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G R Infraprojects Ltd>
  • CMP : 1,321.4 Chg : -3.40 (-0.26%)
  • Target : 1,620.0 (16.55%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

11 Aug 2022

Strong show; poised for better days ahead…

About The Stock

GR Infraprojects Ltd (GRIL) is a leading player in the roads and highways sector having overall order book size of ₹ 17,005.6 crore.

  • The company has delivered 26.6% revenue CAGR during FY16-22, well-complemented by 33.6% EBITDA CAGR and 39% PAT CAGR
  • Prudent management, lean balance sheet position, healthy return ratios
Q1FY23 Results

GRIL reported robust set of numbers during Q1FY23

  • Standalone revenue improved 16.1% YoY to ₹ 2,476.7 crore. On QoQ basis, the company has reported 9.2% growth. Its revenue included ~₹ 132 crore bonus received for early completion of the project
  • EBITDA margin stood at 19.6% (up 345 bps YoY) with better project mix and receipt of early completion bonus. Effectively, EBITDA at ₹ 486.4 crore, was up 40.8% YoY. Excluding early completion bonus, margin was at 15.2%.
  • PAT stood at ₹ 321.1 crore (up 57.7% YoY)
What should Investors do?

GRIL’s share price has de-grown by ~20% over the past one year (from ~₹ 1,730 in July 2021 to ₹ 1,390 levels in August 2022).

  • We assign BUY rating (vs. REDUCE earlier) on the company as asset monetisation through InvIT will boost scalability, ahead
Target Price and Valuation

We value GRIL at a target price of ₹ 1,620

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • GRIL is likely to be one of the major recipients of thriving roads, railways and power transmission segments. Healthy order inflows to aid its order book position.
  • Strong order book position, receipt of appointed date in most of its projects, and execution pick-up to translate into 12.4% topline CAGR over FY22-24E
  • Current order mix with built-in raw material price variation clauses in most of its contracts provides margin sustainability at ~16%
  • Double-digit return ratios, and lean balance sheet position
Alternate Stock Idea

Besides GRIL, we like HG Infra Engineering in Infra space

  • Play on strong execution and lean balance sheet
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 765/share

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 4,950.2 6,027.8 7,244.5 7,919.2 18.0 8,731.8 9,997.5 12.4
EBITDA 1,007.4 1,241.3 1,310.4 1,281.1 19.3 1,417.2 1,609.0 12.1
EBITDA Margin (%) 20.4 20.6 18.1 16.2 - 16.2 16.1 -
Net Profit 595.7 688.7 780.6 760.8 6.0 828.3 941.0 11.2
EPS (|) 61.6 71.2 80.7 78.7 - 85.7 97.3 -
P/E (x) 22.6 19.5 17.2 17.7 - 16.2 14.3 -
Price / Book (x) 6.3 4.8 3.7 3.1 - 2.6 2.2 -
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.8 11.0 10.9 11.2 - 10.3 9.1 -
RoCE (%) 29.9 28.7 24.0 19.7 - 18.8 18.6 -
RoE (%) 27.8 24.4 21.7 17.5 - 16.1 15.6 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key business highlight and outlook

Order book healthy; inflows guidance at ~| 15,000 crore

GRIL’s order book (OB) as on 30th June 2022 stood at | 17,005.7 crore, majorly contributed by Roads- HAM (82%), Roads- EPC (12%), Railways (4%) and Transmission (2%) sector. Additionally, the OB has included the value of one L-1 Project amounting to | 592.1 crore. Considering these, its order book value currently stands healthy at | 17,597.2 crore (2.2x order book to TTM bill). Going forward, the company has guided for overall order inflows of ~| 15,000 crore during FY23, to be driven by a strong order pipeline in roads segment and growing opportunities in the other infrastructure verticals such as metros, ropeways, and power transmission sector. On the execution front, the management has retained their guidance of 5-10% topline growth for FY2            3E (vs 9.3% posted in FY22). Also, its operating margin is likely to sustain at 15-17% going ahead with better product mix.

Lean balance sheet despite equity commitments; monetisation of HAM assets to free capital

GRIL’s balance sheet has remained lean backed by its prudent strategy to mainly focus on an asset light business model and higher focus on cash generation. At the end of Q1 FY23, its gross debt, cash and cash equivalent at the standalone level stood at |1,055 crore, | 295 crore, respectively. The net D/E remained steady at ~0.2x over the past few years. Going forward, it has total equity requirement of | 1,880 crore towards under-execution and L1 projects over the next 2-3 years. Despite these, we expect its debt to remain at comfortable levels with healthy operating cash flow generation arising from improved profitability and, better cash flow management. Also, GRIL maintains optimal mix of interest bearing liabilities (mix of debentures, term loan, working capital loan) aiding towards nominal interest outgo. Further, the company is looking to monetise its HAM portfolio via InvIT, which would free its invested capital.

