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  • CMP : 1,957.1 Chg : 8.70 (0.45%)
  • Target : 460.0 (13.30%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

30 May 2022

Growth (ex-Covid) but US, margins below par…

About The Stock

Glenmark’s business is separated into three entities –

  • Glenmark Pharmaceuticals for building a global generic, specialty and OTC business in therapy areas of dermatology, respiratory, oncology among others
  • Glenmark Life Sciences for manufacturing and marketing APIs
  • Innovation new company (ICHNOS) to focus on discovery and development of novel, first‐in‐class treatments in the therapeutic areas of immunology, oncology and pain encompassing both NBEs as well as NCEs
Q4FY22

Glenmark reported some traction in India (ex-Covid), Europe and RoW but US performance was subdued (both YoY and QoQ and so were margins

  • Sales were up 6% YoY to ₹ 3019 crore
  • EBITDA was at ₹ 463 crore, down 11% YoY with margins at 15.3%
  • Adjusted PAT was at ₹ 238 crore (up 2% YoY) [Note: Profit adjusted for one-time loss of ₹ 82.5 crore due to recall and Monroe facility remediation]
What should Investors do?

Glenmark’s share price has de-grown by ~0.7x over past five years (from ~₹ 623 in May 2017 to ~₹ 406 levels in May 2022).

  • Maintain HOLD as we await EBITDA margin sustainability besides persisting US base business pressure amid regulatory hurdles at Monroe facility. We also monitor future launches
Target Price Valuation

We value Glenmark at ₹460 based on SOTP valuation

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • In the US, regulatory clearance for newly commissioned US based Monroe facility will be the key determinant for future launches
  • Traction for Ryaltris in global markets along with the launch in the US
  • In India, it is the market leader in dermatology and improving its presence in respiratory, CVS, anti-infectives and anti-diabetics, in particular. It has also forayed into consumer health segment focusing on Rx-OTC switch products led by two brands, Candid and Scalpe+
  • Progress on the margins front amid cost rationalisation measures and decline in R&D expenses as percentage of sales
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Glenmark, in healthcare coverage we like Ajanta.

  • Ajanta Pharma is a focused player in branded space with specific strategy for maximum number of first time launches with new drug delivery system.

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1955

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY23E-FY24E)
Revenues 9,865.5 10,641.0 10,943.9 12,304.9 6.0 13,235.9 14,520.4 8.6
EBITDA 1,585.8 1,698.1 2,084.4 2,320.3 2.6 2,448.6 2,741.8 8.7
EBITDA margins (%) 16.1 16.0 19.0 18.9 - 18.5 18.9 -
Adjusted PAT 757.8 743.1 925.5 1,202.6 0.0 1,153.2 1,360.2 6.4
EPS (|) 26.9 26.4 32.9 42.7 - 41.0 48.3 -
PE (x) 14.8 17.6 14.1 12.1 - 9.9 8.4 -
EV to EBITDA (x) 10.5 10.3 8.3 5.9 - 5.4 4.6 -
RoNW (%) 13.5 12.2 13.1 13.2 - 11.4 11.9 -
RoCE (%) 15.3 12.7 13.9 14.8 - 14.5 15.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Steady revenues, margins trending lower

  • Revenues grew 6% YoY to | 3019 crore, driven by 18% YoY growth in Europe to | 497 crore, 7% YoY growth in India to | 885 crore and 18% YoY growth in RoW markets to | 548 crore. This was partially offset by YoY de-growth of 8% in US to | 738 crore. APIs was flat YoY at | 328 crore. EBITDA margins declined 295 bps YoY to 15.3% mainly due to lower gross margins (down 133 bps YoY) and higher other expenditure. EBITDA de-grew 11% YoY to | 463 crore while adjusted PAT grew 2% YoY to | 238 crore. Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA was mainly due to higher other income. [note: Glenmark incurred one-time loss of | 82.5 crore on account of recall of products and remediation cost of Monroe facility]
  • Glenmark’s non-Covid base portfolio grew 15.5% in Q4 while consumer business was led by new product launches like Candid Cream. The company witnessed healthy growth in both its key markets of Western Europe and Central Eastern Europe during the quarter while there was healthy growth in base business across geographies in RoW markets. Glenmark is focused to meet key objectives for FY23 with 6-8% growth, steady EBITDA margins and prioritise free cash generation for further debt reduction.

