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  • CMP : 366.3 Chg : -6.20 (-1.66%)
  • Target : 155.0 (12.32%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

26 May 2022

Stepping up commitment towards Li-on space…

About The Stock

Exide Industries (EIL) is a part of the duopolistic organised Indian lead acid battery market with a presence across automotive & industrial applications.

  • Segment mix: -automotive sales~75% & industrial application ~25%
  • Channel exposure to replacement, OEMs is at ~60%, ~40%, respectively
  • Within its automobile segment sales, it derives ~60% of sales from OEMs
Q4FY22

The company reported a muted performance in Q4FY22.

  • Total operating income for Q4FY22 came in at ₹ 3,408 crore, up 6.6% QoQ
  • EBITDA came in at ₹ 349 crore with margins at 10.2%, down 150 bps QoQ.
  • PBT in Q4FY22 was at ₹ 271 crore, flat QoQ, aided by higher other income
What should Investors do?

EIL’s share price has declined at ~10.2% CAGR from ~₹ 244 in May 2017, thereby vastly underperforming Nifty Auto index in that time.

  • We retain HOLD tracking changing technology landscape in battery space and long gestation period of greenfield expansion in Li-On cell domain
Target Price Valuation

We value EIL at revised SOTP-based TP of ₹ 155 (₹ 108 for battery business at 10x FYFY24E EPS, ₹ 47 for investments).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Sizable investment confirmed in Li-On battery domain (cell manufacturing)
  • Given widespread electrification thrust and muted OEM sales in 2-W space, we build 10.5% sales CAGR over FY22-24E
  • With elevated commodity cost and limited operating leverage, we expect EBITDA margins to stabilise at ~11.5% mark, going forward, in FY23E-24E
  • With HDFC Life stake clubbed under long term investments headline RoE, RoCE to remain muted but core RoIC well above 25% over FY23E-24E
New Stock Ideas

Leaving aside EIL, in our OEM coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,045

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22-24E)
Net Sales 10,588.3 9,856.7 10,040.8 12,381.7 10.2 14,207.1 15,122.1 10.5
EBITDA 1,406.9 1,365.0 1,355.6 1,395.6 5.2 1,561.0 1,731.8 11.4
EBITDA Margins (%) 13.3 13.8 13.5 11.3 - 11.0 11.5 -
Net Profit 839.7 825.5 758.2 4,683.5
EPS (₹) 9.9 9.7 8.9 55.1 - 10.0 10.8 -
Adjusted Net Profit 766.0 842.8 758.2 839.4 3.9 846.1 918.6 4.6
Adjusted EPS (₹) 9.0 9.9 8.9 9.9 3.9 10.0 10.8 4.6
P/E 14.0 14.2 15.5 2.5 - 13.9 12.8 -
RoNW (%) 12.8 13.4 11.0 7.9 - 7.5 7.7 -
RoCE (%) 17.8 15.7 14.0 9.3 - 9.7 10.3 -
RoIC (%) 19.6 16.9 16.8 24.0 - 25.1 27.7 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of the recent quarter & Concall highlights

Key conference call highlights

  • Nexcharge facility has been operationalised a couple of weeks ago and has an order book of ~| 260 crore. Currently, the company imports Li-on cells and assembles using fully automated air conditioned facility
  • The company plans to invest ~| 6,000 crore in lithium ion cell manufacturing with estimated capacity of 12 GWh in the coming seven to eight years. This would be done in two phases with phase one capex planned at ~|2,500 crore to be done over the next three to four years and would have capacity of 6 GWh initially
  • Above facility would be in addition to existing 1.5 GWh assembly facility, and new cell manufacturing facility may also have assembly inside
  • For technological collaboration with SVOLT (earlier part of Great wall group) Exide will pay royalty
  • The company expects to reap the benefits of first mover advantage in this space & is in discussion with more than 100 OEMs for supply of lithium Ion battery pack
  • Currently the company meets ~45% of its lead requirement from its recycling plant
  • The management said that its existing lead acid battery would find application in EVs also as an auxiliary battery

The company estimates lithium ion battery demand in India to reach 90 GWh by 2030

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