Ability to pass on input cost inflation and margins improvement through focus on cost management
• Extending its core products via additional strength/different forms in US, launching in other geographies may provide better operating leverage
• In the US, it also focuses on select small but high value launches where competition is less, which bodes well in a crowded generics market
• Timely completion of new block construction in Gagillapur and other expansion activities along with rationalising R&D portfolio

Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Granules, in healthcare coverage we like Laurus.
• Laurus is evolving as a strong vertically integrated player with strong order book visibility and incremental traction from custom synthesis

• BUY with a target price of ₹ 675

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Revenues 2,279.2 2,598.6 3,237.5 3,764.9 21.7 4,363.5 4,954.0 14.7
EBITDA 384.1 525.3 853.6 722.2 19.5 908.7 1,094.6 23.1
EBITDA Margins (%) 16.9 20.2 26.4 19.2 - 20.8 22.1 -
Net Profit 187.7 309.9 549.5 412.8 24.2 543.0 664.9 26.9
EPS (Adjusted) 9.5 12.4 22.2 16.6 - 21.9 26.8 -
PE (x) 31.9 22.5 13.7 18.3 - 13.9 11.3 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 22.0 15.5 9.5 11.4 - 8.8 6.8 -
RoCE (%) 11.8 15.2 24.0 15.6 - 18.6 20.5 -
RoE (%) 15.5 16.7 25.3 16.0 - 17.6 17.9 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q1FY23 Results: Steady quarter amid margin pressure
• Revenues grew 20% YoY to | 1020 crore, driven by YoY growth of 38% in PFI to | 237 crore and 5% growth in API to | 234 crore. Formulations grew 21% YoY to | 549 crore. EBITDA margins fell 296 bps YoY to 20.7% due to lower gross margins (down 459 bps YoY). EBITDA grew 5% YoY to | 211 crore and PAT grew 6% YoY to | 128 crore. The Board of directors has approved a buyback of 60 lakh equity shares at a price of | 400 per equity share for an aggregate maximum amount of | 250 crore
• Granules’ revenue growth in this quarter was in line with our estimate, mainly driven by volume growth in most of the markets and also on account of new launches in the US. EBITDA margins, although better than our estimates, declined due to pricing pressure in US and also increase in cost of KSMs, solvents and increase in logistic cost. Share of non-core molecules increased was at 18% in Q1FY23. Granules has also got approval from the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DOP) under PLI scheme to manufacture Dicyandiamide (DCDA). Granules remains a decent player with clear vision to play on its strength of economies of scale and gradual expansion into more complex products/forms to improve margins


Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights


• The company continues to face price erosion in the US while inflation in raw material and freight cost are declining but are not at pre-Covid level. Availability is not a problem anymore and prices are likely to come down gradually. PAP raw material situation has improved from June, 2022 as a large manufacturer has resumed operations in China and there are two new manufacturers on stream from India. The management has guided for a sequential improvement in EBITDA margins
• In the US, Granules has filed five ANDAs and two USDMFs while two to three launches are pending. Europe is seeing good traction while growth is expected to be largely driven by new launches and partnerships, going forward. For the next two years, the focus market will be Europe, LatAm and South Africa as the US remains challenging
• Granules has commercialised a couple of products from MUPS facility. Few more products are lined up for approval as the company is waiting for regulatory clearance for launches
• The oncology block in Vizag has started delivering on some contracts with one or two products being commercialised. The management expects ramp up from subsequent quarters
• Granules has got approval from Department of Pharmaceuticals (DOP) under PLI scheme to manufacture Dicyandiamide (DCDA). It has guided for capacity to be for internal requirement and will incur capex of | 100 crore. The project is likely to be completed in two years while the company looks to double the capacity if there is international requirement for external sales
• R&D spend in Q1FY23 was at | 32 crore. Granules has established an R&D setup of 150 scientists at Genome valley for both APIs and formulations, with the vision to get into vertically integrated R&D product. R&D efforts are expected to increase, going forward
• The company has acquired capital assets of a small biotech company to gain a ready platform for biotechnology focused research and manufacturing. Granules will be investing | 75 crore in both laboratory pilot scale and fermentation capability. Existing products and new launches are likely to benefit from bio-transformation in line with Granules 2.0 in terms of cost leadership, ESG and foray into product development in enzymes, etc
• The management is focused on better FCF generation and improving net debt position of the company
• Capacity utilisation levels were above 50%

Q1FY23 Results: Steady quarter amid margin pressure

  • Revenues grew 20% YoY to | 1020 crore, driven by YoY growth of 38% in PFI to | 237 crore and 5% growth in API to | 234 crore. Formulations grew 21% YoY to | 549 crore. EBITDA margins fell 296 bps YoY to 20.7% due to lower gross margins (down 459 bps YoY). EBITDA grew 5% YoY to | 211 crore and PAT grew 6% YoY to | 128 crore. The Board of directors has approved a buyback of 60 lakh equity shares at a price of | 400 per equity share for an aggregate maximum amount of | 250 crore

  • Granules’ revenue growth in this quarter was in line with our estimate, mainly driven by volume growth in most of the markets and also on account of new launches in the US. EBITDA margins, although better than our estimates, declined due to pricing pressure in US and also increase in cost of KSMs, solvents and increase in logistic cost. Share of non-core molecules increased was at 18% in Q1FY23. Granules has also got approval from the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DOP) under PLI scheme to manufacture Dicyandiamide (DCDA). Granules remains a decent player with clear vision to play on its strength of economies of scale and gradual expansion into more complex products/forms to improve margins

Q1FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • The company continues to face price erosion in the US while inflation in raw material and freight cost are declining but are not at pre-Covid level. Availability is not a problem anymore and prices are likely to come down gradually. PAP raw material situation has improved from June, 2022 as a large manufacturer has resumed operations in China and there are two new manufacturers on stream from India. The management has guided for a sequential improvement in EBITDA margins

  • In the US, Granules has filed five ANDAs and two USDMFs while two to three launches are pending. Europe is seeing good traction while growth is expected to be largely driven by new launches and partnerships, going forward. For the next two years, the focus market will be Europe, LatAm and South Africa as the US remains challenging

  • Granules has commercialised a couple of products from MUPS facility. Few more products are lined up for approval as the company is waiting for regulatory clearance for launches

  • The oncology block in Vizag has started delivering on some contracts with one or two products being commercialised. The management expects ramp up from subsequent quarters

  • Granules has got approval from Department of Pharmaceuticals (DOP) under PLI scheme to manufacture Dicyandiamide (DCDA). It has guided for capacity to be for internal requirement and will incur capex of | 100 crore. The project is likely to be completed in two years while the company looks to double the capacity if there is international requirement for external sales

  • R&D spend in Q1FY23 was at | 32 crore. Granules has established an R&D setup of 150 scientists at Genome valley for both APIs and formulations, with the vision to get into vertically integrated R&D product. R&D efforts are expected to increase, going forward

  • The company has acquired capital assets of a small biotech company to gain a ready platform for biotechnology focused research and manufacturing. Granules will be investing | 75 crore in both laboratory pilot scale and fermentation capability. Existing products and new launches are likely to benefit from bio-transformation in line with Granules 2.0 in terms of cost leadership, ESG and foray into product development in enzymes, etc

  • The management is focused on better FCF generation and improving net debt position of the company

  • Capacity utilisation levels were above 50%

 

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