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • India: Non Covid base portfolio grew 15.5% as compared to the non Covid IPM growth of 10.6% during the quarter. Glenmark’s India business further strengthened its position in its core therapy like Cardiac and Respiratory. The company launched seven new products during the quarter and 31 during FY22. Candid Cream and La Shield delivering robust growth in consumer care business
  • US: Nine ANDAs approvals from USFDA in FY22. The company filed 19 ANDAs in FY22, four from Monroe in FY22 and looks to file 14-15 ANDAs in FY23. Glenmark is witnessing high single digit price erosion in US base business. Monroe facility post product recalls in August, 2021 did not supply in Q3 and Q4. The company is carrying out remediation measures for USFDA observations. The management expects supplies to begin by Q4FY23. Glenmark has invested ~ US$200 million in Monroe facility. The management is guiding for low single digit growth in the US
  • Glenmark Pharma’s Monroe, facility received form 483 with 17 observations from USFDA. Glenmark had done a voluntary recall of all its products from this site in August 2021 and since then has not been commercializing any product from this site. In another development, USFDA also issued form 483 with 5 observations for Glenmark’s Goa facility.
  • RCIS, Asia, LATAM and MEA Region (RoW): In Asia, secondary sales grew 53% YoY during the quarter led by positive momentum in key markets like Vietnam, Malaysia and Philippines. In Russia, as per IQVIA MAT’22, revenues grew 27.6% vis-à-vis 21.6% growth in the overall retail market. MEA region recorded primary sales growth of 13% YoY during the quarter, with positive growth across major MEA markets like Kenya, South Africa and Saudi Arabia. In LatAm while the company recorded positive growth momentum in some markets including Peru, Ecuador and Columbia during the quarter. Overall, the business has been impacted by Brazil where the market remained challenging for the company due to the pandemic
  • Europe: Growth in Western Europe was strong, led by double digit growth in key markets like Netherlands, Spain and Nordic countries. The Central Eastern European region maintained its strong growth trajectory in markets like Poland.

Others: About | 38 crore of Covid related write-off in Q4FY22 while another | 90 crore of Covid products remain in trade channels. The company booked forex gain of | 92 core in Q4FY22.

 

Variance Analysis

  Q4FY22 Q4FY21 Q3FY22 YoY (%) QoQ (%)   Comments
Revenue 3,019.1 2,859.9 3,173.4 5.6 -4.9   YoY growth driven by India, Europe and RoW markets 
Raw Material Expenses 1,030.9 938.4 1,071.9 9.9 -3.8    
Gross Margin (%) 65.9 67.2 66.2 -133 bps -37 bps   YoY impacted amid increase in input cost
Employee Expenses 577.7 537.2 586.0 7.5 -1.4    
Other Expenditure 947.2 860.9 822.4 10.0 15.2   Covid related write-off of | 38 crore in Q4FY22 
EBITDA 463.4 523.4 693.2 -11.5 -33.1    
EBITDA (%) 15.3 18.3 21.8 -295 bps -649 bps   YoY decline due to lower gross margins and higher other expenditure. 
Interest  86.9 83.3 66.7 4.2 30.2    
Depreciation 131.5 111.1 118.9 18.4 10.6    
Other Income 107.2 8.5 13.9 1,162.2 671.5   Forex gain of | 92 crore in Q4FY22
PBT before EO & Forex 352.2 337.5 521.4 4.4 -32.4    
Less: EO & Forex 82.5 0.0 178.4 NA NA   One-time loss of | 82.5 crore on account of recall of products and remediation cost of Monroe facility in Q4FY22
PBT 269.7 337.5 343.0 -20.1 -21.4    
Tax  97.1 103.6 103.3 -6.3 -6.0    
PAT before MI 172.6 233.9 239.8 -26.2 -28.0    
Adj. Net Profit 238.1 234.0 400.3 1.8 -40.5   Delta vis-à-vis EBITDA was mainly due to higher other income
Key Metrics              
US 737.8 801.2 756.7 -7.9 -2.5   High single digit price erosion in US business
Europe 496.8 422.3 380.7 17.6 30.5   YoY growth driven healthy growth in both its key markets of Western Europe and Central Eastern Europe 
India 884.7 823.8 1,006.9 7.4 -12.1   YoY growth with non-Covid base portfolio grew 15.5%
RoW markets 547.9 464.1 534.8 18.1 2.4   YoY growth witnessed due to healthy growth in base business across geographies in RoW markets
API 328.3 331.1 303.2 -0.8 8.3    


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