Key conference call takeaways

  • MoRTH has tendered 969 km during Q1 FY23 (vs 1,681 km in Q1 FY22). Overall, the authority is targeting to award ~330 projects during FY23 valued at | 2.3 lakh crore, providing good visibility and the management expects tendering activity to pick-up considerably during H2 FY23.
  • GRIL had submitted their bid for projects valued at ~| 12,000 crore in the field of roads, power transmission and metros during Q1 FY23. While the company has not tasted any success for submitted bids till now (results declared for projects amounting to | 10,000 crore), it is expecting favourable results in balance tendered projects. Overall, the company has guided for | 15,000 crore of order inflows during FY23 largely targeting from Roads (| 10,000-12,000 crore), and railways, metro, ropeway, and power transmission (| 3,000- 5,000 crore) segments.  Identified pipeline in the power transmission projects stands currently at | 15,000 crore.
  • The management expects competitive intensity to decline ahead as MoRTH/NHAI is gradually removing relaxations provided due to Covid-19 pandemic. This is likely to aid organized road developers in securing more projects at sensible bid project costs.
  • MoRTH/NHAI are contemplating to grant ~20% of the bid project cost during the construction period of HAM projects (against current norm of 40%). While this would require additional investments by private developers, the authority would be able bid out more projects with same capital.
  • Out of its total order book position of | 17,005.7 crore, orders worth ~| 10,000 crore are currently under execution while the company is awaiting appointed date in balance jobs (8 HAM projects having EPC value of ~| 7,000 crore). It expects receipts of appointed date in majority of newly secured HAM projects by FY23-end. This is likely aid overall execution pace ahead.
  • GRIL has recognized one-off income (early completion bonus) amounting to ~| 132 crore during Q1 FY23 for Purvanchal Expressway project. Adjusted to bonus amount, core EBITDA margin stood at 14.3%. The lower-than-normalized level of margin is mainly impacted by a) change in project mix with higher contribution from lower margin EPC projects (63% of the total Q1 FY23 revenues), b) early stage of execution in the newly commenced HAM projects (jobs doesn’t attract high margin in the initial stage), and c) higher raw material prices. Going forward, the management has guided for 15-17% core operating margin (excluding bonuses) in FY23 to be aided by higher contribution from HAM projects and softening in commodity prices.
  • GRIL had secured its maiden power transmission project during FY22 namely “transmission system for evacuation of power from RE projects in Rajgarh (1500 MW) SEZ in Madhya Pradesh”. The work on the project commenced during May’22 (EPC value: | 370 crore) having 18 months of completion period. The management expects margin to be similar with its road EPC projects
  • During the quarter, GRIL informed that a team of Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) conducted a search at the residence of Vinod Kumar Agarwal (Chairman), the corporate office at Gurugram (Haryana) and various other sites. It has been alleged that the NHAI officials have favored GRIL in a road contract located in the north eastern region (executed in 2018) for processing and clearance of final bills, getting bank guarantees and release of discharge certificate. As per the management, the case is still under investigation wherein the company is supporting CBI’s team with relevant information/documents. It expects to come clean out of the investigation
  • Bharat Highways lnvIT, sponsored by GRIL, has recently granted Certificate of Registration by SEBI as an Infrastructure Investment Trust. With this, the company is looking to monetise its 6 operational NHAI’s HAM projects during initial launch stage (equity investment: ~| 900 crore), which would free its invested capital going forward. The company is targeting to launch InVIT by FY23-end.
  • Total Investment (including loans and advances) at the end of Q1 FY23 stood at | 1,545 crore. Going forward, it has total equity requirement of | 1,880 crore (| 200 crore infused during Q1 FY23; | 500 crore, | 700 crore, | 700 crore during rest-FY23, FY24 and FY25) towards already secured HAM and power transmission projects.
  • Net working capital at the end of Q1 FY23 stood healthy at 77 days (receivable: 28 days; inventory+WIP: 84 days; payable: 35 days) as compared to 72 days at FY22-end. It expects working capital to hover in the similar range.
  • GRIL has incurred capex to the tune of | 145 crore during Q1 FY23 and has guided for overall ~| 300-400 crore of capex during FY23 required to be spent for newer projects and jobs in newer targeting segments.

GRIL has built an efficient business model powered by robust execution skills and delivered strong revenue growth with elevated margins. While outcome of CBI’s investigation to remain key overhang on stock price in the near term, its outlook fundamentally remains bright with decent order book position, healthy revenue visibility, lean balance sheet structure, comfortable working capital cycle and strong return ratios. Additionally, better-than-expected order inflows and monetisation of HAM assets can act as a positive trigger. Any positive development on ABI investigation would also be key monitorable. We upgrade our rating from REDUCE to BUY with a TP of | 1,620/share (based on SoTP based valuation). We value core business at 15x FY24 P/E and HAM projects at 1x equity invested.

Disclaimer

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

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