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Firstsource Solutions Ltd>
  • CMP : 192.3 Chg : -5.25 (-2.66%)
  • Target : 105.0 (9.48%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

04 Jan 2023

Weak performance continues; some recovery in Q4…

About The Stock

Firstsource Solutions (FSL) provides business process services to BFSI, communication, media, tech and healthcare.

  • The company generates 70% revenues from the US and 27% from the UK
  • FSL is a domain driven BPM company, which has 150+ clients, including 17 Fortune 500 companies and nine FTSE 100 companies. The company has 23,627 employees across the US, UK, India and Philippines
Q3FY23 Results

FSL reported weak numbers in Q3FY23.

  • Revenue declined 0.9% QoQ in CC terms & 2.1% in dollar terms
  • EBIT margins improved ~100 bps QoQ to 9.4%
  • Revenue guidance revised to -2% to -1% in CC for FY23
What should Investors do?

FSL’s share price has grown by ~2.7x in the past five years (from ~₹ 41 in February 2018 to ~₹ 116 levels in February 2023).

  • We maintain our REDUCE rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value FSL at ₹ 105 i.e. 12x P/E on FY25E.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Recovery in refinancing and collections volumes, which has been a weak link in the performance. We expect rupee revenues to increase at a CAGR of 4.6% in FY22-25E
  • Inorganic opportunities in adjacent capabilities may help to address the growth concerns
  • Margin recovery due to cost rationalisation programmes. We are currently estimating EBIT margins of 11.4% for FY25E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from FSL, in our IT coverage we also like Persistent.

  • Consistent growth aided by continued strong TCV and inorganic opportunities
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 4,920

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 Year CAGR(FY17-FY22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 Year CAGR (FY22-FY25E)
Net Sales 4,098.6 5,078.0 5,921.1 10.7 6,032.3 6,331.2 6,775.0 4.6
EBITDA 628.9 799.0 959.8 17.0 826.4 949.7 1,050.1 3.0
Margins (%) 15.3 15.7 16.2 - 13.7 15.0 15.5 -
Net Profit 339.7 361.7 537.3 13.9 432.7 531.3 604.6 4.0
EPS (|) 4.9 5.2 7.7 - 6.2 7.7 8.7 -
P/E 23.7 22.2 15.0 - 18.6 15.2 13.3 -
RoNW (%) 12.3 12.9 17.7 - 13.5 15.6 16.6 -
RoCE (%) 11.1 15.4 14.5 - 12.0 14.0 14.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • The company reported a revenue of US$183 mn, down 2.1% QoQ while in CC terms revenue declined 0.3%. In rupee terms, FSL reported a revenue of |1,504.9 crore, up 1.1% QoQ. The company indicated that the organic business excluding mortgage & acquisitions grew 18.6% YoY in CC terms. FSL indicated that slowdown in mortgage business, slower rampup in the collections business & slower decision making in healthcare deals impacted the revenue growth of the company
  • Guidance: The company indicated that due to impact of changes in the macro environment on the company’s core & acquired business led to the constant changes in the guidance numbers for the year. FSL is now guiding for CC revenue growth of -2% to -1% for FY23 and excluding mortgage business & acquisitions it is guiding for a revenue growth of 12.5-14.5% for the year. For the whole year, the company is guiding operating margin band of 9.25-9.5%
  • For Q4 the company is guiding for revenue growth in the range of 1-5% & aspiring exit operating margin band of 11.5-12%. FSL further indicated that this band will be the new base for FY24 margins and the levers for margin improvement in Q4 are increase in revenue & the continuance of cost rationalisation programs
  • Geography wise, US (65% mix) declined 5.5% QoQ while UK (34% mix) reported strong growth of 6.6% QoQ. Vertical wise in CC terms BFS (42% of mix) declined 14.1% YoY and excluding mortgage & acquisitions BFS grew 30% YoY. Health care & CMT reported growth of 7.2% & 17.5% YoY in CC terms
  • EBIT margin of the company increased ~100 bps QoQ to 9.4% as it continues its cost rationalisation activities. FSL also indicated that some expenses during the quarter were also attributed to lower revenue generated during the quarter. The company indicated that cost rationalisation led savings i.e. 70% mix, are sustainable while 30% savings may be come up again in subsequent quarters as they are linked to revenue growth
  • The company, during the quarter reported PAT of | 157.9 crore, up 22% QoQ with other income of | 62.5 crore. FSL mentioned that the other income was high due to reversal of the provision of | 27.9 crore towards variable pay out for acquired companies as they did not meet the revenue target (due to adverse market conditions). The company also indicated that other income also included an amount of | 31.9 crore from a mortgage contract as it had contingent pay out clause and based on recent revaluation of revenues it generated other income
  • On the BFS front, mortgage business continues to be under pressure due to macro environments. The company indicated that the mortgage business declined 20% QoQ in Q3 & contributed ~10% of Q3 revenues and the company further expects the revenue contribution to decline to 8-8.5% in Q4FY23. The company indicated that interest rate may likely slow down its pace and bring in some volume back in this business
  • The company further mentioned that the mix between origination & servicing was at 35/65 and now it is also witnessing pressure in the servicing side as well. FSL further indicated that it expects that as home purchase volumes picks up it will see some uptick in the originating business but not in the refinance business. The company also said that though servicing business is now witnessing pressure it does not expect additional adverse impact as it is already down to 8-9% of overall revenues

