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  • CMP : 167.6 Chg : -1.52 (-0.90%)
  • Target : 180.0 (20.81%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

02 Jun 2022

In line quarter; gas trading continues to drive earnings

About The Stock

Gail India is a gas utility company with various business segments such as gas transmission & trading, LPG, LLH and petrochemicals.

  • It operates a natural gas pipeline network of 13700 km as of end of FY21
  • Gail also has a presence in CGD sector directly and via associate companies
Q4FY22

Gail’s results were broadly in line with expectations.

  • Revenue was up 73.4% YoY to ₹ 26961.9 crore (estimate:₹ 24391.5 crore)
  • While LPG/LLH performance was weaker than anticipated, other segments- gas trading and petchem reported better than expected profits
  • Subsequently, EBITDA was ₹ 3714.5 crore, up 44.8% YoY (our estimate:₹ 3869.5 crore). Reported PAT was at ₹ 2683.1 crore, up 40.6% YoY (our estimate: ₹ 2761.6 crore)
What should Investors do?

The gas trading outlook remains positive in the near term taking into account current LNG price trend. Transmission volume is also expected to pick up steadily with commissioning of industries/fertiliser plants.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock

Target Price Valuation

We value Gail at ₹ 180/share based on SoTP method

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Gas transmission volume expected to report steady growth, going ahead
  • Gas trading is expected to report healthy gains in the near term due to favourable spot LNG prices
  • LPG & petchem to report stable profitability on account of higher realisation that will be partially offset by higher gas costs
New Stock Ideas

Apart from Gail, in our oil & gas coverage we also like RIL.

  • Reliance Industries (RIL) is a diversified business entity with a presence in energy, retail, digital services and media segments. Consumer business will be a growth driver for RIL while stable cash flow is expected from refining segment that will enable expansion in new energy verticals
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 3050

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22E 5 Year CAGR (FY17-22E) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22E-FY24E)
Revenue (| crore) 75,126.3 71,871.0 56,730.2 91,626.5 13.4 124,402.5 130,862.4 19.5
EBITDA (| crore) 9,528.7 8,369.4 6,445.1 13,829.0 16.6 12,245.7 11,969.0 -7.0
PAT (| crore) 6,025.7 6,620.6 4,890.2 10,286.4 24.0 8,882.8 8,336.3 -10.0
EPS (|) 13.4 14.7 11.0 23.2 - 20.0 18.8 -
PE (x) 11.2 10.2 13.5 6.4 - 7.4 7.9 -
P/Book (x) 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 - 1.1 1.0 -
EV / EBITDA 7.0 8.4 10.9 5.1 - 5.8 6.1 -
ROCE (%) 17.6 13.7 8.7 19.0 - 14.5 12.4 -
ROE (%) 13.7 15.1 10.5 18.5 - 14.5 12.5 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Better realisation drives revenue; transmission volume lower than estimates

  • Revenue was up 4.6% QoQ on account of marginally better realisation across key segments
  • Gas transmission volumes declined 2% YoY, 5.9% QoQ to 107.6 mmscmd, lower than the estimate of 110 mmscmd. Lower volume led to gas transmission EBIT at | 873.3 crore, slightly below our estimate of | 902.2 crore
  • On the gas trading front, volumes were at 94.7 mmscmd, up 3.6% YoY and down 1.9% QoQ, in line with estimate. Gas trading EBIT of | 1725.9 crore was ahead of our estimate of | 1485.3 crore
  • Petchem segment reported volumes at 216 KT, in line with estimate. EBIT was at | 379 crore vs. our estimate of | 325.4 crore, mainly due to lower-than-expected costs. LPG, LLH volumes were at 217 KT. Lower-than-expected volume led to EBIT at | 728.3 crore, below our estimate of | 864.9 crore

 

Q4FY22 Analyst meet highlights

  • Transmission volumes are expected to grow at 8-10% CAGR while gas trading volumes are expected to increase 5-6%. Transmission volume growth is expected to be driven by fertiliser, CGD and refineries
  • Capex in FY22 was | 7700 crore. The company has guided for | 30000 crore capex in the next three years
  • The management said that out of 13 mmscmd import from the US, 9-9.5 mmscmd volume is already tied up
  • Regarding pooled gas for CGD sector, the management said that pricing will be on a monthly basis and the company is trying to source R-LNG and HPHT gas for pooled gas mix
  • The company will set up 1 GW of renewable capacity in the next three years. It is also setting up a 5 tonne CBG plant
 
Variance Analysis
 
  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%)   Comments
Total Revenues 26,961.9 24,391.5 15,546.2 73.4 25,769.8 4.6    
Raw materials costs 21,288.4 18,700.4 11,558.5 84.2 19,766.6 7.7    
Employees Cost 416.1 425.0 336.1 23.8 453.6 -8.3    
Other Expenses 1,542.9 1,396.6 1,086.9 42.0 1,321.4 16.8    
Total Expenditure 23,247.3 20,522.0 12,981.4 79.1 21,541.6 7.9    
EBITDA 3,714.5 3,869.5 2,564.8 44.8 4,228.1 -12.1   Broadly in line with estimates as profitability from gas trading and petrochemicals segment was better-than-expected while profits from LPG/LLH segment were lower than expected
EBITDA margins (%) 13.8 15.9 16.5 -272 bps 16.4 -263 bps    
Depreciation 546.1 501.2 475.8 14.8 532.2 2.6    
EBIT 3,168.5 3,368.3 2,089.0 51.7 3,696.0 -14.3    
Interest 46.1 56.3 45.9 0.5 39.4 17.0    
Other Income 423.5 380.0 568.4 -25.5 651.8 -35.0    
Extra Ordinary Item 0.0 0.0 0.0 NA 0.0 NA    
PBT 3,545.9 3,692.0 2,611.6 35.8 4,308.4 -17.7    
Total Tax 862.8 930.4 703.9 22.6 1,020.4 -15.4    
PAT 2,683.1 2,761.6 1,907.7 40.6 3,288.0 -18.4    
                 
Key Metrics                
Exchange rate (|/$) 75.2 75.2 72.9 3.2 75.0 0.4    
Transmn vol (mmscmd) 107.6 110.0 109.8 -2.0 114.3 -5.9   Volume offtake lower than estimates
Transmn realisation (|/tscm) 1642.3 1575.0 1550.0 6.0 1591.0 3.2    
Trading Vol (mmscmd) 94.7 95.0 91.4 3.6 96.6 -1.9   Above estimates
Trading realisatn($/mmbtu) 9.9 8.7 5.5 79.9 9.1 8.5    
Petchem Vol (000' tonnes) 216.0 215.0 234.0 -7.7 217.0 -0.5    
Petchem realisation(|/tonne) 115849.1 114000.0 94780.3 22.2 110622.1 4.7    
LPG/OLH vol (000' tonnes) 217.0 285.0 257.0 -15.6 275.0 -21.1   Volume lower than expectations
LPG/OLH realisation(|/tonne) 55577.0 55000.0 33659.9 65.1 55738.2 -0.3    

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