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Firstsource Solutions Ltd>
  • CMP : 197.9 Chg : -1.40 (-0.70%)
  • Target : 93.0 (9.71%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

04 Nov 2022

Revenue, margin guidance revised further downward

About The Stock

Firstsource Solutions (FSL) provides business process services to BFSI, communication, media, tech and healthcare.

  • The company generates 70% revenues from the US and 27% from the UK
  • FSL is a domain driven BPM company, which has 150+ clients, including 17 Fortune 500 companies and nine FTSE 100 companies. The company has 23,932 employees across the US, UK, India and Philippines
Q2FY23 Results:

FSL reported weak numbers.

  • US$ revenues fell 2.1% QoQ in dollar terms and were up 0.2% in CC terms
  • EBIT margins improved ~50 bps QoQ to 8.4%
  • Revenue guidance revised downward to -2 to 0% in CC for FY23
What should Investors do?

FSL’s share price has grown by ~2.5x in the past five years (from ~₹ 42 in November 2017 to ~₹ 103 levels in November 2022).

  • We maintain our REDUCE rating on the stock
Target Price and Valuation

We value FSL at ₹ 93 i.e. 11x P/E on FY25E.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Recovery in refinancing and collections volumes, which has been a weak link in the performance. We expect dollar revenues to increase at a CAGR of 3.1% in FY22-25E
  • Inorganic opportunities in adjacent capabilities may help to address the growth concerns
  • Margin recovery due to cost rationalisation programmes. We are currently estimating EBIT margins to decline by 60 bps over FY22-25E
Alternate Stock Idea:

Apart from FSL, in our IT coverage we also like Persistent.

  • Consistent growth aided by continued strong TCV and inorganic opportunities
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 4,370