 

 

  • In the collections business the company indicated that ramp up in volumes is not at the expected levels despite high inflation & high interest rates due to low unemployment rate & strong US household balance sheet. The company indicated that delinquencies grew steadily to 2.08 in Q3 from 1.85 in Q2FY23. FSL, however, indicated that it expects a strong Q4 in collections business. The company also indicated that legal collection business is still impacted by Covid lag but mentioned that legal delinquencies are rising. FSL further mentioned that clients are planning for capacity due to possible stability in rates, which is likely building up strong deal pipeline across diversified industry verticals. FSL during the quarter added seven new clients
  • In the UK, in BFS segment the company indicated that its increased focus to grow business in the region is bearing results. FSL further indicated that the demand & adoption of digital remains strong despite political & macro uncertainty. The company expects Europe region to steadily grow not only in Q4 but also in next fiscal year
  • The company indicated that Healthcare segment grew 7.2% YoY in CC terms. FSL indicated that its strategy to focus on top clients is leading to growth in the vertical. The company indicated though the growth has slowed down due to delayed decision making, the pipeline remains strong. FSL further indicated that growth in the vertical will be driven by increased digital adoption, increased BpaaS adoption & vendor consolidation. The company also mentioned that the slowdown in the vertical is due to longer evaluation process by the clients and longer implementation process in case the switching of vendors in vendor consolidation deals
  • In CMT vertical, the company indicated that it witnessing steady growth in clients. FSL indicated that the US region CMT vertical performance is growing strongly. The company added that US CMT grew 63.8% YoY in CC terms and it expects it to grow strongly, going forward. The company added four new clients during the quarter including two major tech companies
  • The company’s net employees declined by 305 bringing the total employees to 23,627. FSL’s onshore attrition declined 480 bps to 47.2% while its offshore attrition declined 130 bps 44.4%
  • The company indicated that the growth in the medium term will be driven by: a) growing by building adjacent vertical capabilities, acquiring new clients & growing strategic account, b) diversifying its BFS business & continue to grow its Health & CMT verticals to make the company’s business less cyclical
  • On the M&A front the company mentioned that the acquisitions of Stonehill and ARSI did not fare as per expectations as the impact of macro headwinds was more severe on their businesses
  • The company declared an interim dividend of | 3.5 per share
 
Variance Analysis
 
 | crore   Q3FY23   Q3FY22   YoY (%)   Q2FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 1,504.9 1,463.8 2.8 1,488.2 1.1 Revenue degrew by 0.9% QoQ in CC terms & 2.1% QoQ in dollar terms due to the continous pressure in mortgage business & slower than expected ramp up in collections business
Employee expenses 986.1 967.6 2.1 952.7 3.9  
             
Gross Margin 518.9 496.2 4.6 535.6 -3.1  
Gross margin (%) 34.5 33.9 58 bps 36.0 -151 bps  
SG&A expenses 309.2 258.3 19.7 343.8 -10.1  
             
EBITDA 209.7 237.9 -11.9 191.7 9.4  
EBITDA Margin (%) 13.9 16.3 -232 bps 12.9 105 bps  
Depreciation & amortisation 68.7 61.7 11.4 66.3 3.7  
EBIT 140.9 176.2 -20.0 125.4 12.4  
EBIT Margin (%) 9.4 12.0 -267 bps 8.4 94 bps Margins continue to improve due to cost rationalisation activities
Other income (less interest) 42.7 -14.8 -388.6 29.5 44.9 Other income includes reversal of provsion of |27.9 crore towards variable payout & revalution of contingent liability of |31.9 crore
PBT 183.7 161.4 13.8 154.9 18.6  
Tax paid 25.7 25.9 -0.6 25.5 0.9  
PAT 157.9 135.5 16.5 129.4 22.0  

Disclaimer

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pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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