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  • CMP : 343.2 Chg : 2.45 (0.72%)
  • Target : 95.0 (9.52%)
  • Target Period : 12 Month

05 Aug 2022

Weak performance; guidance revised downward…

About The Stock

Firstsource Solutions (FSL) provides business process services to BFSI, communication, media, tech and healthcare.

  • The company generates 70% revenues from the US and 27% from the UK
  • FSL is a domain driven BPM company, which has 150+ clients, including 17 Fortune 500 companies and nine FTSE 100 companies. The company has 26,557 employees across the US, UK, India and Philippines
Q1FY23 Results

FSL reported weak numbers.

  • US$ revenues declined 5.1% QoQ in CC terms and 7.1% in dollar terms
  • EBIT declined ~340 bps QoQ to 8%
  • Revenue guidance revised downward to 2-4% in CC for FY23
What should Investors do?

FSL’s share price has grown by ~3.1x over the past five years (from ~₹ 34 in August 2017 to ~₹ 105 levels in August 2022).

  • We change our rating from HOLD to REDUCE
Target Price and Valuation

We value FSL at ₹ 95 i.e. 12x P/E on FY24E.

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Recovery in refinancing and collections volumes, which has been a weak link in the performance. We expect dollar revenues to increase at a CAGR of 4.4% in FY22-24E
  • Inorganic opportunities in adjacent capabilities may help to address the growth concerns
  • Margin recovery due to cost rationalisation programmes. We expect EBIT margins to decline 130 bps in FY22-24E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from FSL, in our IT coverage we also like Persistent.

  • Consistent growth aided by continued strong TCV and inorganic opportunities
  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 4,200

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR (FY22-FY24E)
Net Sales 3,826.3 4,098.6 5,078.0 5,921.1 10.7 6,156.3 6,644.4 5.9
EBITDA 535.5 628.9 799.0 959.8 17.0 892.7 983.4 1.2
Margins (%) 14.0 15.3 15.7 16.2 - 14.5 14.8 -
Net Profit 377.9 339.7 361.7 537.3 13.9 473.1 550.9 1.3
EPS (|) 5.4 4.9 5.2 7.7 - 6.8 7.9 -
P/E 19.3 21.4 20.1 13.6 - 15.4 13.2 -
RoNW (%) 13.9 12.3 12.9 17.7 - 14.7 16.1 -
RoCE (%) 14.0 11.1 15.4 14.5 - 13.5 14.9 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

  • FSL reported revenue of US$191 mn for the quarter, down 7.1% QoQ while in CC terms it reported a decline of 5.1% QoQ. In rupee terms the company reported revenue of | 1,472.4 crore down by 4.6% QoQ. The revenue decline was due to worsening of macros impacting mortgage business. FSL has revised downward revenue guidance to 2-4% in CC in FY23 vs. 7-8% given earlier. It also revised downward revenue growth guidance ex mortgage and acquisitions to 16-19% now from 18-22% given earlier. The company indicated that delinquency rate in the US is gradually moving and now they are at 1.7 vs 1.54 in Q3FY22. Hence, recovery in collections business has been slower than expectations. On origination side. HPHS continues to perform strongly due to robust deal pipeline from large health plans. Healthcare added five new clients across revenue cycle management and integrated care services in Q1
  • Geography wise, US (68% mix) declined 10.1% QoQ while UK (30% mix) grew 1.7% QoQ. Vertical wise BFSI (46% mix) declined 12.2% QoQ. Healthcare and communications, media & tech (CMT) reported decline of 1.5% & 1.2% QoQ, respectively
  • The company earlier guided for mortgage business annual revenue to be in the range of US$125-135 mn for FY23. The quarterly revenue run rate has come down from US$45-47 mn in Q4FY22 to US$32 mn in Q1FY23. FSL expects further weakness in this business in Q2 and expects it to be around US$25 mn. It indicated that this business is expected to witness recovery only from Q4 onwards. The company indicated it is looking to re-align manpower costs in mortgage business in proportion to the slowing demand as the company of the opinion that it did aggressive hiring in the earlier quarters
  • The company indicated that it is planning to continue its investments in healthcare & CMT verticals to cater to the ongoing demand. FSL expects demand to pick up in HPHS business from Q2 onwards. The company indicated that it is witnessing increased demand in healthcare vertical in UK region but supply side challenges persists in the region
  • EBIT margin of the company declined ~340 bps QoQ to 8%. The decline was due to rise in SG&A expenses by 5.4% QoQ. The company also indicated that it has changed its accounting policy, which will have an impact of 80-90 bps on margins for FY23. FSL indicated that margins will improve from Q2 onwards and expects cost rationalisation initiatives to start benefiting from Q2 onwards. The company indicated that margin will be back to 11.5-12% by Q4 and expects margins for FY23 to be in the range of 10-10.5%
  • FSL opened new satellite centre in Mexico and will open a new centre in Philippines
  • The company indicated that it is facing supply side challenges in the US and UK. FSL’s on-shore attrition increased 570 bps to 56.9% while its offshore attrition declined 210 bps to 43.8%. The employee count has reduced by 1,323 bringing its total headcount to 25,234
  • The company indicated that it is currently focusing on smooth integration of the recent acquisition and synergy benefits thereafter. At this point of time, it is not looking for any further inorganic opportunities
  • The company indicated that its outcome based projects have price hike clause in the agreement and, hence, was able to take price hike in couple of projects due to rise in costs
  • The company reported a tax rate of 18.8% for Q1FY23 and has guided the tax rate to be in the range of 18-20% for FY23
 
Variance Analysis
 
   Q1FY23   Q1FY22   YoY (%)   Q4FY22   QoQ (%)  Comments
Revenue 1,472.4 1,484.8 -0.8 1,543.9 -4.6 Comtinued pressure on mortgage business impacting revenues
Employee expenses 959.7 1,021.9 -6.7 984.5 -2.8  
             
Gross Margin 512.6 462.9 10.7 559.4 -8.4  
Gross margin (%) 34.8 31.2 364 bps 36.2 -142 bps  
SG&A expenses 331.6 224.6 47.7 314.6 5.4  
             
EBITDA 181.0 238.3 -24.1 244.8 -26.1  
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.3 16.1 -376 bps 15.9 -357 bps Margins impacted by increase in SG&A expenses and manpower expenses
Depreciation & amortisation 63.9 58.4 9.5 69.7 -8.3  
EBIT 117.1 180.0 -34.9 175.1 -33.2  
EBIT Margin (%) 8.0 12.1 -417 bps 11.3 -339 bps  
Other income (less interest) -18.7 -14.6 28.3 -18.8 -0.5  
PBT 98.4 165.4 -40.5 156.4 -37.1  
Tax paid 19.7 31.7 -38.0 23.6 -16.7  
PAT 85.1 134.5 -36.7 132.4 -35.7  

Disclaimer

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