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  • CMP : 268.0 Chg : 2.55 (0.96%)
  • Target : 100.0 (9.89%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

08 May 2022

Mixed quarter; growth momentum key for re-rating

About The Stock

Federal Bank is an old private sector bank based out of Kerala with 1282 branches and 1885 ATM across various states.

  • Strong liability franchisee with over 94% of total deposits being retail
  • Balanced loan mix with retail: wholesale mix of 55:45
Q4FY22

Q4FY22 Results: Subdued operational performance, lower provisions aided PAT.

  • Loans up 9.9% YoY, 3% QoQ at ₹ 1.4 lakh crore, deposits up 5.2% YoY
  • NII up 7.4% YoY, flat QoQ. NIMs declined 11 bps QoQ at 3.16%
  • GNPA down 26 bps QoQ to 2.8%. Restructured book at ~2.36%
What should Investors do?

Federal Bank’s share price has increased by ~15% in the past one year.

  • Targeted business growth of ~15% and RoA of 1.1% in FY23E remains key. However, rising competitive intensity remains a challenge. Thus, we downgrade the stock from BUY to HOLD.
Target Price Valuation

We value Federal Bank at ~1.1x FY24E ABV and revise our target price from ₹ 120 to ₹ 100 per share

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Management guidance on pedalling growth with focus on retail & business banking to aid earnings trajectory though liabilities accumulation without distorting margins will remain key
  • Digital & fintech push through partnerships to aid business growth
  • RoA guidance at 1.2-1.25% needs to be watched given steady margins & high anticipated opex
New Stock Ideas

Besides Federal, in our coverage we also like IndusInd Bank.

  • IndusInd Bank is a Hinduja group promoted newer age private sector bank and is the fifth largest private bank in India
  • BUY with target a price of ₹ 1150

Key Financial Summary

| crore FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 3 Year CAGR
(FY19-FY22)
FY23E FY24E 2 Year CAGR   (FY22-24E)
NII          4,176            4,649          5,534                    5,962 13%        6,893         8,036 16%
PPP          2,763            3,205          3,787                    3,758 11%        4,439         5,248 18%
PAT          1,244            1,543          1,590                    1,890 15%        2,215         2,707 20%
ABV (|) 58.6 64.8 72.9 81.5   84.5 94.5  
P/E 14.5 11.7 11.4 10.1   8.6 7.0  
P/ABV 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1   1.1 1.0  
RoE (%) 9.8 11.1 10.4 10.8   11.6 13.1  
RoA (%)             0.8               0.9             0.8                        0.9              1.0            1.0  

 

Variance Analysis - 

  Q4FY22 Q4FY22E Q4FY21 YoY (%) Q3FY22 QoQ (%) Comments
NII 1,525 1,590 1,420 7.4 1,539 -0.9 Sequential weak topline due to reduced margins 
NIM (%) 3.16 3.35 3.23 -7 bps 3.27 -11 bps  
Other Income 465 516 465 -0.1 484 -4.0  
               
Net Total Income 1,990 2,106 1,886 5.5 2,023 -1.6  
Staff cost 637 612 525 21.3 583 9.3  
Other Operating Expenses 555 605 475 16.7 526 5.5 Higher spends on digital initiatives 
               
PPP 798 889 885 -9.8 914 -12.7  
Provision 75 220 242 -69.0 214 -64.8 Decline sequentially due to better recoveries
PBT 723 670 643 12.5 700 3.2  
Tax Outgo 182 171 165 10.6 179 2.2  
PAT 541 499 478 13.1 522 3.6 Lower credit costs aided PAT
               
Key Metrics              
GNPA 4,137 4,357 4,602 -10.1 4,401 -6.0 Slippages were lower sequentially
NNPA 1,393 1,442 1,569 -11.3 1,471 -5.3  
Advances 1,44,928 1,40,565 1,31,879 9.9 1,40,743 3.0 Loan growth driven by agri, corporate loans
Deposit 1,81,701 1,75,432 1,72,644 5.2 1,75,432 3.6 CASA up 15% YoY

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