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  • CMP : 3,642.9 Chg : -35.30 (-0.96%)
  • Target : 2,200.0 (19.57%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

07 Mar 2022

Tractor growth to likely resume from FY23E ...

About The Stock

Escorts is India’s fourth largest tractor maker (11.3% FY21 market share) and also serves the domestic construction equipment, railways space.

  • FY21 sales mix – tractors 82%, construction equipment 11%, railways 7%
  • Past five year CAGR: 44.9%, 59.8% in EBITDA, PAT; cash positive b/s
Q3FY22 Results

The company posted a stable Q3FY22 performance.

  • Total operating income at ₹ 1,957.5 crores down 3% YoY
  • EBITDA margins for the quarter came in at 13.5%, up 88 bps QoQ
  • PAT declined 32.2% YoY to ₹ 194.9 crore (includes loss from associates)
What should Investors do?

Escorts’ stock price has grown ~35% CAGR over last five years from ~₹ 390 in February 2017, vastly outperforming Nifty Auto Index.

  • We retain BUY on Escorts amid Kubota joining the company as a co-promoter, robust capital efficiency and net cash b/s
Target Price and Valuation

We value Escorts at unchanged SOTP-based TP of ₹ 2,200 (25x P/E on core FY23E-24E average EPS, 10% discount on treasury shares)

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Detailed working on scaling up the company domestically as well as globally using the technology expertise and distribution reach at Kubota
  • Post dip in tractor sales volume in FY22E on account of high base, we expect tractor sales to grow at a CAGR of ~6.5% over FY22E-24E
  • Construction equipment (CE), railways (RED) growth to be faster amid expected pickup in economic activity and positive outlook for mining, construction, road building and general infra push by government
  • Operating leverage gains to expand EBITDA margins to ~13.7% by FY24E
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Escorts, in our auto OEM coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness
  • BUY with target price of ₹ 1,125

Key Financial Summary

Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21 5 year CAGR (FY16-21) FY22E FY23E FY24E 3 Year CAGR (FY21-FY24E)
Net Sales 6,196.4 5,761.0 6,929.3 15.6 7,373.9 8,321.1 9,129.5 9.6
EBITDA 733.3 675.8 1,129.2 44.9 978.8 1,094.7 1,252.8 3.5
EBITDA Margins (%) 11.8 11.7 16.3 - 13.3 13.2 13.7 -
Net Profit 484.9 485.6 873.3 59.8 755.9 940.6 1,093.3 7.8
EPS (₹) 36.8 36.8 66.2 - 57.3 71.3 82.9 -
P/E 49.0 48.9 27.2 - 31.4 25.2 21.7 -
RoNW (%) 15.6 14.2 16.2 - 9.5 10.8 11.3 -
RoCE (%) 19.3 16.2 18.7 - 10.7 10.8 11.2 -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q3FY22 Results: Better than expected numbers

  • Among segments, EAM (i.e. tractor) revenues declined 8.9% YoY to | 1,506 crores amid 19.8% volume decline to 25,325 units. Tractor ASPs remained nearly flat at ₹ 5.95 lakh
  • CE revenue rose 10.8% QoQ to ₹ 276 crore while RED posted revenue growth of 2.2% QoQ to ₹ 174 crore. CE volumes jumped 7% QoQ to 1,151 units. Present Railway order book is at >₹ 400 crore
  • Gross margins contracted 370 bps but savings were realised in employee costs (down 160 bps QoQ) as well as other expenses (down 290 bps QoQ) there resulting in ~90 bps QoQ expansion in EBITDA margins
  • Consequent PAT was down 32.2% YoY and up 12.8% QoQ at ₹ 195 crore. PAT decline was tracking loss from associates at ~₹ 6.7 crore in Q3FY22

 Q3FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • For Q3FY22, total domestic tractor industry declined 13.5% YoY to ~2.24 lakhs units, whereas decline for Escorts was at ~22.4% at 23,321 units. While increase in exports was up 34.5% YoY at 2,004 units, industry exports grew ~29.3% YoY. Exports from Kubota chain remained at <10% of total exports (but increasing) in three markets as it is in test phase
  • In Q4FY22 the company expects tractor volumes to de-grow YoY tracking high base. For full year basis, it expects domestic tractor industry to decline in the range of ~4-6%
  • Lag effect in raw material prices to continue from last quarter (~2-3% under-recovery). In the tractor segment, Escorts does not intend to hike price in Q4FY22 while aims to do same in Q1FY23E in the range of 2-3%
  • The management commentary suggests price hike, which earlier used to be ~2-3% for the whole year has been shifted to 1-2% increase in every quarter which is affecting retail customers especially the first time buyers (one-third share in total sales volume i.e. ~33%)
  • RED segment is now witnessing good traction in tendering process with current order-book ~| 400+ crore
  • Revenue from EAM division declined less despite ~20% decline in volume tracking price hike which was taken ~2-3% in December
  • Cumulative price rise in past 10-12 months is ~10% in tractor segment
  • In the CE space, volumes are seen growing at single to lower double digit in FY22E while margins are expected to take some more time to recover
  • In the RED space, sales growth for FY22E is expected at mid-20s with EBITDA margins targeted at ~15-16%
  • On the open offer front, the company expects the same to open from end of February 2022 (SEBI approval pending) and close by end of March 2022
  • Long term growth plan with Kubota to be finalised by middle of next fiscal

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