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  • CMP : 3,619.2 Chg : -19.20 (-0.53%)
  • Target : 1,840.0 (13.93%)
  • Target Period : 12-18 Month

16 May 2022

Await contours of medium term business growth plan

About The Stock

Escorts is a prominent tractor maker domestically (10.3% FY22 market share) and also serves the domestic construction equipment, railways space.

  • FY22 sales mix – tractors 77%, construction equipment 14%, railways 9%
  • Past five year CAGR: 24.1%, 35.6% in EBITDA, PAT; cash positive b/s
Q4FY22 Results

The company posted a healthy Q4FY22 performance.

  • Total operating income at ₹ 1,861.4 crore, down 15.8% YoY
  • EBITDA margins for the quarter came in at 13.1%, down 40 bps QoQ
  • PAT declined 27.2% YoY to ₹ 193.7 crore (includes loss from associates)
What should Investors do?

Escorts’ stock price has grown at ~19% CAGR over last five years from ~₹ 650 in May 2017, vastly outperforming the Nifty Auto Index.

  • We retain HOLD rating on Escorts amid muted tractor growth prospects over FY22-24E & await contours of medium term business growth plan constructed by both parties (Escort & Kubota - the new co-promoter)
Target Price and Valuation

We value Escorts at SOTP-based target price of ₹1,840 (20x P/E on core FY24E EPS, 25% discount on treasury shares).

Key Triggers for future price performance
  • Detailed working on scaling up the company domestically as well as globally using the technology expertise and distribution reach at Kubota
  • Post dip in industry volumes in FY22 (~6.3% YoY) tracking inflated base, we expect tractor sales to grow at ~8.5% CAGR in FY22-24E
  • Construction equipment (CE) and railways (RED) segments to lead the grow over FY22-24E amid pick-up in economic activity and strong order book
  • We expect sales to grow at CAGR of 14.7% over FY22-24E, with consequent margins expected at 13.5% by FY24E, amid o/p leverage gains
Alternate Stock Idea

Apart from Escorts, in our auto OEM coverage we like M&M.

  • Focused on prudent capital allocation, UV differentiation & EV proactiveness

 

  • BUY with a target price of ₹ 1,045

Key Financial Summary

Key Financials FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22P 5 year CAGR (FY17-22P) FY23E FY24E 2 year CAGR (FY22P-24E)
Net Sales 6,196.4 5,761.0 6,929.3 7,152.6 11.8 8,583.0 9,410.6 14.7
EBITDA 733.3 675.8 1,129.2 951.4 24.1 1,094.4 1,270.4 15.6
EBITDA Margins (%) 11.8 11.7 16.3 13.3 - 12.8 13.5 -
Net Profit 484.9 485.6 873.3 736.3 35.6 924.6 1,085.1 21.4
EPS (₹) 36.8 36.8 66.2 55.8 - 70.1 82.3 -
P/E 49.0 48.9 27.2 32.2 - 25.7 21.9 -
RoNW (%) 15.6 14.2 16.2 9.3 - 10.6 11.2 -
RoCE (%) 19.3 16.2 18.7 10.4 - 10.9 11.5 -
- - - - - - - - -
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research

Key takeaways of recent quarter & conference call highlights

Q4FY22 Results: Better than expected numbers

  • Among segments, EAM (i.e. tractor) revenues declined 21.6% YoY to
    | 1,363 crore amid 32.8% volume decline to 21,895 units. Tractor ASPs surprised positively at | 6.23 lakh, up 4.7% QoQ
  • CE revenue rose 15.5% QoQ to | 319 crore while RED was flat QoQ to | 173 crore. CE volumes jumped 11.7% QoQ to 1,286 units. Present railway order book is at >| 440 crore
  • Gross margins contracted ~20 bps but savings were realised in employee costs (down ~35 bps QoQ); other expenses (up 60 bps QoQ)
  • Consequent PAT was down 27.2% YoY and flat QoQ at | 193.7 crore. PAT includes loss from associates at ~| 8.5 crore in Q4FY22
  • The company declared a dividend of | 7/share for FY22 with cash & cash equivalents amounting to ~ | 5,000 crore as on FY22 end

 

Q4FY22 Earnings Conference Call highlights

  • Margins remain muted tracking lower volumes & elevated prices of inputs. However, management is optimistic about demand recovery in H1FY22 tracking healthy wheat production & positive farmer sentiments; April witnessed 41% YoY growth (industry level), albeit on a lower base
  • The market declined 100 bps YoY at 10.3% as of FY22, largely tracking supply side issues further aggravated by a loss in key markets such as Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh due to price hike
  • Under recovery in cost on account of hiked prices was ~4-5% of sales value. Escorts undertook a price hike in mid-April 2022 to the extent of 2% with another price hike expected in Q2FY23 to offset rising input costs
  • The management guided for double digit growth in the railway segment with current order book at >| 440 crore. Margin in railway remained subdued due to higher share of imports, adverse currency movement & fixed price contracts
  • With respect to Kubota formal plan with respect to distribution channel, branding, etc, will be disclosed in Q2FY23 or Q3FY23. Also, Kubota market share in the southern region is high where Escorts has minimal share to act as a synergy, going ahead
  • Input prices rose ~3% QoQ. To counter this, the company has taken a price hike of ~2-2.5% in Q4FY22. Further, management guided about muted margin in Q1FY23 tracking high commodity cost dent to extent of 4-5%
  • Semiconductor shortage did not affect production much as they are not used in Indian variants but slight impact on exported models as they use two to three chips per tractor due to which there is an order backlog in the export market
  • Emission norms for transition to BS-IV shifted from April 2022 to October 2022 for tractors above 50 HP whereas the same for the rest (>25 HP) would be applicable from April 2024. With cost impact of
    ~
    50-60k for >50 HP tractor; whereas same for <50 HP would be higher at >1 lakh

  • For Q4FY22, total domestic tractor industry declined 25.7% YoY whereas decline for Escorts was at ~32.8% at 21,895 units

  • Management foresees H1FY22 to be strong in terms of demand

  • Escorts launched one E-tractor in FY22 for foreign market and is ramping up production from current 60-70 units/ month to ~100 units/month

  • The management is focused on increasing its market share in weaker parts through four to five projects already in play, coupled with new launches

  • Escorts & Kubota combined market share was at ~14% for FY22.

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I/We, Shashank Kanodia, CFA, MBA (Capital Markets), and Raghvendra Goyal, CA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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