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E FY25E 3 year CAGR (FY22-25E)
Net Sales 4,098.6 5,078.0 5,921.1 10.7 6,006.9 6,245.0 6,651.8 4.0
EBITDA 628.9 799.0 959.8 17.0 804.9 843.1 1,031.0 2.4
Margins (%) 15.3 15.7 16.2 - 13.4 13.5 15.5 -
Net Profit 339.7 361.7 537.3 13.9 408.2 451.8 588.8 3.1
EPS (|) 4.9 5.2 7.7 - 5.9 6.5 8.5 -
P/E 21.0 19.7 13.3 - 17.5 15.8 12.1 -
RoNW (%) 12.3 12.9 17.7 - 12.8 13.4 16.4 -
RoCE (%) 11.1 15.4 14.5 - 11.8 12.5 15.4 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • FSL reported revenue of US$187 mn for the quarter, down 2.1% QoQ while in CC terms it was up 0.2% QoQ. In rupee terms, the company reported revenue of | 1,488.2 crore up 1.1% QoQ. Organic growth excluding BFS decline was up 12.8% YoY. The company indicated that the overall market scenario has worsened with continued rise in interest rate impacting the business adversely. Due to this, FSL is now lowering its guidance to -2 to 0% in CC terms from the earlier 2-4% for FY23. The company indicated that the guidance revision is due to added pressure in mortgage business, slower than anticipated growth in delinquencies impacting collection business and some deal delay in healthcare business
  • Geography wise, US (67% mix) declined 3.8% QoQ while UK (31% mix) grew 1.8% QoQ. In CC terms, vertical wise BFSI (43% mix) declined 10.2% YoY while healthcare and communications, media & tech (CMT) grew 12.9% & 14.2% YoY, respectively
  • EBIT margin of the company increased ~50 bps QoQ to 8.4%. FSL indicated that margins improved due to its vigorous cost rationalisation activities wherein employee cost reduced 80 bps QoQ. The company indicated that margins will be impacted due to macroeconomic headwinds and it is now reducing the margin guidance for FY23 to 9-9.5% from 10-10.5% given earlier
  • On the BFS front, mortgage (revenue of US$25 mn in Q2, ~13% of revenue mix) was impacted due to continued higher interest rate, sharp downward movement in home sales and collapse of the refinance market. The company indicated that high interest rate had led to a decline of 86% in refinance volume and 42% decline in purchase volume resulting in 55% decline in mortgage business in FY23, implying headwinds of 15% to overall business. The company indicated that it had expected the mortgage business to bottom out in Q2 but has now indicated that the mortgage business will be impacted for a few more quarters. FSL also indicated that client additions are healthy with the addition of 12 new clients in mortgage business but volume generation is low from existing as well as new clients. The company further indicated that Stonehill (acquisition company) was impacted by macro headwinds. It is expecting 25-35% erosion in its business since acquisition
  • In the collections business, the company indicated that it is witnessing a unique economic situation wherein delinquencies are slower despite rising interest rates. The company indicated that it could be due to lower unemployment rates and a strong household balance sheet in the US witnessed in the last 40 years. FSL, however, expects delinquencies to rise in coming quarters as the total outstanding credit card revolving debt hit a high of US$1.15 trillion, up 15% YoY. The company further indicated that delinquencies in Q2 were 1.81% compared to 1.66% in Q1. FSL, during the quarter, added nine new clients. The company further indicated that it is diversifying its collection business by moving towards fintech companies but also mentioned that the business with fintech are of smaller ticket size and will take some time to ramp up the business
  • In the UK, BFS the company indicated that growth is strong with 11.9% YoY growth across mortgage & customer experience. FSL further indicated that demand and pipeline remains strong despite political uncertainties and high inflation. However, it mentioned that high inflation and high talent cost is putting pressure on the company on fulfilment and ramp up of onshore work. The company won two notable wins here. One was with international fintech for automation of its lead generation, third party referral, KYC and payment screening and sanction screening processes; while the other was with a Neo bank, which selected FSL as its operations partner to deliver customer experience
  • In the healthcare vertical, the company indicated that it witnessed some weakness in provider business, which was offset by strong growth in HPHS business. The company indicated that it has made inroads in eight of the top 10 healthcare clients but is witnessing some delay in large deals due to rigorous renewal process leading to delayed decision making
  • In CMT vertical, the company indicated that growth across top clients was steady. It expects a ramp up in demand. The company expects strong growth in CMT vertical next year as clients are inclined towards increased off shoring to India, Philippines & Mexico due to onshore talent headwinds. FSL indicated that it won a few marquee wins in the last few quarters and is witnessing traction in the US and UK CMT market. The company indicated that tech vertical will be the growth driver for it in short to medium term
  • The company’s offshore headcount declined by 1,338 while onshore headcount increased marginally by 36 taking the total net decline to 1,302 during the quarter. FSL further indicated that the offshore attrition increased by 190 bps to 45.7% while onshore attrition declined 490 bps to 52%. The company indicated that attrition is expected to remain in a similar range in H2 also
  • On the future outlook the company indicated that its investment in HPHS is now bearing results and to supplement the mortgage & collection business it will invest in the following adjacent verticals to drive the next phase of growth:

a)      Moving to other consumer lender products and broaden retail & SME banking by leveraging its expertise in mortgage, collections & UK BFS segments

b)     Explore select additional verticals in CMT segment of digital media & edtech space

c)     Diversify collections by exploring the fintech, utilities & communications through digital collections platforms

 

Variance Analysis

 

 | crore   Q2FY23   Q2FY22   YoY (%)   Q1FY23   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 1,488.2 1,428.6 4.2 1,472.4 1.1 Mortgage business detoriates further. Also, collections business has not ramped up at expected levels leading to impact on revenue growth
Employee expenses 952.7 972.8 -2.3 959.7 -0.8  
             
Gross Margin 535.6 455.8 17.5 512.6 4.5  
Gross margin (%) 36.0 31.9 408 bps 34.8 117 bps  
SG&A expenses 343.8 217.1 58.4 331.6 3.7  
             
EBITDA 191.7 238.7 -19.7 181.0 5.9  
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.9 16.7 -383 bps 12.3 59 bps  
Depreciation & amortisation 66.3 59.7 11.0 63.9 3.7  
EBIT 125.4 179.0 -29.9 117.1 7.1  
EBIT Margin (%) 8.4 12.5 -410 bps 8.0 48 bps Margins improved due to cost rationalisation activities
Other income (less interest) 29.5 -14.8 -299.2 -12.3 -339.4 Other income includes onetime adjustments of fair value liability for contingent considerations
PBT 154.9 164.2 -5.6 104.8 47.9  
Tax paid 25.5 29.3 -12.9 19.7 29.8  
PAT 129.4 134.9 -4.1 85.1 52.1  

Disclaimer

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Pankaj Pandey

Head – Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

 

 

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